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Situation Room

Africa Security Situation Room

A dated research overview of significant developments, emerging risks and key events affecting the African operating environment. Country indicators are independent analyst judgements from public sources; this is not a staffed operations centre, live tracker or emergency-response service.

Public-source research workspace

East Africa spatial intelligence

Significant developments, risk indicators and source-labelled records across Africa, the Horn and Red Sea corridor. This is periodic open-source research, not live monitoring.

Period
Records · last 30d
+26
26
Collected incident records held for the selected period.
High / critical
18
Records assessed at high or critical severity.
Countries with records
17
Out of 54 sovereign states rated.
Elevated indicators
15
States rated high or critical on the selected indicator.
Operational layers
Overall risk
Analyst-assignedlast reviewed Oct 2026

Interactive map of overall risk across Africa. Focus the map and use the arrow keys to move between countries, Home and End for the first and last country, Enter or Space to open the focused country profile, and Escape to leave the map. Press the question mark key, or use the keyboard controls button, to show or hide the full list of shortcuts. A text list of every country and its rating follows the map.

Low(14)
Moderate(25)
Severe(9)
Critical(6)
54 sovereign states rated · Western Sahara shown as a disputed territory and excluded from totals
Country ranking

By overall risk

Click a country on the map for the full risk profile.

Event timeline
Most recent records · last 30 days
Collected records
  1. Critical· Red Sea· 12m ago
    Anti-ship missile targets commercial tanker in Bab el-Mandeb
    Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Red Sea corridor · UKMTO · Mazin Intel maritime desk
  2. High· Piracy· 47m ago
    Attempted boarding of bulk carrier off Eyl coast
    80nm east of Eyl, Somalia · EU NAVFOR · in-country network
  3. Critical· Terrorism· 2h ago
    VBIED detonates near government complex in Mogadishu
    KM4 junction, Mogadishu, Somalia · Mazin Intel Horn of Africa desk
  4. High· Terrorism· 2h ago
    JNIM ambush on military convoy in Sahel triangle
    Tillabéri region, Niger · OSINT · liaison networks
  5. Critical· Armed conflict· 3h ago
    Fresh RSF–SAF clashes reported in El Fasher
    El Fasher, North Darfur, Sudan · Mazin Intel conflict cell
  6. High· Red Sea· 4h ago
    USV sighted transiting southern Red Sea
    Southern Red Sea approaches, Red Sea corridor · CTF 153 · UKMTO
  7. High· Cyber· 5h ago
    Ransomware campaign targeting regional banking sector
    Multiple, Kenya · Mazin Intel cyber threat intel
  8. Moderate· Civil unrest· 6h ago
    Cost-of-living protests planned in Nairobi CBD
    Nairobi CBD, Kenya · Mazin Intel East Africa desk
  9. High· Political· 7h ago
    Government reshuffle triggers uncertainty in Bamako
    Bamako, Mali · Political risk desk
  10. Moderate· Piracy· 8h ago
    Suspicious approach — Gulf of Guinea
    120nm south of Lomé, Togo · MDAT-GoG
  11. High· Armed conflict· 9h ago
    M23 advances reported in North Kivu
    Rutshuru territory, DR Congo · MONUSCO · Mazin Intel field
  12. High· Terrorism· 10h ago
    ISCAP raid on village in Cabo Delgado
    Macomia district, Mozambique · Mazin Intel Southern Africa desk
  13. High· Elections· 11h ago
    Contested presidential vote count enters second week
    Kinshasa, DR Congo · Mazin Intel political desk
  14. Moderate· Elections· 12h ago
    Campaign rally clashes ahead of general election
    Kaduna, Nigeria · OSINT
Threat trend · last 30 days
Records per period
Collected records
30 days agoNow
Distribution
Category and severity
  • Terrorism3
  • Airport disruption3
  • Natural disaster3
  • Red Sea2
  • Piracy2
  • Armed conflict2
  • Cyber2
  • Critical4
  • High14
  • Moderate8
  • Info0
Current incidents

Categories in the current research window

A view of the 12 incident categories represented in the stored Africa and Red Sea record set. Counts are calculated from records currently displayed, not from continuous or complete monitoring, and records may carry more than one category.

3 active
Terrorism
31 critical
2 active
Civil unrest
21 severe
2 active
Piracy
21 severe
2 active
Red Sea
21 critical
2 active
Armed conflict
21 critical
2 active
Elections
21 severe
2 active
Border closures
21 severe
3 active
Airport disruption
32 severe
2 active
Health alert
21 severe
3 active
Natural disaster
31 critical
1 active
Political
11 severe
2 active
Cyber
21 severe
Recent records

Incident stream

Filter by country, threat type, date range and severity. Records are added as they are collected and reviewed; the verification status of each incident is shown on the item.

Live incident feed
Africa & Red Sea theatre
Threat type
Country
Date range
Severity
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Research note. Ratings are Mowlid Ali's independent analytical judgements based on named public and open sources. Evidence availability varies considerably by country, so these indicators are not a substitute for an organisation-specific risk assessment or official guidance.

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Records published, last 14 days

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Weekly Security Brief

Compiles the last 7 days of intelligence from all six collection layers, grouped by location, with severity, layer attribution and a numbered sources appendix — ready to share with your country teams. The brief is issued in English. Download the citations appendix as CSV — filtered to any country or region subset — to analyse or reuse the underlying source records in a spreadsheet.

Conflict & armed groupsEarly warning & emergenciesGEOINT & situational awarenessCybersecurityStrategic & political riskVerification & corroboration

For shipowners, insurers and risk teams

Need a decision-ready briefing on this risk?

Country, port and voyage briefings with named sources, stated confidence and clear evidence limits.