The indicators to watch in every country, drawn from each published country assessment. Choose a region or country to narrow the board.
Horn of AfricaCRITICAL
Sudan
Watch for
- Sustained hostilities between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, including indirect fire and air attack affecting residential districts.
- Armed looting of humanitarian premises, vehicles, warehouses and convoys, reported repeatedly by agencies.
- Detention, harassment and interrogation of aid staff at checkpoints, and pressure on national staff over perceived affiliation.
- Explosive remnants of war in areas where fighting has passed, including unexploded ordnance in urban plots and along roads.
- Communications and banking collapse in parts of the country, which is a threat to duty of care as much as an inconvenience.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Any fixed, identifiable premises holding fuel, vehicles or commodities is a looting target regardless of flag or signage.
- Front lines move; movement plans built on last week's control map are wrong.
- Cross-line movement requires permission from more than one party, and each permission can be withdrawn.
- National staff and their families remain in place when international staff relocate, carrying the residual exposure.
Exposure
- Khartoum State, Darfur states and Kordofan, where ground fighting and air attack have been concentrated.
- Port Sudan and eastern Sudan as the main entry, logistics and relocation route.
- Cross-line and cross-border convoy movement, including from Chad and South Sudan.
Impact
- Death and serious injury of staff, including from indirect fire with no attack directed at the organisation at all.
- Total loss of assets, stock and premises through looting, and loss of the capacity to deliver at all in an area.
- Prolonged detention of staff, and severe welfare consequences for national staff and their dependants.
Mitigation
- Programme criticality review: agree in writing which activities justify presence, and stop the rest.
- Minimum footprint, no fuel or vehicle stockpiles at staffed premises; disperse stock; keep cash holdings low and documented.
- Cross-line movement only with permissions from every relevant party, confirmed the same day, with a no-go default.
- National staff support built in from the start: relocation options, salary continuity, family contact arrangements, and a decision about what is owed if international staff withdraw.
- Explosive-ordnance awareness briefing for all staff, route clearance information from mine-action actors, and a rule against entering unswept damaged buildings.
- Relocation and hibernation plans written, resourced and rehearsed, with trigger indicators agreed before they are needed.
Assessed risks
- Staff killed or injured by indirect fire or air attack in a contested urban area L4 × I5
- Armed looting of premises, vehicles or warehoused stock L5 × I4
- Detention or interrogation of staff at a checkpoint or cross-line crossing L4 × I4
- Death or injury from explosive remnants of war in an area fighting has passed through L3 × I5
- National staff and dependants left exposed after international relocation L4 × I4
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
SahelSEVERE
Burkina Faso
Watch for
- JNIM and Islamic State Sahel attacks on military posts, convoys and civilians, including mass-casualty events.
- Blockades of towns in the north and east cutting road access.
- Kidnapping of foreigners and aid workers.
- Restrictions on media, civil society and foreign organisations by the authorities.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Burkina Faso's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso.
- Road movement outside the capital, and humanitarian air access to besieged towns.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Use humanitarian air service where possible; no unassessed road travel.
- Minimise expatriate footprint outside the capital.
- Maintain clear registration and neutral communications.
Assessed risks
- Mass-casualty attack or ambush on road movement L5 × I5
- Kidnapping of foreign staff L4 × I5
- Expulsion or suspension by authorities L3 × I4
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Central AfricaSEVERE
Cameroon
Watch for
- Separatist and military violence in the North-West and South-West, including kidnappings and lockdowns.
- Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks in the Far North.
- Armed groups and kidnapping along the border with the Central African Republic.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Cameroon's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Yaoundé and Douala.
- Humanitarian operations in Bamenda, Buea and Maroua.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Low-profile, assessed movement and observance of lockdowns.
- Escorted movement and restricted footprint.
- Basic briefings.
Assessed risks
- Kidnapping in the Anglophone regions L4 × I5
- Attack in the Far North L4 × I5
- Crime in Douala L3 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Central AfricaSEVERE
Central African Republic
Watch for
- Armed-group violence and banditry outside Bangui.
- Attacks on humanitarian convoys and premises, among the highest rates globally.
- Explosive devices on roads in the north-west.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Central African Republic's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Bangui and humanitarian hubs (Bambari, Bria, Bossangoa).
- Road movement between hubs.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Convoy discipline and humanitarian air service.
- Route assessment and UN advisories.
- Hibernation stocks and safe rooms.
Assessed risks
- Attack or robbery of convoys L4 × I4
- Explosive device on roads L3 × I5
- Clashes near humanitarian bases L3 × I4
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
SahelSEVERE
Chad
Watch for
- Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks in the Lake Chad area.
- Rebel groups operating from the north and from Libya.
- Spillover from Sudan's war in the east, including armed movement and refugee pressure.
- Political tension and protest in N'Djamena.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Chad's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in N'Djamena and humanitarian hubs in the east (Abéché, Adré).
- Road movement in the east and Lake region.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Escorted or no movement in the Lake region.
- Daylight movement in convoy with check-ins.
- Hibernation plan and stocks.
Assessed risks
- Attack in the Lake Chad region L4 × I5
- Armed banditry on eastern roads L4 × I4
- Unrest in N'Djamena L3 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Central AfricaSEVERE
DR Congo
Watch for
- M23 control of Goma and Bukavu since early 2025, with fighting along front lines.
- ADF massacres of civilians in Beni, Lubero and Ituri.
- CODECO and other militia violence in Ituri.
- Unrest and crime in Kinshasa, including attacks on embassies in January 2025.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside DR Congo's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Kinshasa, Goma, Bukavu and Bunia.
- Road movement in North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Relocation triggers and hibernation stocks.
- Assessed movement, escorts and short check-ins.
- Monitor events and avoid diplomatic districts during protests.
