Security management · Early warning

Early warning is a set of indicators, watched deliberately

Warning does not come from reading more news. It comes from choosing a small number of indicators that would genuinely change a decision, defining what each one means, and reviewing them on a fixed rhythm.

These are analytical indicators, not predictions. Status describes the weight of current public reporting and is reviewed when source conditions or the operating environment change.

All 54 African states

Africa indicator board

The indicators to watch in every country, drawn from each published country assessment. Choose a region or country to narrow the board.

Horn of AfricaCRITICAL

Sudan

Watch for

  • Sustained hostilities between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, including indirect fire and air attack affecting residential districts.
  • Armed looting of humanitarian premises, vehicles, warehouses and convoys, reported repeatedly by agencies.
  • Detention, harassment and interrogation of aid staff at checkpoints, and pressure on national staff over perceived affiliation.
  • Explosive remnants of war in areas where fighting has passed, including unexploded ordnance in urban plots and along roads.
  • Communications and banking collapse in parts of the country, which is a threat to duty of care as much as an inconvenience.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Any fixed, identifiable premises holding fuel, vehicles or commodities is a looting target regardless of flag or signage.
  • Front lines move; movement plans built on last week's control map are wrong.
  • Cross-line movement requires permission from more than one party, and each permission can be withdrawn.
  • National staff and their families remain in place when international staff relocate, carrying the residual exposure.

Exposure

  • Khartoum State, Darfur states and Kordofan, where ground fighting and air attack have been concentrated.
  • Port Sudan and eastern Sudan as the main entry, logistics and relocation route.
  • Cross-line and cross-border convoy movement, including from Chad and South Sudan.

Impact

  • Death and serious injury of staff, including from indirect fire with no attack directed at the organisation at all.
  • Total loss of assets, stock and premises through looting, and loss of the capacity to deliver at all in an area.
  • Prolonged detention of staff, and severe welfare consequences for national staff and their dependants.

Mitigation

  • Programme criticality review: agree in writing which activities justify presence, and stop the rest.
  • Minimum footprint, no fuel or vehicle stockpiles at staffed premises; disperse stock; keep cash holdings low and documented.
  • Cross-line movement only with permissions from every relevant party, confirmed the same day, with a no-go default.
  • National staff support built in from the start: relocation options, salary continuity, family contact arrangements, and a decision about what is owed if international staff withdraw.
  • Explosive-ordnance awareness briefing for all staff, route clearance information from mine-action actors, and a rule against entering unswept damaged buildings.
  • Relocation and hibernation plans written, resourced and rehearsed, with trigger indicators agreed before they are needed.

Assessed risks

  • Staff killed or injured by indirect fire or air attack in a contested urban area L4 × I5
  • Armed looting of premises, vehicles or warehoused stock L5 × I4
  • Detention or interrogation of staff at a checkpoint or cross-line crossing L4 × I4
  • Death or injury from explosive remnants of war in an area fighting has passed through L3 × I5
  • National staff and dependants left exposed after international relocation L4 × I4

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

SahelSEVERE

Burkina Faso

Watch for

  • JNIM and Islamic State Sahel attacks on military posts, convoys and civilians, including mass-casualty events.
  • Blockades of towns in the north and east cutting road access.
  • Kidnapping of foreigners and aid workers.
  • Restrictions on media, civil society and foreign organisations by the authorities.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Burkina Faso's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso.
  • Road movement outside the capital, and humanitarian air access to besieged towns.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Use humanitarian air service where possible; no unassessed road travel.
  • Minimise expatriate footprint outside the capital.
  • Maintain clear registration and neutral communications.

Assessed risks

  • Mass-casualty attack or ambush on road movement L5 × I5
  • Kidnapping of foreign staff L4 × I5
  • Expulsion or suspension by authorities L3 × I4

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Central AfricaSEVERE

Cameroon

Watch for

  • Separatist and military violence in the North-West and South-West, including kidnappings and lockdowns.
  • Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks in the Far North.
  • Armed groups and kidnapping along the border with the Central African Republic.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Cameroon's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Yaoundé and Douala.
  • Humanitarian operations in Bamenda, Buea and Maroua.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Low-profile, assessed movement and observance of lockdowns.
  • Escorted movement and restricted footprint.
  • Basic briefings.

Assessed risks

  • Kidnapping in the Anglophone regions L4 × I5
  • Attack in the Far North L4 × I5
  • Crime in Douala L3 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Central AfricaSEVERE

Central African Republic

Watch for

  • Armed-group violence and banditry outside Bangui.
  • Attacks on humanitarian convoys and premises, among the highest rates globally.
  • Explosive devices on roads in the north-west.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Central African Republic's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Bangui and humanitarian hubs (Bambari, Bria, Bossangoa).
  • Road movement between hubs.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Convoy discipline and humanitarian air service.
  • Route assessment and UN advisories.
  • Hibernation stocks and safe rooms.

Assessed risks

  • Attack or robbery of convoys L4 × I4
  • Explosive device on roads L3 × I5
  • Clashes near humanitarian bases L3 × I4

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

SahelSEVERE

Chad

Watch for

  • Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks in the Lake Chad area.
  • Rebel groups operating from the north and from Libya.
  • Spillover from Sudan's war in the east, including armed movement and refugee pressure.
  • Political tension and protest in N'Djamena.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Chad's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in N'Djamena and humanitarian hubs in the east (Abéché, Adré).
  • Road movement in the east and Lake region.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Escorted or no movement in the Lake region.
  • Daylight movement in convoy with check-ins.
  • Hibernation plan and stocks.

Assessed risks

  • Attack in the Lake Chad region L4 × I5
  • Armed banditry on eastern roads L4 × I4
  • Unrest in N'Djamena L3 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Central AfricaSEVERE

DR Congo

Watch for

  • M23 control of Goma and Bukavu since early 2025, with fighting along front lines.
  • ADF massacres of civilians in Beni, Lubero and Ituri.
  • CODECO and other militia violence in Ituri.
  • Unrest and crime in Kinshasa, including attacks on embassies in January 2025.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside DR Congo's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Kinshasa, Goma, Bukavu and Bunia.
  • Road movement in North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Relocation triggers and hibernation stocks.
  • Assessed movement, escorts and short check-ins.
  • Monitor events and avoid diplomatic districts during protests.

Assessed risks

  • Caught in front-line fighting in the Kivus L4 × I5
  • Ambush or kidnapping on roads in the east L4 × I5
  • Unrest in Kinshasa L3 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

North AfricaSEVERE

Libya

Watch for

  • Armed-group clashes in and around Tripoli over territory, revenue and appointments.
  • Kidnapping for ransom and arbitrary detention by armed groups.
  • Residual Islamic State presence in the south and centre.
  • Migrant smuggling and trafficking networks along the coast and southern routes.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Libya's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Tripoli, Benghazi and Misrata, often in compounds.
  • Road and air movement between east and west, and travel to the south.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Maintain hibernation stocks and a tested relocation plan.
  • Low-profile movement with trusted local fixers and short check-ins.
  • Hold cash, fuel and power contingencies.

