Executive summary
Eastern DRC remains one of the most complex armed-group environments in Africa, with overlapping national, regional and local interests operating across North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri.
For extractive and humanitarian operators, the practical risk is control-change: the actor governing a route or site can shift within weeks, invalidating access agreements.
Sources · [2] UCDP · [5] FEWS NET
Full report
Operating implications
Plan for episodic evacuation and relocation rather than continuous presence. Maintain dual-sourced logistics. Treat access agreements as perishable and re-verify monthly.
Sources · [2] UCDP · [5] FEWS NET
Key findings
- Route control in the east changes faster than most access agreements can be renegotiated.
- Artisanal mining zones concentrate armed-group revenue interest and therefore violence risk.
- Goma and Bukavu remain functional operating bases but with periodic airport and border disruption.
- Supply chain due diligence exposure is a compliance risk as material as the physical security risk.
Analyst assessment
We assess with high confidence that conflict dynamics in the east will persist through 2027, with localised improvements offset by displacement elsewhere.
Related reports
Footnotes & sources
- [1] ACLED: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, Africa event recordsL1 Conflict · reliability A
- [2] UCDP: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, organised violence datasetL1 Conflict · reliability A
- [3] UN OCHA / ReliefWeb: Situation reports, access snapshots and humanitarian updatesL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [4] GDACS: Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System alertsL2 Early warning · reliability B
- [5] FEWS NET: Food security outlooks and alertsL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [6] NASA FIRMS / Copernicus: Active fire detections and open satellite imagery for corroborationL3 GEOINT · reliability B
- [7] GDELT Project: Global media event and tone monitoringL5 Strategic · reliability C
- [8] Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa): Regional political and security analysisL5 Strategic · reliability B
- [9] Mazin Intel analyst desk: Practitioner interviews, field reporting and imagery verificationL6 Verification · reliability B
- [10] OpenSanctions: Sanctions, PEP and enforcement screening dataL5 Strategic · reliability A
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