Research environment · Country risk
Country Risk Laboratory
Eleven countries assessed in the same structure, so the reasoning can be compared rather than taken on trust: the operating environment as it stands, the threats with intent and capability, the vulnerabilities that let harm succeed, and the operational considerations that follow.
Analyst assessment from public sources, written for practitioners. Threat levels describe the general environment for a civilian organisation; they are not a substitute for an organisation's own assessment of its own exposure.
Horn of Africa
Somalia
An armed opposition retaining the capability to mount complex and explosive attacks in urban centres, contested control on inter-city roads, and a security transition that shifts responsibility faster than it builds capacity.
Open assessmentEthiopia
A country where the security picture is regional rather than national: Addis Ababa functions normally while armed conflict, communication restrictions and access denial persist in parts of Amhara, Oromia and the Tigray periphery.
Open assessmentSudan
Active war between organised military forces, with urban ground fighting, air and artillery use, collapsed services, and humanitarian access determined by front lines and by permissions from the parties.
Open assessmentEritrea
Low reported criminal and armed threat to foreign civilians, but a tightly controlled operating environment where the principal risks are administrative, legal and informational rather than violent.
Open assessmentDjibouti
A comparatively stable base and logistics hub whose risk profile is shaped by its neighbours, by maritime threat in the Bab al-Mandab approaches, and by extreme heat rather than by armed violence ashore.
Open assessmentThreat levels use UK terminology.
East Africa
South Sudan
Localised armed violence, subnational and communal conflict, and one of the world's most consistently documented environments for violence against aid workers, compounded by seasonal roads and thin medical capability.
Open assessmentKenya
A stable regional hub with two distinct problems: a persistent cross-border threat in the north-east and coastal hinterland, and urban crime and protest dynamics in Nairobi and Mombasa.
Open assessmentUganda
Generally permissive for civilian operations, with concentrated risk in the western border districts near the DRC, political and public-order friction around elections, and criminality in Kampala.
Open assessmentTanzania
A largely permissive environment where crime, road safety and regulatory compliance dominate the risk picture, with a localised watch item in the south-east near the Mozambique border.
Open assessmentRwanda
Low crime and a highly ordered operating environment, with the material risks sitting in regional spillover from eastern DRC, in political and information sensitivity, and in road safety.
Open assessmentBurundi
Constrained operating conditions with political sensitivity, localised armed incidents and regional tension with Rwanda and eastern DRC, alongside routine crime and weak road and medical infrastructure.
Open assessmentThreat levels use UK terminology.
North Africa
Algeria
A strong internal security apparatus keeps the northern cities stable, while the long southern borders with Mali, Niger and Libya remain exposed to armed groups and smuggling.
Open assessmentEgypt
A broadly stable state with heavy security presence; the North Sinai insurgency is largely contained, while Red Sea shipping disruption and Sudan's war shape the external picture.
Open assessmentLibya
Divided governance between Tripoli and the east, a dense armed-group landscape and fragile infrastructure mean clashes can erupt in the capital with little notice.
Open assessmentMorocco
One of the continent's most stable operating environments; terrorism risk is managed by capable services and Western Sahara remains a diplomatic, not a daily security, issue.
Open assessmentTunisia
Political consolidation under President Saied and economic strain sit alongside a contained but persistent jihadist threat in the western mountains.
Open assessmentWestern Sahara
A disputed territory under Moroccan administration where the 1991 ceasefire broke down in 2020; low-level exchanges continue along the berm.
Open assessmentThreat levels use UK terminology.
Sahel
Burkina Faso
Junta rule and a contest with JNIM and Islamic State Sahel across large parts of the country; towns under blockade and attacks on civilians and forces are frequent.
Open assessmentChad
Transitional politics after 2021, Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Lake Chad basin and the arrival of refugees from Sudan's war drive a complex picture.
Open assessmentMali
A junta-led state facing JNIM blockades and Islamic State Sahel violence, after the departure of UN and French forces and the arrival of Russian-backed forces.
Open assessmentMauritania
A Sahelian state that has largely insulated itself from jihadist violence, though the Malian border and refugee flows at Mbera remain pressure points.
Open assessmentNiger
After the 2023 coup, JNIM and Islamic State Sahel remain active in the tri-border area and the south-west, and humanitarian access depends on the authorities.
Open assessmentThreat levels use UK terminology.