Assessed risks
- Caught in front-line fighting in the Kivus L4 × I5
- Ambush or kidnapping on roads in the east L4 × I5
- Unrest in Kinshasa L3 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
North AfricaSEVERE
Libya
Watch for
- Armed-group clashes in and around Tripoli over territory, revenue and appointments.
- Kidnapping for ransom and arbitrary detention by armed groups.
- Residual Islamic State presence in the south and centre.
- Migrant smuggling and trafficking networks along the coast and southern routes.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Libya's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Tripoli, Benghazi and Misrata, often in compounds.
- Road and air movement between east and west, and travel to the south.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Maintain hibernation stocks and a tested relocation plan.
- Low-profile movement with trusted local fixers and short check-ins.
- Hold cash, fuel and power contingencies.
Assessed risks
- Caught in armed clashes in Tripoli L4 × I4
- Kidnapping or arbitrary detention L3 × I5
- Collapse of power, fuel or banking services L3 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
SahelSEVERE
Mali
Watch for
- JNIM attacks, including in Bamako (September 2024 attack) and fuel blockades of the capital.
- Islamic State Sahel violence in Ménaka and Gao.
- Kidnapping of foreigners.
- Abuses linked to military operations, affecting community acceptance.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Mali's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Bamako.
- Road movement on main supply routes, and air access to northern towns.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Fuel, cash and hibernation stocks; relocation triggers.
- Minimal expatriate movement outside Bamako.
- Air movement where possible.
Assessed risks
- Attack or blockade affecting Bamako L4 × I5
- Kidnapping L4 × I5
- Ambush on road movement L5 × I5
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Southern AfricaSEVERE
Mozambique
Watch for
- Islamic State Mozambique attacks in Cabo Delgado and Niassa.
- Post-election protest and lethal policing in Maputo and other cities.
- Kidnap for ransom targeting business people in Maputo.
- Cyclone and flood hazards.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Mozambique's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Maputo, Pemba and Nampula.
- Operations in Cabo Delgado, including LNG areas.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Restrict movement to assessed areas and maintain relocation plans.
- Hibernation plan.
- Low profile and varied routines.
Assessed risks
- Insurgent attack in Cabo Delgado L4 × I5
- Unrest in Maputo L3 × I3
- Kidnap for ransom L3 × I4
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
SahelSEVERE
Niger
Watch for
- Islamic State Sahel and JNIM attacks in Tillabéri and Tahoua.
- Boko Haram and ISWAP in Diffa.
- Kidnapping of foreigners.
- Restrictions and suspensions affecting foreign organisations.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Niger's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Niamey.
- Road movement in Tillabéri, Tahoua and Diffa.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Escorted or air movement only.
- Minimise expatriate footprint.
- Maintain registration and relationships.
Assessed risks
- Attack on road movement in the west L5 × I5
- Kidnapping L4 × I5
- Suspension by authorities L3 × I4
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
West AfricaSEVERE
Nigeria
Watch for
- Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa.
- Armed bandits carrying out mass kidnappings in Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna and Niger states.
- IPOB-linked enforcement of sit-at-home orders and attacks in the south-east.
- Kidnap for ransom on highways nationwide, and maritime crime in the Niger Delta.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Nigeria's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt.
- Humanitarian operations in Maiduguri and the north-east.
- Road movement between cities.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Air travel between cities; escorted road movement.
- Humanitarian air service and garrison-town footprint.
- Residence security and vetted transport.
Assessed risks
- Kidnap for ransom on road movement L4 × I5
- Attack in the north-east L4 × I5
- Crime in Lagos and Port Harcourt L3 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Horn of AfricaSEVERE
Somalia
Watch for
- Al-Shabaab retains intent and demonstrated capability against government, security and hospitality targets in Mogadishu and regional capitals, including vehicle-borne devices and coordinated assault teams.
- Informal checkpoints and taxation on arterial routes outside government-held towns, reported consistently by transporters and traders.
- Clan and political competition, including federal member state disputes, capable of producing armed confrontation with little notice.
- Criminality in urban centres, armed robbery, vehicle theft, opportunistic abduction, that is separate from the conflict but affects staff more often.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Predictable routines: fixed arrival and departure times, single approach roads, and repeated use of the same hotels and meeting venues.
- Premises with limited stand-off from a public road, and guarding contracted without a written security standard.
- Movement approved on the basis of habit rather than a route assessment, with no written abort criteria held by the vehicle commander.
- Reliance on a single communications channel, and check-in schedules that would take hours to reveal a missing vehicle.
Exposure
- National and international staff in Mogadishu, Baidoa, Kismayo, Garowe and Hargeisa, largely during working hours with visitor traffic on set days.
- Road movement on the Mogadishu–Afgooye, Mogadishu–Jowhar and Baidoa corridors, and airport transfers through areas used by officials.
- Distribution and monitoring visits in rural districts where control changes between towns.
Impact
- Fatalities and serious injury from blast and fragmentation, with prolonged staff-care and family-liaison obligations.
- Loss of a vehicle or team to abduction, with months of crisis management and no guarantee of outcome.
- Programme suspension, contractual failure with donors, and loss of the community acceptance that makes access possible.
Mitigation
- Site selection with measurable stand-off, controlled single entry with search, blast film, a designated safe room and a drill rhythm that is actually run.
- Journey management per movement: route assessment, varied timing and routing, day-of-travel road check, named vehicle commander and written abort criteria.
- Checkpoint mapping with transporters, a documented no-payment position, scripted responses and one named negotiation point of contact.
- Crisis management plan rehearsed with named roles, tested contact tree, and a decision log kept from the first hour.
- Acceptance work: transparent selection criteria, community feedback channels, and a public position on independence that partners can repeat.