Assessed risks

  • Caught in armed clashes in Tripoli L4 × I4
  • Kidnapping or arbitrary detention L3 × I5
  • Collapse of power, fuel or banking services L3 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

SahelSEVERE

Mali

Watch for

  • JNIM attacks, including in Bamako (September 2024 attack) and fuel blockades of the capital.
  • Islamic State Sahel violence in Ménaka and Gao.
  • Kidnapping of foreigners.
  • Abuses linked to military operations, affecting community acceptance.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Mali's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Bamako.
  • Road movement on main supply routes, and air access to northern towns.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Fuel, cash and hibernation stocks; relocation triggers.
  • Minimal expatriate movement outside Bamako.
  • Air movement where possible.

Assessed risks

  • Attack or blockade affecting Bamako L4 × I5
  • Kidnapping L4 × I5
  • Ambush on road movement L5 × I5

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Southern AfricaSEVERE

Mozambique

Watch for

  • Islamic State Mozambique attacks in Cabo Delgado and Niassa.
  • Post-election protest and lethal policing in Maputo and other cities.
  • Kidnap for ransom targeting business people in Maputo.
  • Cyclone and flood hazards.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Mozambique's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Maputo, Pemba and Nampula.
  • Operations in Cabo Delgado, including LNG areas.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Restrict movement to assessed areas and maintain relocation plans.
  • Hibernation plan.
  • Low profile and varied routines.

Assessed risks

  • Insurgent attack in Cabo Delgado L4 × I5
  • Unrest in Maputo L3 × I3
  • Kidnap for ransom L3 × I4

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

SahelSEVERE

Niger

Watch for

  • Islamic State Sahel and JNIM attacks in Tillabéri and Tahoua.
  • Boko Haram and ISWAP in Diffa.
  • Kidnapping of foreigners.
  • Restrictions and suspensions affecting foreign organisations.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Niger's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Niamey.
  • Road movement in Tillabéri, Tahoua and Diffa.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Escorted or air movement only.
  • Minimise expatriate footprint.
  • Maintain registration and relationships.

Assessed risks

  • Attack on road movement in the west L5 × I5
  • Kidnapping L4 × I5
  • Suspension by authorities L3 × I4

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

West AfricaSEVERE

Nigeria

Watch for

  • Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa.
  • Armed bandits carrying out mass kidnappings in Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna and Niger states.
  • IPOB-linked enforcement of sit-at-home orders and attacks in the south-east.
  • Kidnap for ransom on highways nationwide, and maritime crime in the Niger Delta.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Nigeria's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt.
  • Humanitarian operations in Maiduguri and the north-east.
  • Road movement between cities.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Air travel between cities; escorted road movement.
  • Humanitarian air service and garrison-town footprint.
  • Residence security and vetted transport.

Assessed risks

  • Kidnap for ransom on road movement L4 × I5
  • Attack in the north-east L4 × I5
  • Crime in Lagos and Port Harcourt L3 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Horn of AfricaSEVERE

Somalia

Watch for

  • Al-Shabaab retains intent and demonstrated capability against government, security and hospitality targets in Mogadishu and regional capitals, including vehicle-borne devices and coordinated assault teams.
  • Informal checkpoints and taxation on arterial routes outside government-held towns, reported consistently by transporters and traders.
  • Clan and political competition, including federal member state disputes, capable of producing armed confrontation with little notice.
  • Criminality in urban centres, armed robbery, vehicle theft, opportunistic abduction, that is separate from the conflict but affects staff more often.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Predictable routines: fixed arrival and departure times, single approach roads, and repeated use of the same hotels and meeting venues.
  • Premises with limited stand-off from a public road, and guarding contracted without a written security standard.
  • Movement approved on the basis of habit rather than a route assessment, with no written abort criteria held by the vehicle commander.
  • Reliance on a single communications channel, and check-in schedules that would take hours to reveal a missing vehicle.

Exposure

  • National and international staff in Mogadishu, Baidoa, Kismayo, Garowe and Hargeisa, largely during working hours with visitor traffic on set days.
  • Road movement on the Mogadishu–Afgooye, Mogadishu–Jowhar and Baidoa corridors, and airport transfers through areas used by officials.
  • Distribution and monitoring visits in rural districts where control changes between towns.

Impact

  • Fatalities and serious injury from blast and fragmentation, with prolonged staff-care and family-liaison obligations.
  • Loss of a vehicle or team to abduction, with months of crisis management and no guarantee of outcome.
  • Programme suspension, contractual failure with donors, and loss of the community acceptance that makes access possible.

Mitigation

  • Site selection with measurable stand-off, controlled single entry with search, blast film, a designated safe room and a drill rhythm that is actually run.
  • Journey management per movement: route assessment, varied timing and routing, day-of-travel road check, named vehicle commander and written abort criteria.
  • Checkpoint mapping with transporters, a documented no-payment position, scripted responses and one named negotiation point of contact.
  • Crisis management plan rehearsed with named roles, tested contact tree, and a decision log kept from the first hour.
  • Acceptance work: transparent selection criteria, community feedback channels, and a public position on independence that partners can repeat.

Assessed risks

  • Staff caught in the effects of an explosive attack on a nearby government, security or hotel target L4 × I5
  • Ambush or roadside device against vehicle movement on an inter-city corridor L3 × I5
  • Detention, extortion or long delay at an informal checkpoint L4 × I3
  • Abduction of staff for ransom or leverage L2 × I5

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate to high on the pattern of urban attacks and route insecurity

East AfricaSEVERE

South Sudan

Watch for

  • Subnational armed conflict and communal violence, including cattle-related raiding and revenge cycles in Jonglei, Warrap, Unity and Upper Nile.
  • Ambush, armed robbery and harassment of aid convoys and river movement, documented year after year in aid-security reporting.
  • Sexual violence against staff and beneficiaries, which must be assessed and controlled explicitly rather than folded into general crime.
  • Interference by armed actors and local authorities in staffing, procurement and beneficiary selection.
  • Political friction around transition and election timelines that can escalate quickly in specific states.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Field bases with limited perimeter control, and guarding arrangements that would not withstand an armed group.
  • Movement dependent on a small number of roads that are impassable in the wet season, forcing air or river movement with different risks.
  • Medical capability far from field bases, making an ordinary injury a serious event.
  • Insufficient female staff representation in security decision-making, and reporting routes that discourage disclosure.

Exposure

  • Field bases and mobile teams in Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile, Warrap and the Equatorias.
  • Road movement in the dry season, river movement on the Nile corridor, and air movement to airstrips with no security at the receiving end.
  • Distribution sites where large crowds gather and armed actors are present nearby.

Impact

  • Death and serious injury of staff from ambush, crossfire and armed robbery.
  • Sexual violence, with severe and lasting harm and an organisational duty that extends for years.
  • Suspension of delivery in the areas with the greatest need, and asset loss that removes capacity for the season.

