Operating domains
Sudan: inland, maritime and aviation
Published open-source records for Sudan, sorted by where the risk falls. Counts reflect what public reporting covers, not the full situation.
Roads, borders, cities, corridors, conflict and unrest affecting people and operations on land.
Sudan war: Four women killed in drone strikes on Ed Damazin, Blue Nile
7 Oct 2026 · Confidence low · Radio Dabanga
Sudan WFP aid convoy attack draws widespread condemnation
6 Oct 2026 · Confidence low · Radio Dabanga
Sudan: Driver killed in aerial attack on aid trucks in South Kordofan
5 Oct 2026 · Confidence low · UN News Africa
Drone strike hits strategic fuel depot in central Sudan
27 Sept 2026 · Confidence low · GDELT · radiotamazuj.org
Ports, anchorages, shipping lanes, piracy, armed robbery, attacks on vessels and naval activity.
Sudan: 200,000 Newly Displaced as Fighting and Floods Intensify, Closure of Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz Threatens Critical Aid
15 Sept 2026 · Confidence low · IOM
Airports, airspace closures, flight disruption, threats to aircraft and aviation infrastructure.
No published aviation records for Sudan in the current collection. This is a gap in open reporting, not evidence of low risk.
Sudan security dashboard
An active war between two conventional forces, with urban artillery and air strikes, mass displacement, siege conditions in parts of Darfur and Kordofan, and a collapsed banking and supply environment. This is not a country-risk problem so much as a war environment: presence decisions, not mitigation measures, carry most of the risk.
Every judgement on these dashboards is an analyst reading of public reporting. Direction of travel is a judgement, not a measurement. Nothing here is live monitoring: the picture is refreshed when the desk reviews the country, and the review date is shown.
Assessed risks by severity
Analyst ratings of likelihood and impact on a five-by-five scale, scored 1–25. These are judgements from public reporting, not measured values.
- SD-A1 Staff killed or injured by indirect fire or air attack in a contested urban areaCRITICAL · 20 of 25
Likelihood Likely · Impact Severe
- SD-A2 Armed looting of premises, vehicles or warehoused stockCRITICAL · 20 of 25
Likelihood Almost certain · Impact Major
- SD-A3 Detention or interrogation of staff at a checkpoint or cross-line crossingSEVERE · 16 of 25
Likelihood Likely · Impact Major
- SD-A5 National staff and dependants left exposed after international relocationSEVERE · 16 of 25
Likelihood Likely · Impact Major
- SD-A4 Death or injury from explosive remnants of war in an area fighting has passed throughSEVERE · 15 of 25
Likelihood Possible · Impact Severe
Risk matrix
Where each rated risk sits once likelihood and impact are combined.
| Likelihood / Impact | Insignificant | Minor | Moderate | Major | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain | — | — | — | SD-A2 | — |
| Likely | — | — | — | SD-A3 SD-A5 | SD-A1 |
| Possible | — | — | — | — | SD-A4 |
| Unlikely | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rare | — | — | — | — | — |
Residual position: Extreme in the conflict-affected states. Presence should be justified activity by activity, with residual risk accepted at board level and reviewed continuously rather than quarterly.
What is driving the picture
War between SAF and RSF
Two forces with heavy weapons contesting cities, with front lines that move and no reliable deconfliction for civilian movement.
Ethnic targeting in Darfur
Reported mass atrocity against specific communities, which changes the character of risk for local staff by identity rather than by role.
Collapse of civil systems
Banking, fuel, telecommunications and health services function intermittently, so ordinary logistics become the operational risk.
External backing
Supply of materiel and money from outside actors sustains both sides and lengthens the war, and shifts in that backing show up as changes in offensive capability.
Indicator watchlist
What an analyst looks for in open reporting, and why a change in it matters for people working in the country.
| Indicator | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Front-line movement around Khartoum, El Fasher, El Obeid and the Kordofan corridors. | Determines which routes and airfields exist at all in a given month. |
| Drone and air-strike reporting away from established front lines, including Port Sudan. | Tests the assumption that any part of the country is a safe rear area. |
| Aid convoy clearance, cross-border movement from Chad and South Sudan, and visa or travel-permit practice. | The practical determinant of whether assistance reaches besieged areas. |
| Reported detention, looting of premises and interference with local staff by either force. | The most common way civilian organisations are actually harmed in this conflict. |
Actors that matter
- Sudanese Armed Forces
State military with air power, controlling shifting territory and formal authorisation channels.
- Rapid Support Forces
Paramilitary force holding large areas, associated with looting, occupation of premises and ethnic targeting.
- Aligned militias and armed movements
Local formations aligned to either side, or holding ground independently, with their own conduct.
- Civil emergency response rooms
Neighbourhood volunteer networks that carry much of the local response and are themselves targeted.
Sources and what they cannot see
- Radio Dabanga, Sudan Tribune and Sudan War Monitor reporting
- ACLED conflict event records for Sudan
- UN OCHA Sudan situation reports, IPC analysis and ReliefWeb
- Insecurity Insight and aid-worker security reporting
- Satellite-derived damage and displacement analysis published openly
Access to Darfur and Kordofan is severely constrained, so absence of reporting cannot be read as absence of violence. Both belligerents make claims that cannot be verified from open sources.