Assessed risks
- Staff caught in the effects of an explosive attack on a nearby government, security or hotel target L4 × I5
- Ambush or roadside device against vehicle movement on an inter-city corridor L3 × I5
- Detention, extortion or long delay at an informal checkpoint L4 × I3
- Abduction of staff for ransom or leverage L2 × I5
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate to high on the pattern of urban attacks and route insecurity
East AfricaSEVERE
South Sudan
Watch for
- Subnational armed conflict and communal violence, including cattle-related raiding and revenge cycles in Jonglei, Warrap, Unity and Upper Nile.
- Ambush, armed robbery and harassment of aid convoys and river movement, documented year after year in aid-security reporting.
- Sexual violence against staff and beneficiaries, which must be assessed and controlled explicitly rather than folded into general crime.
- Interference by armed actors and local authorities in staffing, procurement and beneficiary selection.
- Political friction around transition and election timelines that can escalate quickly in specific states.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Field bases with limited perimeter control, and guarding arrangements that would not withstand an armed group.
- Movement dependent on a small number of roads that are impassable in the wet season, forcing air or river movement with different risks.
- Medical capability far from field bases, making an ordinary injury a serious event.
- Insufficient female staff representation in security decision-making, and reporting routes that discourage disclosure.
Exposure
- Field bases and mobile teams in Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile, Warrap and the Equatorias.
- Road movement in the dry season, river movement on the Nile corridor, and air movement to airstrips with no security at the receiving end.
- Distribution sites where large crowds gather and armed actors are present nearby.
Impact
- Death and serious injury of staff from ambush, crossfire and armed robbery.
- Sexual violence, with severe and lasting harm and an organisational duty that extends for years.
- Suspension of delivery in the areas with the greatest need, and asset loss that removes capacity for the season.
Mitigation
- Journey management with seasonal planning: pre-positioned stock before the rains, and no reliance on a single route or mode.
- Site standards written into guarding contracts, with perimeter, lighting, access control and a rehearsed lock-down.
- Explicit sexual-violence risk assessment and controls: accommodation arrangements, movement pairing, trained focal points, confidential reporting and survivor-centred support.
- Medical capability mapped before deployment: first-aid trained staff on every movement, documented referral, and a named provider for escalation.
- Community acceptance work at distribution sites, crowd-management planning, and a documented position on interference in selection and recruitment.
Assessed risks
- Ambush or armed robbery against a road or river movement L4 × I4
- Staff caught in communal or subnational armed violence near a field base L4 × I4
- Sexual violence against a staff member L3 × I5
- Serious medical emergency at a location distant from adequate care L3 × I5
- Armed or administrative interference in selection, procurement or recruitment L4 × I3
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate to high
West AfricaSUBSTANTIAL
Benin
Watch for
- JNIM attacks on soldiers and rangers in the W and Pendjari park areas.
- Kidnapping risk in the far north.
- Political tension around elections.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Benin's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Cotonou and Porto-Novo.
- Travel to Atacora and Alibori.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Treat border park areas as no-go.
- Authority-coordinated travel only.
- Monitor the electoral calendar.
Assessed risks
- Attack in the northern parks L4 × I5
- Kidnapping in the north L3 × I5
- Election-related unrest L2 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Horn of AfricaSUBSTANTIAL
Ethiopia
Watch for
- Armed confrontation between federal forces and organised armed groups in parts of Amhara and Oromia, including attacks on road users and abduction for ransom.
- Unresolved tension in and around Tigray and disputed boundary areas, with the risk of renewed escalation.
- Inter-communal violence and displacement in Oromia–Somali and Afar periphery areas.
- Administrative threats to operations: movement permissions withheld, communication shutdowns, and pressure on staff of particular ethnic backgrounds.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Programmes designed around road movement between regional capitals, where control is not continuous.
- Reliance on mobile networks and internet for check-ins, in a context where shutdowns are used as a control measure.
- National staff exposed to identity-based pressure at checkpoints, with no written protocol for what they may and may not carry.
- Access negotiated informally with local authorities rather than through a documented, escalatable arrangement.
Exposure
- Field offices and monitoring visits in Amhara, Oromia, Afar and the Tigray periphery.
- Long-distance road movement, including night arrival at regional towns where curfews change with little notice.
- Addis-based staff and visitors, whose day-to-day exposure is far lower but who may travel at short notice.
Impact
- Staff injury or death from crossfire, roadside devices and armed robbery on regional roads.
- Abduction of staff for ransom, with a real prospect of long negotiation.
- Loss of programme continuity where access is withheld, and loss of situational awareness during communications shutdowns.
Mitigation
- Region-specific movement rules rather than a single country policy: separate approval levels for Amhara, Oromia, Afar and Tigray-periphery travel.
- No night road movement; arrival deadlines set with daylight margin; overnight stops planned, not improvised.
- Communications redundancy, satellite messenger or radio where networks are unreliable, with a documented no-contact procedure.
- Written protocol for national staff at checkpoints, agreed with them, covering documentation, questioning and what to do if separated.
- Access agreements documented at the level that can enforce them, with an escalation route when local permission is withdrawn.
Assessed risks
- Staff caught in armed confrontation or crossfire during regional road movement L3 × I5
- Abduction for ransom on an Amhara or Oromia road corridor L3 × I5
- Loss of contact with a field team during a communications shutdown L4 × I3
- Access withdrawn or permissions withheld, suspending delivery L4 × I3
- Identity-based pressure or detention of national staff at a checkpoint L3 × I4
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
West AfricaSUBSTANTIAL
Guinea
Watch for
- Political protests in Conakry, sometimes met with lethal force.
- Restrictions on opposition and media.
- Crime in Conakry.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Guinea's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Conakry.
- Mining areas in Boké and Simandou.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Avoid the Axe road on protest days.
- Secure transport and accommodation.