Mitigation

  • Journey management with seasonal planning: pre-positioned stock before the rains, and no reliance on a single route or mode.
  • Site standards written into guarding contracts, with perimeter, lighting, access control and a rehearsed lock-down.
  • Explicit sexual-violence risk assessment and controls: accommodation arrangements, movement pairing, trained focal points, confidential reporting and survivor-centred support.
  • Medical capability mapped before deployment: first-aid trained staff on every movement, documented referral, and a named provider for escalation.
  • Community acceptance work at distribution sites, crowd-management planning, and a documented position on interference in selection and recruitment.

Assessed risks

  • Ambush or armed robbery against a road or river movement L4 × I4
  • Staff caught in communal or subnational armed violence near a field base L4 × I4
  • Sexual violence against a staff member L3 × I5
  • Serious medical emergency at a location distant from adequate care L3 × I5
  • Armed or administrative interference in selection, procurement or recruitment L4 × I3

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate to high

West AfricaSUBSTANTIAL

Benin

Watch for

  • JNIM attacks on soldiers and rangers in the W and Pendjari park areas.
  • Kidnapping risk in the far north.
  • Political tension around elections.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Benin's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Cotonou and Porto-Novo.
  • Travel to Atacora and Alibori.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Treat border park areas as no-go.
  • Authority-coordinated travel only.
  • Monitor the electoral calendar.

Assessed risks

  • Attack in the northern parks L4 × I5
  • Kidnapping in the north L3 × I5
  • Election-related unrest L2 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Horn of AfricaSUBSTANTIAL

Ethiopia

Watch for

  • Armed confrontation between federal forces and organised armed groups in parts of Amhara and Oromia, including attacks on road users and abduction for ransom.
  • Unresolved tension in and around Tigray and disputed boundary areas, with the risk of renewed escalation.
  • Inter-communal violence and displacement in Oromia–Somali and Afar periphery areas.
  • Administrative threats to operations: movement permissions withheld, communication shutdowns, and pressure on staff of particular ethnic backgrounds.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Programmes designed around road movement between regional capitals, where control is not continuous.
  • Reliance on mobile networks and internet for check-ins, in a context where shutdowns are used as a control measure.
  • National staff exposed to identity-based pressure at checkpoints, with no written protocol for what they may and may not carry.
  • Access negotiated informally with local authorities rather than through a documented, escalatable arrangement.

Exposure

  • Field offices and monitoring visits in Amhara, Oromia, Afar and the Tigray periphery.
  • Long-distance road movement, including night arrival at regional towns where curfews change with little notice.
  • Addis-based staff and visitors, whose day-to-day exposure is far lower but who may travel at short notice.

Impact

  • Staff injury or death from crossfire, roadside devices and armed robbery on regional roads.
  • Abduction of staff for ransom, with a real prospect of long negotiation.
  • Loss of programme continuity where access is withheld, and loss of situational awareness during communications shutdowns.

Mitigation

  • Region-specific movement rules rather than a single country policy: separate approval levels for Amhara, Oromia, Afar and Tigray-periphery travel.
  • No night road movement; arrival deadlines set with daylight margin; overnight stops planned, not improvised.
  • Communications redundancy, satellite messenger or radio where networks are unreliable, with a documented no-contact procedure.
  • Written protocol for national staff at checkpoints, agreed with them, covering documentation, questioning and what to do if separated.
  • Access agreements documented at the level that can enforce them, with an escalation route when local permission is withdrawn.

Assessed risks

  • Staff caught in armed confrontation or crossfire during regional road movement L3 × I5
  • Abduction for ransom on an Amhara or Oromia road corridor L3 × I5
  • Loss of contact with a field team during a communications shutdown L4 × I3
  • Access withdrawn or permissions withheld, suspending delivery L4 × I3
  • Identity-based pressure or detention of national staff at a checkpoint L3 × I4

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

West AfricaSUBSTANTIAL

Guinea

Watch for

  • Political protests in Conakry, sometimes met with lethal force.
  • Restrictions on opposition and media.
  • Crime in Conakry.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Guinea's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Conakry.
  • Mining areas in Boké and Simandou.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Avoid the Axe road on protest days.
  • Secure transport and accommodation.
  • Hibernation plan and stocks.

Assessed risks

  • Caught in protest violence L3 × I4
  • Crime L3 × I3
  • Sudden political disruption L3 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

East AfricaSUBSTANTIAL

Kenya

Watch for

  • Al-Shabaab activity in Garissa, Wajir, Mandera and the Lamu–Boni hinterland, including roadside devices and attacks on security posts, vehicles and communications infrastructure.
  • Terrorist intent against soft targets in Nairobi and Mombasa, demonstrated historically against hotels, malls and transport hubs.
  • Violent urban crime, including armed carjacking and robbery, and express abduction in Nairobi.
  • Protest and public-order events that can escalate rapidly, with movement disruption and force used against crowds.
  • Road traffic risk, which remains the largest single cause of harm to staff nationally.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Routine, predictable movement patterns in Nairobi, and reliance on a small number of well-known venues.
  • North-eastern field movement planned as domestic travel rather than as a cross-border threat environment.
  • Driver standards and vehicle maintenance treated as a fleet matter rather than a security control.
  • No agreed thresholds for pausing movement during protest activity, leaving the decision to individuals in the moment.

Exposure

  • Nairobi offices, accommodation, hotels and conference venues, and Mombasa coastal operations.
  • Field movement and camp operations in Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Dadaab and the Lamu hinterland.
  • Long-distance road movement on the Nairobi–Mombasa, Nairobi–Garissa and northern corridors.

Impact

  • Casualties from an attack on a soft target or a roadside device in the north-east.
  • Injury or death in a road traffic collision, statistically the most likely serious harm.
  • Programme disruption and reputational consequences from an incident involving staff during unrest.

Mitigation

  • Two-tier movement policy: separate approval, vehicle and communications standards for north-eastern and coastal-hinterland travel.
  • Road safety treated as a security control, driver assessment, defensive driving, speed limits, vehicle checks, seatbelt discipline and a night-travel ban.
  • Protest thresholds written down: what triggers a movement pause, who decides, and what staff do if caught out.
  • Urban crime controls: vetted transport, arrival and departure procedures, low-value carry, and a briefing that is repeated rather than issued once.
  • Venue selection criteria for meetings and conferences, and short exposure at high-profile locations.

Assessed risks

  • Roadside device or ambush affecting movement in Garissa, Wajir, Mandera or the Lamu hinterland L3 × I5
  • Attack on a soft target used by staff in Nairobi or Mombasa L2 × I5
  • Road traffic collision during staff movement L4 × I4
  • Violent urban crime, including carjacking or express abduction L3 × I4
  • Staff caught in protest or public-order response L3 × I3

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: High on urban crime and road safety patterns

Indian OceanSUBSTANTIAL

Madagascar

Watch for

  • Political protest and military intervention in Antananarivo.
  • Dahalo banditry in the south and west.
  • Crime in Antananarivo.
  • Cyclones and drought in the south.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Madagascar's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Antananarivo and southern regions.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Hibernation plan.
  • Daylight convoy movement.
  • Seasonal plans.

