Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: threat to merchant shipping

01 · Executive overview

Corridor risk at a glance

Bab el-Mandeb

Severe

Stable trend · High confidence

Gulf of Aden

Severe

Stable trend · High confidence

Somali Basin

Substantial

Rising trend · Moderate confidence

This sample reproduces the existing assessment, not a live threat update. Its assessment date is not recorded. Reference incidents are historical; their dates do not establish when the assessment was reviewed. Source links include publisher and advisory pages, not necessarily individual incident notices. Confirm current advisories before any voyage decision.

The narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti/Eritrea remains the single most dangerous commercial passage in the region. Houthi forces have used anti-ship missiles, drones, uncrewed surface vessels and a helicopter-borne boarding against merchant ships since late 2023.

Pre-2023 roughly a tenth of seaborne trade; transits fell by more than half after Houthi attacks began in November 2023.

Sources: UKMTO · Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) · EU NAVFOR Aspides

Two overlapping threats: Houthi strikes reaching well east of the strait, and a revival of Somali piracy since December 2023, with dhows and fishing vessels used as mother ships.

Main approach to Bab el-Mandeb from the Indian Ocean.

Sources: EU NAVFOR Atalanta · MSCHOA · IMB Piracy Reporting Centre

Pirate action groups have operated several hundred miles off the Somali coast since the MV Ruen and MV Abdullah hijacks. Activity follows the monsoon calendar.

Indian Ocean route between the Gulf of Aden, Kenya and the Cape.

Sources: EU NAVFOR Atalanta · IMB Piracy Reporting Centre

Historical reference incidents

Selected events from the existing reference registry, newest first. This is not a complete incident feed.

1. 6 Nov 2025Hellas Aphrodite (Piracy / boarding, Somali Basin). Tanker boarded by Somali pirates far offshore; crew in citadel until naval forces arrived. EU NAVFOR Atalanta
2. 29 Sept 2025Minervagracht (Missile / drone, Gulf of Aden). Dutch cargo ship hit and set on fire; one crew member later died. EU NAVFOR Aspides
3. 7 Jul 2025Eternity C (Sinking, Southern Red Sea). Bulk carrier sunk; several crew killed and others reported taken by Houthi forces. Reuters
4. 6 Jul 2025Magic Seas (Sinking, Southern Red Sea). Bulk carrier sunk by Houthi attack, ending a months-long lull. UKMTO
5. 21 Aug 2024Sounion (Missile / drone, Southern Red Sea). Loaded tanker attacked and set alight, creating a major oil-spill risk. EU NAVFOR Aspides
6. 12 Jun 2024Tutor (Sinking, Southern Red Sea). Bulk carrier struck by an explosive boat; one crew member killed; ship later sank. UKMTO
7. 12 Mar 2024MV Abdullah (Hijack, Somali Basin). Bangladeshi bulk carrier hijacked by Somali pirates; released after ransom in April. IMB Piracy Reporting Centre
8. 6 Mar 2024True Confidence (Missile / drone, Gulf of Aden off Aden). Three crew killed, the first deaths from the Houthi campaign. UKMTO
9. 2 Mar 2024Rubymar (Sinking, Bab el-Mandeb). Fertiliser carrier sank after a February missile strike, the first ship lost in the campaign. Reuters
10. 26 Jan 2024Marlin Luanda (Missile / drone, Gulf of Aden). Tanker set on fire by a Houthi anti-ship missile. UKMTO
11. 19 Nov 2023Galaxy Leader (Hijack, Southern Red Sea). Houthi forces seized the car carrier by helicopter; crew held until January 2025. Reuters