- Hibernation plan and stocks.
Assessed risks
- Caught in protest violence L3 × I4
- Crime L3 × I3
- Sudden political disruption L3 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
East AfricaSUBSTANTIAL
Kenya
Watch for
- Al-Shabaab activity in Garissa, Wajir, Mandera and the Lamu–Boni hinterland, including roadside devices and attacks on security posts, vehicles and communications infrastructure.
- Terrorist intent against soft targets in Nairobi and Mombasa, demonstrated historically against hotels, malls and transport hubs.
- Violent urban crime, including armed carjacking and robbery, and express abduction in Nairobi.
- Protest and public-order events that can escalate rapidly, with movement disruption and force used against crowds.
- Road traffic risk, which remains the largest single cause of harm to staff nationally.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Routine, predictable movement patterns in Nairobi, and reliance on a small number of well-known venues.
- North-eastern field movement planned as domestic travel rather than as a cross-border threat environment.
- Driver standards and vehicle maintenance treated as a fleet matter rather than a security control.
- No agreed thresholds for pausing movement during protest activity, leaving the decision to individuals in the moment.
Exposure
- Nairobi offices, accommodation, hotels and conference venues, and Mombasa coastal operations.
- Field movement and camp operations in Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Dadaab and the Lamu hinterland.
- Long-distance road movement on the Nairobi–Mombasa, Nairobi–Garissa and northern corridors.
Impact
- Casualties from an attack on a soft target or a roadside device in the north-east.
- Injury or death in a road traffic collision, statistically the most likely serious harm.
- Programme disruption and reputational consequences from an incident involving staff during unrest.
Mitigation
- Two-tier movement policy: separate approval, vehicle and communications standards for north-eastern and coastal-hinterland travel.
- Road safety treated as a security control, driver assessment, defensive driving, speed limits, vehicle checks, seatbelt discipline and a night-travel ban.
- Protest thresholds written down: what triggers a movement pause, who decides, and what staff do if caught out.
- Urban crime controls: vetted transport, arrival and departure procedures, low-value carry, and a briefing that is repeated rather than issued once.
- Venue selection criteria for meetings and conferences, and short exposure at high-profile locations.
Assessed risks
- Roadside device or ambush affecting movement in Garissa, Wajir, Mandera or the Lamu hinterland L3 × I5
- Attack on a soft target used by staff in Nairobi or Mombasa L2 × I5
- Road traffic collision during staff movement L4 × I4
- Violent urban crime, including carjacking or express abduction L3 × I4
- Staff caught in protest or public-order response L3 × I3
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: High on urban crime and road safety patterns
Indian OceanSUBSTANTIAL
Madagascar
Watch for
- Political protest and military intervention in Antananarivo.
- Dahalo banditry in the south and west.
- Crime in Antananarivo.
- Cyclones and drought in the south.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Madagascar's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Antananarivo and southern regions.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Hibernation plan.
- Daylight convoy movement.
- Seasonal plans.
Assessed risks
- Political unrest L3 × I3
- Banditry on rural roads L3 × I4
- Cyclone disruption L3 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
SahelSUBSTANTIAL
Mauritania
Watch for
- Spillover risk along the Malian border, including incursions by Malian forces and armed groups.
- Low-frequency terrorism risk against foreigners.
- Banditry in remote desert areas.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Mauritania's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Nouakchott and Nouadhibou.
- Humanitarian operations at Mbera camp in the south-east.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Restrict travel near the border.
- Authority-coordinated desert travel.
- Vetted drivers and daylight-only travel.
Assessed risks
- Border incident near Mali L3 × I4
- Kidnapping in remote areas L2 × I5
- Road traffic accidents on long routes L4 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Southern AfricaSUBSTANTIAL
South Africa
Watch for
- Violent crime, including carjacking, armed robbery and express kidnapping.
- Protest, xenophobic violence and service-delivery unrest.
- Infrastructure failure, including power cuts and water outages.
- Organised extortion targeting construction and business.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside South Africa's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Johannesburg, Pretoria, Cape Town and Durban.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Secure transport, vehicle discipline and residence security.
- Monitor events and maintain hibernation stocks.
- Backup power and water.
Assessed risks
- Carjacking or armed robbery L4 × I4
- Unrest disruption L3 × I3
- Infrastructure outage L3 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
West AfricaSUBSTANTIAL
Togo
Watch for
- JNIM attacks on soldiers and civilians in Savanes.
- Political repression and protest in Lomé.
- Maritime crime off the coast.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Togo's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Lomé.
- Travel to Savanes.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Treat the far north as no-go without escort.
- Monitor events.
- Follow maritime security advice.
Assessed risks
- Attack in Savanes L4 × I5
- Protest disruption L2 × I3
- Maritime crime L2 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
North AfricaSUBSTANTIAL
Western Sahara
Watch for
- Sporadic exchanges of fire and drone strikes near the berm between Moroccan forces and the Polisario Front.
- Landmines and unexploded ordnance near the berm.
- Restrictions on journalists, researchers and activists.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Western Sahara's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Travel to Laayoune and Dakhla, largely permissive.
- Any movement near the berm or into the buffer strip.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Stay on known roads; avoid the berm.
- Brief staff on sensitivities.
- Treat the berm area as no-go.
Assessed risks
- Landmine or ordnance incident L2 × I5
- Expulsion or detention linked to political activity L3 × I3
- Exposure to cross-berm fire L2 × I5
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
North AfricaMODERATE
Algeria
Watch for
- Residual AQIM-linked activity and cross-border movement of armed groups from the Sahel into the far south.
- Smuggling of fuel, weapons and people along the southern and eastern borders.
- Periodic protest and policing pressure in Algiers and northern cities, usually contained quickly.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Algeria's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff based in Algiers, Oran and Constantine, mostly in permissive conditions.