Assessed risks

  • Political unrest L3 × I3
  • Banditry on rural roads L3 × I4
  • Cyclone disruption L3 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

SahelSUBSTANTIAL

Mauritania

Watch for

  • Spillover risk along the Malian border, including incursions by Malian forces and armed groups.
  • Low-frequency terrorism risk against foreigners.
  • Banditry in remote desert areas.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Mauritania's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Nouakchott and Nouadhibou.
  • Humanitarian operations at Mbera camp in the south-east.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Restrict travel near the border.
  • Authority-coordinated desert travel.
  • Vetted drivers and daylight-only travel.

Assessed risks

  • Border incident near Mali L3 × I4
  • Kidnapping in remote areas L2 × I5
  • Road traffic accidents on long routes L4 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Southern AfricaSUBSTANTIAL

South Africa

Watch for

  • Violent crime, including carjacking, armed robbery and express kidnapping.
  • Protest, xenophobic violence and service-delivery unrest.
  • Infrastructure failure, including power cuts and water outages.
  • Organised extortion targeting construction and business.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside South Africa's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Johannesburg, Pretoria, Cape Town and Durban.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Secure transport, vehicle discipline and residence security.
  • Monitor events and maintain hibernation stocks.
  • Backup power and water.

Assessed risks

  • Carjacking or armed robbery L4 × I4
  • Unrest disruption L3 × I3
  • Infrastructure outage L3 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

West AfricaSUBSTANTIAL

Togo

Watch for

  • JNIM attacks on soldiers and civilians in Savanes.
  • Political repression and protest in Lomé.
  • Maritime crime off the coast.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Togo's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Lomé.
  • Travel to Savanes.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Treat the far north as no-go without escort.
  • Monitor events.
  • Follow maritime security advice.

Assessed risks

  • Attack in Savanes L4 × I5
  • Protest disruption L2 × I3
  • Maritime crime L2 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

North AfricaSUBSTANTIAL

Western Sahara

Watch for

  • Sporadic exchanges of fire and drone strikes near the berm between Moroccan forces and the Polisario Front.
  • Landmines and unexploded ordnance near the berm.
  • Restrictions on journalists, researchers and activists.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Western Sahara's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Travel to Laayoune and Dakhla, largely permissive.
  • Any movement near the berm or into the buffer strip.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Stay on known roads; avoid the berm.
  • Brief staff on sensitivities.
  • Treat the berm area as no-go.

Assessed risks

  • Landmine or ordnance incident L2 × I5
  • Expulsion or detention linked to political activity L3 × I3
  • Exposure to cross-berm fire L2 × I5

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

North AfricaMODERATE

Algeria

Watch for

  • Residual AQIM-linked activity and cross-border movement of armed groups from the Sahel into the far south.
  • Smuggling of fuel, weapons and people along the southern and eastern borders.
  • Periodic protest and policing pressure in Algiers and northern cities, usually contained quickly.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Algeria's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff based in Algiers, Oran and Constantine, mostly in permissive conditions.
  • Travel to hydrocarbon sites and southern wilayas, which requires official coordination and escort.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Restrict southern travel to escorted, authority-coordinated movement.
  • Brief staff on permits and restrictions before travel.
  • Monitor local media and avoid gatherings.

Assessed risks

  • Attack or kidnapping in the southern border regions L2 × I5
  • Detention linked to permits, photography or sensitive topics L2 × I3
  • Disruption from protests in northern cities L2 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Central AfricaMODERATE

Angola

Watch for

  • Violent crime in Luanda.
  • Low-level separatist activity in Cabinda.
  • Protests over living costs, sometimes met with force.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Angola's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Luanda.
  • Travel to Cabinda and the Lunda diamond provinces.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Secure transport and residences.
  • Avoid gatherings.
  • Authority-coordinated travel.

Assessed risks

  • Violent crime L3 × I3
  • Protest violence L2 × I3
  • Cabinda incident L2 × I4

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

East AfricaMODERATE

Burundi

Watch for

  • Localised armed incidents and grenade attacks reported periodically, mainly linked to internal political dynamics.
  • Regional tension involving Rwanda and eastern DRC, with border areas and troop movements as watch items.
  • Political sensitivity: surveillance, questioning and administrative pressure on organisations and their national staff.
  • Routine crime, including robbery in Bujumbura, and armed criminality in some rural areas.
  • Poor road conditions, limited medical capability outside Bujumbura, and periodic fuel shortages.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • National staff carrying the political exposure of the organisation's work with no protocol for questioning or detention.
  • Movement plans that depend on fuel availability and roads that degrade seasonally.
  • Reliance on Bujumbura medical capability with no documented referral for serious cases.
  • Assessments and beneficiary data held in ways that could be read as politically significant.

Exposure

  • Bujumbura offices, accommodation and staff movement.
  • Field operations in provinces near the DRC and Rwandan borders.
  • National staff and local partners, whose exposure continues after international staff leave.

Impact

  • Injury from grenade or armed incident, and casualties from road traffic collision on poor roads.
  • Detention or questioning of national staff, with severe personal and family consequences.
  • Loss of operating permission, and interruption of delivery through fuel or access failure.

Mitigation

  • Written protocol for questioning and detention agreed with national staff, with legal support and family liaison named in advance.
  • Movement planning around fuel and road condition, with journey approval and a night-travel ban.
  • Medical referral pathway documented in advance, including regional escalation for serious cases.
  • Data minimisation and secure handling for assessments and beneficiary information.
  • Compliance and registration kept current, with a documented, non-political public position on the work.

Assessed risks

  • Grenade or armed incident affecting staff or premises L2 × I4
  • Questioning or detention of national staff over the organisation's work L3 × I4
  • Road traffic collision or breakdown on poor roads or during fuel shortage L4 × I3
  • Serious medical emergency without adequate local care L3 × I4
  • Loss of operating permission or administrative restriction L3 × I3

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Low to moderate

Indian OceanMODERATE

Comoros

Watch for

  • Political protest, especially around elections.
  • Cyclone hazards.
  • Limited medical facilities.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Comoros's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Moroni.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Monitor events.
  • Seasonal plans.

Assessed risks

  • Political unrest L2 × I3
  • Cyclone L2 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Central AfricaMODERATE

Congo

Watch for

  • Crime in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire.
  • Residual armed presence in Pool.
  • Political tension around elections.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Congo's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Basic briefings.
  • Assess travel to Pool.

Assessed risks

  • Crime L3 × I2
  • Pool incident L2 × I4

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

West AfricaMODERATE

Côte d'Ivoire

Watch for

  • Sporadic jihadist incidents near the northern borders.
  • Crime in Abidjan, including armed robbery.
  • Political tension around elections.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Côte d'Ivoire's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Abidjan and Yamoussoukro.
  • Travel to northern border districts.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Restrict travel near the borders.
  • Vetted transport and residence security.
  • Hibernation plan around elections.