West Africa
Benin
The northern park belt bordering Burkina Faso and Niger is increasingly contested by JNIM, while the coastal south remains stable.
Open assessmentCabo Verde
A stable island democracy; the main issues are drug-transit crime and petty theft.
Open assessmentCôte d'Ivoire
A regional economic engine with a permissive Abidjan, exposed in the north to spillover from Burkina Faso and Mali.
Open assessmentGambia
A small, stable state continuing post-Jammeh democratic consolidation.
Open assessmentGhana
A traditionally stable democracy whose northern border regions face growing pressure from Sahel insecurity and local chieftaincy conflicts.
Open assessmentGuinea
A junta-led transition with political demonstrations in Conakry and an active mining sector.
Open assessmentGuinea-Bissau
A history of coups and drug-transit vulnerability; the physical threat to visitors is low outside political flashpoints.
Open assessmentLiberia
Post-war and post-Ebola recovery on track; urban crime is the main daily concern.
Open assessmentNigeria
The continent's largest country faces several threats at once: Boko Haram and ISWAP in the north-east, banditry and mass kidnapping in the north-west, separatist violence in the south-east and crime in the Gulf of Guinea.
Open assessmentSenegal
Historically one of the region's most stable democracies; political tension flares periodically in Dakar and Casamance remains largely quiet.
Open assessmentSierra Leone
Post-conflict recovery is consolidated; politics is competitive, with sporadic protest and a November 2023 attack in Freetown.
Open assessmentTogo
A small coastal state with a growing JNIM threat in the northern Savanes region and exposure to Gulf of Guinea maritime risk.
Open assessmentThreat levels use UK terminology.
Central Africa
Angola
A broadly stable state with economic strain, urban crime in Luanda and a separatist issue in the Cabinda enclave.
Open assessmentCameroon
Three crises at once: the Anglophone conflict in the North-West and South-West, Boko Haram in the Far North and refugee pressure in the east; the main cities are largely calm.
Open assessmentCentral African Republic
Armed groups control or contest much of the interior, while Bangui is comparatively secure under UN and Russian-backed forces.
Open assessmentCongo
A relatively stable urban environment; earlier flashpoints in the Pool department have subsided.
Open assessmentDR Congo
A vast state where the M23 offensive, ADF violence and over a hundred armed groups drive conflict in the east, while Kinshasa is a very different environment.
Open assessmentEquatorial Guinea
A highly centralised political system with little internal violence but high administrative and reputational risk.
Open assessmentGabon
A broadly stable environment after the 2023 transition, centred on Libreville and Port-Gentil.
Open assessmentSao Tome and Principe
A small island state with few internal security concerns; Gulf of Guinea maritime activity is the main exposure.
Open assessmentThreat levels use UK terminology.
Southern Africa
Botswana
One of Africa's most stable democracies, with a peaceful transfer of power in 2024; the risks are mainly crime and road safety.
Open assessmentEswatini
An absolute monarchy where pro-democracy unrest erupted in 2021; the situation is calmer but grievances remain.
Open assessmentLesotho
Political volatility and high levels of violent crime, including gang violence linked to illegal mining.
Open assessmentMalawi
Politically stable; the main risks are weather-driven, such as flooding and cyclones, plus economic strain.
Open assessmentMozambique
An Islamic State-linked insurgency persists in Cabo Delgado, post-election unrest in 2024–25 was deadly, and the coast is highly exposed to cyclones.
Open assessmentNamibia
A stable democracy; opportunistic crime and long-distance road travel are the main concerns.
Open assessmentSouth Africa
A strong institutional democracy with very high rates of violent crime, infrastructure strain and occasional unrest such as July 2021.
Open assessmentZambia
A stable democracy facing debt strain and drought-driven power cuts.
Open assessmentZimbabwe
A politically controlled environment with economic volatility, currency instability and restrictions on civil society.
Open assessmentThreat levels use UK terminology.
Indian Ocean
Comoros
A small island state with a history of coups and political tension, and exposure to cyclones.
Open assessmentMadagascar
Political instability, crime and cattle-raiding banditry in the south, plus severe cyclone exposure; protests in late 2025 led to a military takeover.
Open assessmentMauritius
A stable, prosperous democracy; risks are mainly petty crime and cyclones.
Open assessmentSeychelles
A stable island state; Somali piracy in the wider Indian Ocean is the main regional maritime concern.
Open assessmentThreat levels use UK terminology.