- Travel to hydrocarbon sites and southern wilayas, which requires official coordination and escort.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Restrict southern travel to escorted, authority-coordinated movement.
- Brief staff on permits and restrictions before travel.
- Monitor local media and avoid gatherings.
Assessed risks
- Attack or kidnapping in the southern border regions L2 × I5
- Detention linked to permits, photography or sensitive topics L2 × I3
- Disruption from protests in northern cities L2 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Central AfricaMODERATE
Angola
Watch for
- Violent crime in Luanda.
- Low-level separatist activity in Cabinda.
- Protests over living costs, sometimes met with force.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Angola's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Luanda.
- Travel to Cabinda and the Lunda diamond provinces.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Secure transport and residences.
- Avoid gatherings.
- Authority-coordinated travel.
Assessed risks
- Violent crime L3 × I3
- Protest violence L2 × I3
- Cabinda incident L2 × I4
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
East AfricaMODERATE
Burundi
Watch for
- Localised armed incidents and grenade attacks reported periodically, mainly linked to internal political dynamics.
- Regional tension involving Rwanda and eastern DRC, with border areas and troop movements as watch items.
- Political sensitivity: surveillance, questioning and administrative pressure on organisations and their national staff.
- Routine crime, including robbery in Bujumbura, and armed criminality in some rural areas.
- Poor road conditions, limited medical capability outside Bujumbura, and periodic fuel shortages.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- National staff carrying the political exposure of the organisation's work with no protocol for questioning or detention.
- Movement plans that depend on fuel availability and roads that degrade seasonally.
- Reliance on Bujumbura medical capability with no documented referral for serious cases.
- Assessments and beneficiary data held in ways that could be read as politically significant.
Exposure
- Bujumbura offices, accommodation and staff movement.
- Field operations in provinces near the DRC and Rwandan borders.
- National staff and local partners, whose exposure continues after international staff leave.
Impact
- Injury from grenade or armed incident, and casualties from road traffic collision on poor roads.
- Detention or questioning of national staff, with severe personal and family consequences.
- Loss of operating permission, and interruption of delivery through fuel or access failure.
Mitigation
- Written protocol for questioning and detention agreed with national staff, with legal support and family liaison named in advance.
- Movement planning around fuel and road condition, with journey approval and a night-travel ban.
- Medical referral pathway documented in advance, including regional escalation for serious cases.
- Data minimisation and secure handling for assessments and beneficiary information.
- Compliance and registration kept current, with a documented, non-political public position on the work.
Assessed risks
- Grenade or armed incident affecting staff or premises L2 × I4
- Questioning or detention of national staff over the organisation's work L3 × I4
- Road traffic collision or breakdown on poor roads or during fuel shortage L4 × I3
- Serious medical emergency without adequate local care L3 × I4
- Loss of operating permission or administrative restriction L3 × I3
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Low to moderate
Indian OceanMODERATE
Comoros
Watch for
- Political protest, especially around elections.
- Cyclone hazards.
- Limited medical facilities.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Comoros's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Monitor events.
- Seasonal plans.
Assessed risks
- Political unrest L2 × I3
- Cyclone L2 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Central AfricaMODERATE
Congo
Watch for
- Crime in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire.
- Residual armed presence in Pool.
- Political tension around elections.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Congo's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Basic briefings.
- Assess travel to Pool.
Assessed risks
- Crime L3 × I2
- Pool incident L2 × I4
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
West AfricaMODERATE
Côte d'Ivoire
Watch for
- Sporadic jihadist incidents near the northern borders.
- Crime in Abidjan, including armed robbery.
- Political tension around elections.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Côte d'Ivoire's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Abidjan and Yamoussoukro.
- Travel to northern border districts.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Restrict travel near the borders.
- Vetted transport and residence security.
- Hibernation plan around elections.
Assessed risks
- Northern border incident L2 × I5
- Crime in Abidjan L3 × I3
- Election unrest L3 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Horn of AfricaMODERATE
Djibouti
Watch for
- Regional spillover: proximity to Somalia, Ethiopia and Yemen, and a standing terrorist threat to soft targets used by foreigners.
- Maritime threat in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden approaches, including attacks on shipping and the consequences for port and crew operations.
- Petty and opportunistic crime in Djibouti City, concentrated around markets and nightlife areas.
- Extreme heat and heat-related illness, which causes more staff casualties here than violence does.
- Irregular migration routes and associated smuggling activity along the coast.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Predictable use of a small number of hotels, restaurants and offices frequented by internationals.
- Work and movement schedules that ignore the heat cycle, particularly for drivers, guards and field staff.
- Assumption that a stable base needs no security plan, leaving no incident procedure when something does happen.
- Sea and port operations planned without reference to maritime security advisories.
Exposure
- Djibouti City offices, accommodation and venues used by international staff.
- Port, corridor and warehouse operations, and the Djibouti–Addis Ababa road and rail corridor.
- Coastal and maritime activity in the Bab al-Mandab approaches.
Impact
- Casualties from an attack on a venue frequented by foreigners, however low the likelihood.
- Heat illness and preventable deaths among outdoor and vehicle-based staff.
- Corridor and port disruption cascading into supply failure for programmes in Ethiopia and the wider region.
Mitigation
- Vary venues and timings; assess the small number of routinely used hotels and offices for stand-off and access control.
- Heat management as a security control: work-rest cycles, hydration, scheduling around the hottest hours, and heat-illness recognition training.
- A written incident and evacuation procedure even in a stable base, with contact tree and rehearsed first hour.
- Maritime and port operations planned against current maritime security advisories, with contingency routing for the corridor.
- Journey management on the Ethiopia corridor, treating it as a regional route rather than a domestic one.