Assessed risks

  • Northern border incident L2 × I5
  • Crime in Abidjan L3 × I3
  • Election unrest L3 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Horn of AfricaMODERATE

Djibouti

Watch for

  • Regional spillover: proximity to Somalia, Ethiopia and Yemen, and a standing terrorist threat to soft targets used by foreigners.
  • Maritime threat in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden approaches, including attacks on shipping and the consequences for port and crew operations.
  • Petty and opportunistic crime in Djibouti City, concentrated around markets and nightlife areas.
  • Extreme heat and heat-related illness, which causes more staff casualties here than violence does.
  • Irregular migration routes and associated smuggling activity along the coast.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Predictable use of a small number of hotels, restaurants and offices frequented by internationals.
  • Work and movement schedules that ignore the heat cycle, particularly for drivers, guards and field staff.
  • Assumption that a stable base needs no security plan, leaving no incident procedure when something does happen.
  • Sea and port operations planned without reference to maritime security advisories.

Exposure

  • Djibouti City offices, accommodation and venues used by international staff.
  • Port, corridor and warehouse operations, and the Djibouti–Addis Ababa road and rail corridor.
  • Coastal and maritime activity in the Bab al-Mandab approaches.

Impact

  • Casualties from an attack on a venue frequented by foreigners, however low the likelihood.
  • Heat illness and preventable deaths among outdoor and vehicle-based staff.
  • Corridor and port disruption cascading into supply failure for programmes in Ethiopia and the wider region.

Mitigation

  • Vary venues and timings; assess the small number of routinely used hotels and offices for stand-off and access control.
  • Heat management as a security control: work-rest cycles, hydration, scheduling around the hottest hours, and heat-illness recognition training.
  • A written incident and evacuation procedure even in a stable base, with contact tree and rehearsed first hour.
  • Maritime and port operations planned against current maritime security advisories, with contingency routing for the corridor.
  • Journey management on the Ethiopia corridor, treating it as a regional route rather than a domestic one.

Assessed risks

  • Attack on a hotel, restaurant or venue frequented by internationals L2 × I5
  • Heat-related illness or death among drivers, guards or field staff L4 × I3
  • Corridor or port disruption interrupting regional supply L3 × I3
  • Opportunistic crime against staff in Djibouti City L3 × I2

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

North AfricaMODERATE

Egypt

Watch for

  • Islamic State Sinai Province capability much reduced but not eliminated in North Sinai.
  • Low-probability, high-impact terrorism against security forces, churches or tourist sites.
  • Spillover pressures from the Sudan war along the southern border and Gaza on the north-east.
  • Red Sea and Suez Canal disruption linked to Houthi attacks on shipping.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Egypt's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Cairo and Alexandria, and travellers to tourist and Red Sea coastal sites.
  • Humanitarian operations at the Aswan and Rafah border areas.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Vary routines and limit time at high-profile sites.
  • Clear research activity with counterparts and brief staff on the law.
  • Treat North Sinai as no-go without official authorisation.

Assessed risks

  • Terrorist attack in a crowded or symbolic location L2 × I5
  • Detention linked to journalism, research or social media L3 × I3
  • Movement into restricted Sinai zones L2 × I4

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Central AfricaMODERATE

Equatorial Guinea

Watch for

  • Arbitrary detention and harassment at checkpoints.
  • Restrictions on movement and photography.
  • Maritime crime in the Gulf of Guinea.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Equatorial Guinea's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Malabo and Bata.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Carry documents and brief staff.
  • Follow maritime advisories.

Assessed risks

  • Detention at checkpoints L3 × I3
  • Maritime crime L2 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Horn of AfricaMODERATE

Eritrea

Watch for

  • State control of movement, communications and information, with travel permits required for movement outside Asmara.
  • Surveillance and the risk of detention over perceived political activity, reporting or contact with certain individuals.
  • Unresolved border tension with Ethiopia, and proximity to the Sudan conflict on the western border.
  • Low but non-zero risk of landmines and explosive remnants in former border conflict areas.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Assessments and reporting written on the assumption of private communications, in a context where that assumption is unsafe.
  • Staff unbriefed on what constitutes a legal risk locally, including photography, mapping and unauthorised movement.
  • Programme plans that depend on permissions with no committed timeline.
  • Little independent public reporting to corroborate any assessment.

Exposure

  • Asmara-based staff and visitors, and permitted movement to regional towns.
  • Any movement near the Ethiopian or Sudanese borders.
  • Digital exposure: devices, files and communications carried into and out of the country.

Impact

  • Detention, questioning or expulsion of staff, and loss of permission to operate.
  • Harm to local contacts and staff whose association with the organisation is documented.
  • Injury from explosive remnants in former border-conflict areas.

Mitigation

  • Written legal and behavioural briefing for all staff and visitors: photography, mapping, movement permits, and what not to discuss or carry.
  • Information-handling discipline: minimum data on devices, no lists of local contacts held in-country, and an assumption of non-private communications.
  • Movement only with valid permits, planned around processing time rather than hoping for it.
  • Explosive-ordnance awareness and adherence to marked routes near former conflict areas.
  • A documented plan for what happens if a staff member is detained, including consular routes and family liaison.

Assessed risks

  • Detention or questioning of staff over movement, photography or perceived political activity L3 × I4
  • Harm to local staff or contacts through documented association L2 × I5
  • Movement or programme blocked by withheld permissions L4 × I2
  • Injury from explosive remnants of war near former border-conflict areas L2 × I5

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Low to moderate

Southern AfricaMODERATE

Eswatini

Watch for

  • Political protest and heavy-handed policing.
  • Crime in Mbabane and Manzini.
  • High HIV prevalence affecting workforce planning.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Eswatini's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Mbabane and Manzini.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Monitor events.
  • Basic briefings.

Assessed risks

  • Political unrest L2 × I3
  • Crime L3 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Central AfricaMODERATE

Gabon

Watch for

  • Political tension during the transition.
  • Crime in Libreville.
  • Maritime crime offshore.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Gabon's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Libreville and Port-Gentil.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Monitor events.
  • Basic briefings.

Assessed risks

  • Political disruption L2 × I3
  • Crime L2 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

West AfricaMODERATE

Ghana

Watch for

  • Chieftaincy and communal violence, notably in Bawku.
  • Risk of Sahel jihadist spillover in the north.
  • Urban crime and fraud in Accra and Kumasi.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Ghana's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Accra and Kumasi.
  • Travel to the Upper East and Northern regions.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Follow local curfews and avoid the area during flare-ups.
  • Vetted suppliers and personal security briefings.
  • Monitor the border regions.

Assessed risks

  • Communal violence in Bawku L3 × I4
  • Crime and fraud L3 × I2
  • Northern spillover incident L2 × I5

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

West AfricaMODERATE

Guinea-Bissau

Watch for

  • Political instability and coup attempts.
  • Drug-trafficking networks.
  • Petty crime in Bissau.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Guinea-Bissau's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Bissau.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Hibernation plan.
  • Basic briefings.

Assessed risks

  • Political crisis or coup L3 × I3
  • Petty crime L2 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Southern AfricaMODERATE

Lesotho

Watch for

  • Violent crime in Maseru.
  • Gang violence linked to music and mining.
  • Political instability within coalitions.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Lesotho's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Maseru.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Residence security and night-movement limits.
  • Monitor events.

Assessed risks

  • Violent crime L3 × I3
  • Political disruption L2 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

West AfricaMODERATE

Liberia

Watch for

  • Armed and street crime in Monrovia.
  • Protests linked to economic grievances.
  • Weak road infrastructure.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Liberia's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Monrovia and county capitals.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Residence security and night-movement limits.
  • Vetted drivers and vehicles.
  • Monitor local media.