Assessed risks
- Attack on a hotel, restaurant or venue frequented by internationals L2 × I5
- Heat-related illness or death among drivers, guards or field staff L4 × I3
- Corridor or port disruption interrupting regional supply L3 × I3
- Opportunistic crime against staff in Djibouti City L3 × I2
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
North AfricaMODERATE
Egypt
Watch for
- Islamic State Sinai Province capability much reduced but not eliminated in North Sinai.
- Low-probability, high-impact terrorism against security forces, churches or tourist sites.
- Spillover pressures from the Sudan war along the southern border and Gaza on the north-east.
- Red Sea and Suez Canal disruption linked to Houthi attacks on shipping.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Egypt's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Cairo and Alexandria, and travellers to tourist and Red Sea coastal sites.
- Humanitarian operations at the Aswan and Rafah border areas.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Vary routines and limit time at high-profile sites.
- Clear research activity with counterparts and brief staff on the law.
- Treat North Sinai as no-go without official authorisation.
Assessed risks
- Terrorist attack in a crowded or symbolic location L2 × I5
- Detention linked to journalism, research or social media L3 × I3
- Movement into restricted Sinai zones L2 × I4
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Central AfricaMODERATE
Equatorial Guinea
Watch for
- Arbitrary detention and harassment at checkpoints.
- Restrictions on movement and photography.
- Maritime crime in the Gulf of Guinea.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Equatorial Guinea's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Malabo and Bata.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Carry documents and brief staff.
- Follow maritime advisories.
Assessed risks
- Detention at checkpoints L3 × I3
- Maritime crime L2 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Horn of AfricaMODERATE
Eritrea
Watch for
- State control of movement, communications and information, with travel permits required for movement outside Asmara.
- Surveillance and the risk of detention over perceived political activity, reporting or contact with certain individuals.
- Unresolved border tension with Ethiopia, and proximity to the Sudan conflict on the western border.
- Low but non-zero risk of landmines and explosive remnants in former border conflict areas.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Assessments and reporting written on the assumption of private communications, in a context where that assumption is unsafe.
- Staff unbriefed on what constitutes a legal risk locally, including photography, mapping and unauthorised movement.
- Programme plans that depend on permissions with no committed timeline.
- Little independent public reporting to corroborate any assessment.
Exposure
- Asmara-based staff and visitors, and permitted movement to regional towns.
- Any movement near the Ethiopian or Sudanese borders.
- Digital exposure: devices, files and communications carried into and out of the country.
Impact
- Detention, questioning or expulsion of staff, and loss of permission to operate.
- Harm to local contacts and staff whose association with the organisation is documented.
- Injury from explosive remnants in former border-conflict areas.
Mitigation
- Written legal and behavioural briefing for all staff and visitors: photography, mapping, movement permits, and what not to discuss or carry.
- Information-handling discipline: minimum data on devices, no lists of local contacts held in-country, and an assumption of non-private communications.
- Movement only with valid permits, planned around processing time rather than hoping for it.
- Explosive-ordnance awareness and adherence to marked routes near former conflict areas.
- A documented plan for what happens if a staff member is detained, including consular routes and family liaison.
Assessed risks
- Detention or questioning of staff over movement, photography or perceived political activity L3 × I4
- Harm to local staff or contacts through documented association L2 × I5
- Movement or programme blocked by withheld permissions L4 × I2
- Injury from explosive remnants of war near former border-conflict areas L2 × I5
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Low to moderate
Southern AfricaMODERATE
Eswatini
Watch for
- Political protest and heavy-handed policing.
- Crime in Mbabane and Manzini.
- High HIV prevalence affecting workforce planning.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Eswatini's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Mbabane and Manzini.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Monitor events.
- Basic briefings.
Assessed risks
- Political unrest L2 × I3
- Crime L3 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Central AfricaMODERATE
Gabon
Watch for
- Political tension during the transition.
- Crime in Libreville.
- Maritime crime offshore.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Gabon's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Libreville and Port-Gentil.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Monitor events.
- Basic briefings.
Assessed risks
- Political disruption L2 × I3
- Crime L2 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
West AfricaMODERATE
Ghana
Watch for
- Chieftaincy and communal violence, notably in Bawku.
- Risk of Sahel jihadist spillover in the north.
- Urban crime and fraud in Accra and Kumasi.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Ghana's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Accra and Kumasi.
- Travel to the Upper East and Northern regions.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Follow local curfews and avoid the area during flare-ups.
- Vetted suppliers and personal security briefings.
- Monitor the border regions.
Assessed risks
- Communal violence in Bawku L3 × I4
- Crime and fraud L3 × I2
- Northern spillover incident L2 × I5
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
West AfricaMODERATE
Guinea-Bissau
Watch for
- Political instability and coup attempts.
- Drug-trafficking networks.
- Petty crime in Bissau.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Guinea-Bissau's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Hibernation plan.
- Basic briefings.
Assessed risks
- Political crisis or coup L3 × I3
- Petty crime L2 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Southern AfricaMODERATE
Lesotho
Watch for
- Violent crime in Maseru.
- Gang violence linked to music and mining.
- Political instability within coalitions.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Lesotho's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Residence security and night-movement limits.
- Monitor events.
Assessed risks
- Violent crime L3 × I3
- Political disruption L2 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
West AfricaMODERATE
Liberia
Watch for
- Armed and street crime in Monrovia.
- Protests linked to economic grievances.
- Weak road infrastructure.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Liberia's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Monrovia and county capitals.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Residence security and night-movement limits.
- Vetted drivers and vehicles.
- Monitor local media.
Assessed risks
- Crime in Monrovia L3 × I3
- Road accidents L4 × I3
- Protest disruption L2 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Southern AfricaMODERATE
Malawi
Watch for
- Cyclones and floods (Freddy, 2023).