Assessed risks

  • Crime in Monrovia L3 × I3
  • Road accidents L4 × I3
  • Protest disruption L2 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Southern AfricaMODERATE

Malawi

Watch for

  • Cyclones and floods (Freddy, 2023).
  • Fuel and foreign-exchange shortages.
  • Crime in Lilongwe and Blantyre.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Malawi's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Lilongwe, Blantyre and southern districts.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Seasonal contingency plans.
  • Basic briefings.
  • Fuel reserves.

Assessed risks

  • Flood or cyclone disruption L3 × I3
  • Crime L3 × I2
  • Fuel shortage disruption L3 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

North AfricaMODERATE

Morocco

Watch for

  • Low-frequency terrorism risk, with regular disruption of cells by security services.
  • Street crime and scams in large cities and tourist areas.
  • Earthquake and flood hazards, as shown by the 2023 Al Haouz earthquake.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Morocco's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Rabat, Casablanca, Marrakech and Tangier.
  • Travel to the Atlas and southern regions.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Low-profile conduct and vetted transport.
  • Awareness of crowded locations and emergency plans.
  • Earthquake preparedness and staff tracking.

Assessed risks

  • Opportunistic crime against foreigners L3 × I2
  • Terrorist attack on tourist sites L1 × I5
  • Natural hazard disrupting operations L2 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

West AfricaMODERATE

Senegal

Watch for

  • Political protest in Dakar.
  • Residual landmines and low-level armed presence in Casamance.
  • Risk of Sahel spillover along the eastern border with Mali.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Senegal's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Dakar.
  • Travel to Casamance and the eastern border.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Monitor political events.
  • Stay on main roads.
  • Monitor the Mali border.

Assessed risks

  • Protest disruption L2 × I3
  • Landmine incident in Casamance L1 × I5
  • Eastern border incident L2 × I4

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

West AfricaMODERATE

Sierra Leone

Watch for

  • Political tension and protest around elections.
  • Urban crime in Freetown.
  • Weak infrastructure and health-system fragility.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Sierra Leone's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Freetown and district towns.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Monitor events and maintain a hibernation plan.
  • Personal security briefings.

Assessed risks

  • Political unrest L2 × I3
  • Crime L3 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

North AfricaMODERATE

Tunisia

Watch for

  • Small jihadist cells in the Chaambi and western border mountains.
  • Low-probability attacks on tourist or security targets, as in 2015.
  • Protest and unrest linked to economic hardship and migration tensions in Sfax.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Tunisia's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Tunis and coastal cities.
  • Travel to the Algerian and Libyan border zones.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Limit time at symbolic sites.
  • Monitor local tensions and adjust movement.
  • Brief staff on decree-law restrictions.

Assessed risks

  • Attack on a tourist or security target L2 × I5
  • Unrest around migration in Sfax L3 × I3
  • Detention for political commentary L2 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

East AfricaMODERATE

Uganda

Watch for

  • ADF-linked attacks and cross-border armed activity affecting western districts near the DRC border, including attacks on villages and roads.
  • Occasional attacks and attempted attacks in urban centres, with intent against soft targets.
  • Politically driven public-order events, particularly around election cycles, with the risk of force used against crowds and of restrictions on movement and communications.
  • Cattle-raiding and armed criminality in parts of Karamoja.
  • Urban crime in Kampala, including robbery targeting foreigners, and significant road traffic risk on inter-city routes.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Field movement in western districts planned without reference to cross-border armed activity.
  • Assumption that a permissive country needs no incident procedure or movement thresholds.
  • Visible association with politically sensitive activity or partners without an assessment of the consequences for staff.
  • Motorcycle-taxi use and night road movement treated as normal practice.

Exposure

  • Field operations and refugee-hosting districts in the west and south-west, and in Karamoja.
  • Kampala offices, accommodation and movement, and inter-city road travel.
  • Public gatherings, and any activity coinciding with electoral events.

Impact

  • Casualties from armed attack or crossfire in western border districts.
  • Injury or death from road traffic collision, including motorcycle-taxi use.
  • Detention, deregistration or operational restriction following political friction.

Mitigation

  • District-level movement rules for the western border and Karamoja, with approval, comms and timing standards.
  • Road safety controls including a prohibition on motorcycle-taxi use for work movement and a night-travel ban.
  • Election and public-order planning: monitoring, movement-pause thresholds, remote-working capability and stock buffer.
  • Registration, reporting and compliance kept current, with legal advice retained before politically sensitive activity.
  • Incident procedure and contact tree in place and rehearsed, in Kampala as much as in the field.

Assessed risks

  • Armed attack or crossfire affecting staff in western border districts L3 × I4
  • Road traffic collision, including motorcycle-taxi use L4 × I4
  • Staff caught in public-order events around an election cycle L3 × I3
  • Administrative or legal restriction on operations L3 × I3

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate to high

Southern AfricaMODERATE

Zimbabwe

Watch for

  • Arbitrary arrest linked to political activity or journalism.
  • Crime in Harare and Bulawayo.
  • Currency and supply shortages.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Zimbabwe's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Harare and Bulawayo.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Brief staff and keep a neutral profile.
  • Basic briefings.
  • Cash and fuel contingencies.

Assessed risks

  • Detention linked to political activity L2 × I3
  • Crime L3 × I2
  • Supply shortages L3 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Southern AfricaLOW

Botswana

Watch for

  • Opportunistic crime in Gaborone and Francistown.
  • Road accidents, including with wildlife.
  • Economic pressure from the diamond downturn.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Botswana's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Gaborone and travellers to safari areas.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Basic briefings.
  • Daylight driving and vetted vehicles.

Assessed risks

  • Crime L2 × I2
  • Road accidents L3 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High

West AfricaLOW

Cabo Verde

Watch for

  • Petty and street crime in Praia and Mindelo.
  • Drug-trafficking transit linked to Atlantic routes.
  • Maritime and weather hazards.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Cabo Verde's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff and visitors in Praia, Mindelo and Sal.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Basic personal security briefings.
  • Flexible travel planning.

Assessed risks

  • Street crime L3 × I2
  • Maritime or weather disruption L2 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High

West AfricaLOW

Gambia

Watch for

  • Petty crime in tourist areas.
  • Low-level political tension.
  • Irregular migration pressures.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Gambia's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff and visitors in Banjul and the coastal strip.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Basic personal security briefings.
  • Monitor local news.

Assessed risks

  • Petty crime L3 × I2
  • Political protest L2 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High

Indian OceanLOW

Mauritius

Watch for

  • Petty crime.
  • Cyclones.
  • Drug-related crime.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Mauritius's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff and visitors in Port Louis and coastal areas.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Basic briefings.
  • Seasonal plans.

Assessed risks

  • Petty crime L2 × I2
  • Cyclone L2 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High

Southern AfricaLOW

Namibia

Watch for

  • Crime in Windhoek.
  • Road accidents on long routes.
  • Drought affecting rural livelihoods.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Namibia's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Windhoek and travellers in remote areas.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Basic briefings.
  • Daylight driving.