- Fuel and foreign-exchange shortages.
- Crime in Lilongwe and Blantyre.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Malawi's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Lilongwe, Blantyre and southern districts.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Seasonal contingency plans.
- Basic briefings.
- Fuel reserves.
Assessed risks
- Flood or cyclone disruption L3 × I3
- Crime L3 × I2
- Fuel shortage disruption L3 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
North AfricaMODERATE
Morocco
Watch for
- Low-frequency terrorism risk, with regular disruption of cells by security services.
- Street crime and scams in large cities and tourist areas.
- Earthquake and flood hazards, as shown by the 2023 Al Haouz earthquake.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Morocco's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Rabat, Casablanca, Marrakech and Tangier.
- Travel to the Atlas and southern regions.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Low-profile conduct and vetted transport.
- Awareness of crowded locations and emergency plans.
- Earthquake preparedness and staff tracking.
Assessed risks
- Opportunistic crime against foreigners L3 × I2
- Terrorist attack on tourist sites L1 × I5
- Natural hazard disrupting operations L2 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
West AfricaMODERATE
Senegal
Watch for
- Political protest in Dakar.
- Residual landmines and low-level armed presence in Casamance.
- Risk of Sahel spillover along the eastern border with Mali.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Senegal's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Dakar.
- Travel to Casamance and the eastern border.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Monitor political events.
- Stay on main roads.
- Monitor the Mali border.
Assessed risks
- Protest disruption L2 × I3
- Landmine incident in Casamance L1 × I5
- Eastern border incident L2 × I4
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
West AfricaMODERATE
Sierra Leone
Watch for
- Political tension and protest around elections.
- Urban crime in Freetown.
- Weak infrastructure and health-system fragility.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Sierra Leone's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Freetown and district towns.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Monitor events and maintain a hibernation plan.
- Personal security briefings.
Assessed risks
- Political unrest L2 × I3
- Crime L3 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
North AfricaMODERATE
Tunisia
Watch for
- Small jihadist cells in the Chaambi and western border mountains.
- Low-probability attacks on tourist or security targets, as in 2015.
- Protest and unrest linked to economic hardship and migration tensions in Sfax.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Tunisia's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Tunis and coastal cities.
- Travel to the Algerian and Libyan border zones.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Limit time at symbolic sites.
- Monitor local tensions and adjust movement.
- Brief staff on decree-law restrictions.
Assessed risks
- Attack on a tourist or security target L2 × I5
- Unrest around migration in Sfax L3 × I3
- Detention for political commentary L2 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
East AfricaMODERATE
Uganda
Watch for
- ADF-linked attacks and cross-border armed activity affecting western districts near the DRC border, including attacks on villages and roads.
- Occasional attacks and attempted attacks in urban centres, with intent against soft targets.
- Politically driven public-order events, particularly around election cycles, with the risk of force used against crowds and of restrictions on movement and communications.
- Cattle-raiding and armed criminality in parts of Karamoja.
- Urban crime in Kampala, including robbery targeting foreigners, and significant road traffic risk on inter-city routes.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Field movement in western districts planned without reference to cross-border armed activity.
- Assumption that a permissive country needs no incident procedure or movement thresholds.
- Visible association with politically sensitive activity or partners without an assessment of the consequences for staff.
- Motorcycle-taxi use and night road movement treated as normal practice.
Exposure
- Field operations and refugee-hosting districts in the west and south-west, and in Karamoja.
- Kampala offices, accommodation and movement, and inter-city road travel.
- Public gatherings, and any activity coinciding with electoral events.
Impact
- Casualties from armed attack or crossfire in western border districts.
- Injury or death from road traffic collision, including motorcycle-taxi use.
- Detention, deregistration or operational restriction following political friction.
Mitigation
- District-level movement rules for the western border and Karamoja, with approval, comms and timing standards.
- Road safety controls including a prohibition on motorcycle-taxi use for work movement and a night-travel ban.
- Election and public-order planning: monitoring, movement-pause thresholds, remote-working capability and stock buffer.
- Registration, reporting and compliance kept current, with legal advice retained before politically sensitive activity.
- Incident procedure and contact tree in place and rehearsed, in Kampala as much as in the field.
Assessed risks
- Armed attack or crossfire affecting staff in western border districts L3 × I4
- Road traffic collision, including motorcycle-taxi use L4 × I4
- Staff caught in public-order events around an election cycle L3 × I3
- Administrative or legal restriction on operations L3 × I3
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate to high
Southern AfricaMODERATE
Zimbabwe
Watch for
- Arbitrary arrest linked to political activity or journalism.
- Crime in Harare and Bulawayo.
- Currency and supply shortages.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Zimbabwe's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Harare and Bulawayo.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Brief staff and keep a neutral profile.
- Basic briefings.
- Cash and fuel contingencies.
Assessed risks
- Detention linked to political activity L2 × I3
- Crime L3 × I2
- Supply shortages L3 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Southern AfricaLOW
Botswana
Watch for
- Opportunistic crime in Gaborone and Francistown.
- Road accidents, including with wildlife.
- Economic pressure from the diamond downturn.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Botswana's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Gaborone and travellers to safari areas.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Basic briefings.
- Daylight driving and vetted vehicles.
Assessed risks
- Crime L2 × I2
- Road accidents L3 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High
West AfricaLOW
Cabo Verde
Watch for
- Petty and street crime in Praia and Mindelo.
- Drug-trafficking transit linked to Atlantic routes.
- Maritime and weather hazards.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Cabo Verde's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff and visitors in Praia, Mindelo and Sal.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Basic personal security briefings.
- Flexible travel planning.
Assessed risks
- Street crime L3 × I2
- Maritime or weather disruption L2 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High
West AfricaLOW
Gambia
Watch for
- Petty crime in tourist areas.
- Low-level political tension.
- Irregular migration pressures.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Gambia's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff and visitors in Banjul and the coastal strip.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Basic personal security briefings.
- Monitor local news.
Assessed risks
- Petty crime L3 × I2
- Political protest L2 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High
Indian OceanLOW
Mauritius
Watch for
- Petty crime.
- Cyclones.
- Drug-related crime.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Mauritius's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff and visitors in Port Louis and coastal areas.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Basic briefings.
- Seasonal plans.
Assessed risks
- Petty crime L2 × I2
- Cyclone L2 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High
Southern AfricaLOW
Namibia
Watch for
- Crime in Windhoek.
- Road accidents on long routes.
- Drought affecting rural livelihoods.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Namibia's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Windhoek and travellers in remote areas.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Basic briefings.
- Daylight driving.
Assessed risks
- Crime L2 × I2
- Road accidents L3 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High
East AfricaLOW
Rwanda
Watch for
- Regional tension and armed activity across the border in eastern DRC, with occasional cross-border incidents and periodic border closures in the north-west.
- Political and information sensitivity: restrictions and legal exposure around research, reporting and public comment.
- Road traffic risk on hill roads, particularly in rain and at night.
- Low but present opportunistic crime in Kigali.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Research, interviews and reporting conducted without an assessment of the legal and personal exposure for participants and national staff.
- Assumption that low crime means no incident planning, leaving no procedure for a cross-border escalation.
- Movement to the north-west planned without reference to border status.
- Data on devices and in reports that could identify individuals.
Exposure
- Kigali offices, accommodation and visitor movement.
- North-western districts near the DRC border, including movement to Gisenyi and Rubavu.
- Interviews, assessments and data collection involving individuals who may be identifiable.
Impact
- Harm to participants, contacts or national staff arising from identifiable data or reporting.
- Injury or death from road traffic collision.
- Sudden loss of access or movement disruption in the north-west during cross-border escalation.
Mitigation
- Information and data-protection discipline: minimum data collected, anonymisation by default, informed consent, no identifiable contact lists on devices.
- Legal review before publishing or conducting politically sensitive research, and a briefing on local law for all staff and visitors.
- Road safety controls: driver standards, night-travel restriction, wet-weather rules on hill roads, vehicle checks.
- North-west movement rules linked to border status, with contingency plans and suspension thresholds.
- Incident procedure and contact tree in place, however low the incident rate.
Assessed risks
- Harm to participants, contacts or staff through identifiable data or reporting L2 × I5
- Road traffic collision on hill roads or in wet conditions L3 × I4
- Cross-border escalation disrupting north-western operations L3 × I3
- Legal or administrative exposure from research or public comment L2 × I4
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate
Central AfricaLOW
Sao Tome and Principe
Watch for
- Petty crime.
- Maritime crime in surrounding waters.
- Occasional political tension.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Sao Tome and Principe's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff and visitors in São Tomé.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Basic briefings.
- Maritime advisories.
Assessed risks
- Petty crime L2 × I2
- Maritime incident L2 × I3
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High
Indian OceanLOW
Seychelles
Watch for
- Petty crime.
- Regional piracy risk at sea.
- Weather hazards.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Seychelles's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff and visitors on Mahé and Praslin; maritime operations.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Basic briefings.
- Follow UKMTO and EU NAVFOR guidance.
Assessed risks
- Petty crime L2 × I2
- Piracy at sea L2 × I4
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High
East AfricaLOW
Tanzania
Watch for
- Opportunistic and occasionally violent crime in Dar es Salaam, Arusha and Zanzibar, including robbery targeting foreigners.
- Localised threat in Mtwara and the Ruvuma border area linked to the insurgency in northern Mozambique.
- Significant road traffic risk on inter-city highways, and maritime safety risk on ferry routes.
- Regulatory and administrative risk: registration, permits, data and reporting requirements enforced unevenly.
- Public-order events around political milestones, generally localised.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Low perceived threat leading to no security plan, no incident procedure and no briefing.
- Night road movement and long inter-city driving accepted as normal.
- Ferry and boat movement without a check on operator standards or lifejacket availability.
- Compliance treated as an administrative task rather than an operational risk.
Exposure
- Dar es Salaam, Arusha and Zanzibar offices, accommodation and visitor movement.
- Inter-city road movement and field operations, including south-eastern regions.
- Ferry and boat movement, including Zanzibar and lake routes.
Impact
- Injury or death from road traffic collision or a marine incident.
- Loss of assets and staff welfare consequences from violent crime.
- Suspension of operations or loss of registration following a compliance failure.
Mitigation
- Road safety programme: driver standards, journey approval for long routes, speed policy, night-travel ban, vehicle checks.
- Marine movement standards: operator selection, lifejackets, manifest, and a rule against overloaded vessels.
- Crime controls proportionate to the threat: area briefing, transport arrangements, cash-handling rules, residence standards.
- Compliance calendar with named owners for registration, permits, tax and reporting deadlines.
- Separate movement standard for Mtwara and Ruvuma border districts, with monitoring of cross-border incident reporting.
Assessed risks
- Road traffic collision on an inter-city route L4 × I4
- Violent or opportunistic crime against staff or visitors L3 × I3
- Marine incident on a ferry or boat movement L2 × I5
- Security incident in south-eastern border districts L2 × I4
- Regulatory or registration failure interrupting operations L3 × I3
Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate to high on crime and road safety
Southern AfricaLOW
Zambia
Watch for
- Crime in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.
- Load-shedding from low hydropower output.
- Political tension around elections.
Full indicator set
Vulnerability
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Zambia's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Staff in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.
Impact
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Basic briefings.
- Backup power.
Assessed risks
- Crime L2 × I2
- Power-cut disruption L4 × I2
Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High