Assessed risks

  • Crime L2 × I2
  • Road accidents L3 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High

East AfricaLOW

Rwanda

Watch for

  • Regional tension and armed activity across the border in eastern DRC, with occasional cross-border incidents and periodic border closures in the north-west.
  • Political and information sensitivity: restrictions and legal exposure around research, reporting and public comment.
  • Road traffic risk on hill roads, particularly in rain and at night.
  • Low but present opportunistic crime in Kigali.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Research, interviews and reporting conducted without an assessment of the legal and personal exposure for participants and national staff.
  • Assumption that low crime means no incident planning, leaving no procedure for a cross-border escalation.
  • Movement to the north-west planned without reference to border status.
  • Data on devices and in reports that could identify individuals.

Exposure

  • Kigali offices, accommodation and visitor movement.
  • North-western districts near the DRC border, including movement to Gisenyi and Rubavu.
  • Interviews, assessments and data collection involving individuals who may be identifiable.

Impact

  • Harm to participants, contacts or national staff arising from identifiable data or reporting.
  • Injury or death from road traffic collision.
  • Sudden loss of access or movement disruption in the north-west during cross-border escalation.

Mitigation

  • Information and data-protection discipline: minimum data collected, anonymisation by default, informed consent, no identifiable contact lists on devices.
  • Legal review before publishing or conducting politically sensitive research, and a briefing on local law for all staff and visitors.
  • Road safety controls: driver standards, night-travel restriction, wet-weather rules on hill roads, vehicle checks.
  • North-west movement rules linked to border status, with contingency plans and suspension thresholds.
  • Incident procedure and contact tree in place, however low the incident rate.

Assessed risks

  • Harm to participants, contacts or staff through identifiable data or reporting L2 × I5
  • Road traffic collision on hill roads or in wet conditions L3 × I4
  • Cross-border escalation disrupting north-western operations L3 × I3
  • Legal or administrative exposure from research or public comment L2 × I4

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate

Central AfricaLOW

Sao Tome and Principe

Watch for

  • Petty crime.
  • Maritime crime in surrounding waters.
  • Occasional political tension.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Sao Tome and Principe's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff and visitors in São Tomé.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Basic briefings.
  • Maritime advisories.

Assessed risks

  • Petty crime L2 × I2
  • Maritime incident L2 × I3

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High

Indian OceanLOW

Seychelles

Watch for

  • Petty crime.
  • Regional piracy risk at sea.
  • Weather hazards.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Seychelles's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff and visitors on Mahé and Praslin; maritime operations.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Basic briefings.
  • Follow UKMTO and EU NAVFOR guidance.

Assessed risks

  • Petty crime L2 × I2
  • Piracy at sea L2 × I4

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High

East AfricaLOW

Tanzania

Watch for

  • Opportunistic and occasionally violent crime in Dar es Salaam, Arusha and Zanzibar, including robbery targeting foreigners.
  • Localised threat in Mtwara and the Ruvuma border area linked to the insurgency in northern Mozambique.
  • Significant road traffic risk on inter-city highways, and maritime safety risk on ferry routes.
  • Regulatory and administrative risk: registration, permits, data and reporting requirements enforced unevenly.
  • Public-order events around political milestones, generally localised.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Low perceived threat leading to no security plan, no incident procedure and no briefing.
  • Night road movement and long inter-city driving accepted as normal.
  • Ferry and boat movement without a check on operator standards or lifejacket availability.
  • Compliance treated as an administrative task rather than an operational risk.

Exposure

  • Dar es Salaam, Arusha and Zanzibar offices, accommodation and visitor movement.
  • Inter-city road movement and field operations, including south-eastern regions.
  • Ferry and boat movement, including Zanzibar and lake routes.

Impact

  • Injury or death from road traffic collision or a marine incident.
  • Loss of assets and staff welfare consequences from violent crime.
  • Suspension of operations or loss of registration following a compliance failure.

Mitigation

  • Road safety programme: driver standards, journey approval for long routes, speed policy, night-travel ban, vehicle checks.
  • Marine movement standards: operator selection, lifejackets, manifest, and a rule against overloaded vessels.
  • Crime controls proportionate to the threat: area briefing, transport arrangements, cash-handling rules, residence standards.
  • Compliance calendar with named owners for registration, permits, tax and reporting deadlines.
  • Separate movement standard for Mtwara and Ruvuma border districts, with monitoring of cross-border incident reporting.

Assessed risks

  • Road traffic collision on an inter-city route L4 × I4
  • Violent or opportunistic crime against staff or visitors L3 × I3
  • Marine incident on a ferry or boat movement L2 × I5
  • Security incident in south-eastern border districts L2 × I4
  • Regulatory or registration failure interrupting operations L3 × I3

Reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate to high on crime and road safety

Southern AfricaLOW

Zambia

Watch for

  • Crime in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.
  • Load-shedding from low hydropower output.
  • Political tension around elections.
Full indicator set

Vulnerability

  • Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Zambia's main urban centres.
  • Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
  • Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
  • Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Exposure

  • Staff in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.

Impact

  • Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
  • Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
  • Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Mitigation

  • Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
  • Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
  • Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
  • Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
  • Basic briefings.
  • Backup power.

Assessed risks

  • Crime L2 × I2
  • Power-cut disruption L4 × I2

Reviewed October 2026 · Confidence: High

Early warning · Somalia

Somalia indicator set

Analyst-defined indicators reviewed on a fixed weekly rhythm against public reporting. Statuses are judgements, not measurements, and this is not a continuous monitoring service.

Somalia early-warning indicators with thresholds and decisions
RefAreaIndicatorThresholdDecision it triggersConfidence
SO-EW-01Mogadishu · BanadirComplex attacks on hotels and government compoundsAttacks of this type change where meetings can be held and how visitors are accommodated, more than they change overall threat level.Two or more reported attacks on hotel or compound targets inside four weeks.Suspend hotel-based meetings, move to compound venues, and review accommodation used by visiting staff.Moderate
SO-EW-02Mogadishu · Airport corridorCheckpoint and airport-road disruptionThe corridor is the single point almost every international movement passes through, so disruption there affects everyone at once.Repeated same-week disruption, or any incident inside the corridor itself.Move airport runs to first light, cut the number of runs, and hold a same-day movement review.Moderate
SO-EW-03South-Central corridorsIED incidents on main supply routesRoute IED activity is the clearest signal that overland movement assumptions have gone stale.Any confirmed device on a route used by programme movement within the previous fortnight.Stop non-essential road movement on that route, revert to air where available, and re-run the journey risk assessment.Moderate
SO-EW-04NationalAid-worker abduction and detention reportingThis indicator tracks the risk that actually falls on staff, rather than the wider conflict picture.Any incident affecting an organisation working in the same districts.Review movement profile, intermediary arrangements and duty-of-care briefing for affected districts.Moderate
SO-EW-05Districts under armed-group influenceAccess taxation and interference demandsInterference usually precedes either withdrawal or an unacceptable compromise, and both need a decision above field level.Any new demand pattern in a district where programmes operate.Escalate to country leadership, pause new commitments in that district, and record the decision.Low
SO-EW-06Puntland · Bari and SanaagISS-attributed activity and security-force operationsActivity here moves an area that is often treated as permissive into a different planning category.Any reported attack or sustained operation in a district with programme presence.Reassess the area threat level and confirm whether field visits continue.Moderate
SO-EW-07Somaliland and Puntland boundaryBoundary-district political and armed frictionBoundary flashpoints escalate quickly and cut cross-boundary movement with little notice.Any reported mobilisation or clash affecting a route in use.Suspend cross-boundary movement and confirm alternative access before resuming.Moderate
SO-EW-08NationalFood-security and displacement deteriorationDeterioration raises crowding, tension at distribution points and pressure on staff, which is a security matter as well as a programme one.A published deterioration in classification for a district with programme presence.Review distribution-site crowd management and site security arrangements.High
SO-EW-09NationalPolitical and electoral disputesPolitical disputes in Somalia have repeatedly produced short-notice armed standoffs in urban areas.Any dispute producing security-force deployment in a city with staff presence.Hold movement in the affected city, confirm accounting for staff, and brief on stay-put arrangements.Moderate
SO-EW-10Air accessAir-service and airport availabilityWhere air access is the primary route, its loss removes both movement and relocation options at once.Any suspension expected to last more than 48 hours.Confirm overland contingency, review staffing levels in the affected location, and reassess relocation planning.Moderate

Observation sources: Somali national media monitoring, ACLED conflict event data, Insecurity Insight aid-security reporting, Operator and airline notices, Analyst assessment, Local media monitoring, Insecurity Insight, Aid Worker Security Database reporting, UN OCHA Somalia reporting, UN OCHA access reporting, Cluster and NGO forum reporting, Puntland and regional media monitoring, Regional media monitoring, FEWS NET, FSNAU, International Crisis Group, UNHAS and operator notices.

Cross-cutting indicators

DeterioratingSomaliaReliability: BConfidence: ModerateUpdated: Sept 2026

Armed-group operational tempo

Why it matters
Attack frequency and ambition are the clearest signal of intent and freedom of movement.
Current assessment
Higher likelihood of complex attacks in urban districts and pressure on supply corridors.
What would change it
Claimed attacks by district, target selection, method shifts, timing patterns.

Source: named public reporting in the Africa Intelligence Source Registry · Reliability: B–C by source · Evidence date: reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate · Status: Assessed

WatchSomaliaReliability: BConfidence: ModerateUpdated: Sept 2026

Security-force deployments and withdrawals

Why it matters
Force posture changes create vacuums that armed groups and criminal actors move into.
Current assessment
Loss of route security on previously usable corridors within days, not months.
What would change it
Base handovers, checkpoint staffing, forward-operating-base changes, transition milestones.

Source: named public reporting in the Africa Intelligence Source Registry · Reliability: B–C by source · Evidence date: reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate · Status: Assessed

DeterioratingSomaliaReliability: BConfidence: ModerateUpdated: Sept 2026

Federal–state political tension

Why it matters
Political disputes translate quickly into contested security control and administrative obstruction.
Current assessment
Permit refusal, movement restriction and localised armed standoffs affecting programmes.
What would change it
Electoral disputes, appointment rows, mobilisation of aligned forces, rhetoric shifts.

Source: named public reporting in the Africa Intelligence Source Registry · Reliability: B–C by source · Evidence date: reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate · Status: Assessed

EscalatingSomalia · EthiopiaReliability: BConfidence: ModerateUpdated: Sept 2026

Inter-clan and resource conflict

Why it matters
Land, water and revenue disputes are the most common cause of localised violence for field teams.
Current assessment
Sudden route closure, displacement into programme areas, staff caught in reprisal cycles.
What would change it
Grazing and water disputes, revenge-killing reports, elder mediation outcomes.

Source: named public reporting in the Africa Intelligence Source Registry · Reliability: B–C by source · Evidence date: reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate · Status: Assessed

DeterioratingHorn of AfricaReliability: BConfidence: ModerateUpdated: Sept 2026

Corridor disruption and illegal taxation

Why it matters
Corridors are where most staff exposure and most supply risk actually sit.
Current assessment
Convoy delays, informal payment pressure, cost escalation and programme slippage.
What would change it
Checkpoint counts, new taxation points, transporter refusals, insurance signals.

Source: named public reporting in the Africa Intelligence Source Registry · Reliability: B–C by source · Evidence date: reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate · Status: Assessed

WatchKenya · Ethiopia · SudanReliability: BConfidence: ModerateUpdated: Sept 2026

Urban civil unrest

Why it matters
Unrest closes cities faster than any other event type and threatens staff commuting.
Current assessment
Office closure, movement pause, staff stranded, procurement and banking interruption.
What would change it
Protest calls, union action, fuel and food pricing, security-force posture.

Source: named public reporting in the Africa Intelligence Source Registry · Reliability: B–C by source · Evidence date: reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate · Status: Assessed

EscalatingSomalia · SudanReliability: BConfidence: ModerateUpdated: Sept 2026

Humanitarian access deterioration

Why it matters
Access loss precedes both programme failure and higher staff risk-taking to compensate.
Current assessment
Suspension of assistance, remote-management drift and weakened verification.
What would change it
Access-incident reports, NGO expulsion or suspension, partner withdrawal, area denial.

Source: named public reporting in the Africa Intelligence Source Registry · Reliability: B–C by source · Evidence date: reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate · Status: Assessed

WatchHorn of AfricaReliability: BConfidence: ModerateUpdated: Sept 2026

Border and cross-border developments

Why it matters
Border friction affects staff visas, supply flow and the political tone of operations.
Current assessment
Crossing closure, cargo backlog, sudden regulatory demands, staff movement blocked.
What would change it
Diplomatic statements, crossing closures, port agreements, troop movements.

Source: named public reporting in the Africa Intelligence Source Registry · Reliability: B–C by source · Evidence date: reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate · Status: Assessed

DeterioratingRed SeaReliability: BConfidence: ModerateUpdated: Sept 2026

Maritime security in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea

Why it matters
Shipping risk drives cost, routing and lead time for almost all imported programme supply.
Current assessment
Longer lead times, insurance surcharges, stock-outs in inland programmes.
What would change it
Attack and approach reports, naval posture, insurance war-risk zones, rerouting notices.

Source: named public reporting in the Africa Intelligence Source Registry · Reliability: B–C by source · Evidence date: reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate · Status: Assessed

WatchAfrica-wideReliability: BConfidence: ModerateUpdated: Sept 2026

Seasonal hazard and displacement

Why it matters
Flood and drought cycles reshape both need and movement feasibility.
Current assessment
Route loss, displacement into unplanned areas, competition-driven local tension.
What would change it
Rainfall forecasts, river levels, displacement tracking, food-security phase changes.

Source: named public reporting in the Africa Intelligence Source Registry · Reliability: B–C by source · Evidence date: reviewed September 2026 · Confidence: Moderate · Status: Assessed

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