Source Reliability: B · Analyst Confidence: Moderate. Reporting is credible but partial; access constraints, communications failure and the pace of front-line change mean the picture lags reality.
Operational implications
- Programme criticality review: agree in writing which activities justify presence, and stop the rest.
- Minimum footprint, no fuel or vehicle stockpiles at staffed premises; disperse stock; keep cash holdings low and documented.
- Cross-line movement only with permissions from every relevant party, confirmed the same day, with a no-go default.
- National staff support built in from the start: relocation options, salary continuity, family contact arrangements, and a decision about what is owed if international staff withdraw.
- Explosive-ordnance awareness briefing for all staff, route clearance information from mine-action actors, and a rule against entering unswept damaged buildings.
- Relocation and hibernation plans written, resourced and rehearsed, with trigger indicators agreed before they are needed.
Same public feeds as the daily digest
Sudan threat timeline
Newest first. Only records scoring 3 or more out of 5 for security relevance appear. Automated records stay "Reported" until corroborated; confidence describes the evidence, not how serious the event is.
7 October 2026
- SudanConflict & Political Violence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudan war: Four women killed in drone strikes on Ed Damazin, Blue Nile
Why it matters: It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The development could alter the operating environment if the reported indicator persists or escalates.
Source: Radio Dabanga · grade COpen source
6 October 2026
- SudanTerrorism & Armed Groups5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudan WFP aid convoy attack draws widespread condemnation
Why it matters: It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The development could alter the operating environment if the reported indicator persists or escalates.
Source: Radio Dabanga · grade COpen source
5 October 2026
- SudanConflict & Political Violence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudan: Driver killed in aerial attack on aid trucks in South Kordofan
Why it matters: It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The development could alter the operating environment if the reported indicator persists or escalates.
Source: UN News Africa · grade FOpen source
28 September 2026
- SudanCivil Unrest & Protests4/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudanese army impounds dozens of motorcycles in Blue Nile curfew
Why it matters: It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The development could alter the operating environment if the reported indicator persists or escalates.
Source: Al Jazeera (Africa desk) · grade BOpen source
27 September 2026
- SudanConflict & Political Violence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Drone strike hits strategic fuel depot in central Sudan
Why it matters: It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The development could alter the operating environment if the reported indicator persists or escalates.
Source: GDELT · radiotamazuj.org · grade FOpen source
21 September 2026
- SudanMilitary & Defence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Civilians flee North Kordofan as fighting escalates
Why it matters: It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The development could alter the operating environment if the reported indicator persists or escalates.
Source: Radio Dabanga · grade COpen source
15 September 2026
- SudanMaritime Security4/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudan: 200,000 Newly Displaced as Fighting and Floods Intensify, Closure of Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz Threatens Critical Aid
Why it matters: The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Operational relevance: High — The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Source: IOM · grade AOpen source
8 September 2026
- SudanConflict & Political Violence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Drone strike near courthouse in central Sudan kills 13
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Low — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: GDELT · thefrontierpost.com · grade FOpen source
- SudanConflict & Political Violence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Arab News | Drone strike near courthouse in central Sudan kills 12
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Low — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: GDELT · arabnews.com · grade FOpen source
6 September 2026
- SudanConflict & Political Violence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudan groups urge UN to expand arms embargo amid drone strikes
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Low — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: GDELT · africaleader.com · grade FOpen source
- SudanHumanitarian Security4/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Intl coalition condemns attack on WFP aid convoy in Kordofan , Sudan
Why it matters: The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Operational relevance: High — The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Source: GDELT · dabangasudan.org · grade FOpen source
5 September 2026
- SudanConflict & Political Violence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Over 20 killed in attacks , shelling in Sudan South Kordofan
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: GDELT · siasat.com · grade FOpen source
3 September 2026
- SudanMaritime Security4/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
RSF targets UN aid convoy in Sudan South Kordofan , killing 1 , injuring 2 : Report
Why it matters: The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Operational relevance: High — The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Source: GDELT · aa.com.tr · grade FOpen source
2 September 2026
- SudanConflict & Political Violence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudan Airstrike Destroys Food Aid in South Kordofan
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Low — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: GDELT · miragenews.com · grade FOpen source
28 August 2026
- SudanCivil Unrest & Protests4/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Two-year curfew lifted in Sudan’s capital
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: Capital FM News (Kenya) · grade COpen source
- SudanCivil Unrest & Protests4/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Two-year curfew lifted in Sudan's capital
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: BBC News Africa · grade BOpen source
- SudanCivil Unrest & Protests4/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudan lifts two-year curfew in Khartoum amid ongoing war
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Low — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: Africanews · grade COpen source
24 August 2026
- SudanBorder & Territorial Security5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Neighbor accuses Sudan of cross - border airstrikes
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: GDELT · sierraleonetimes.com · grade FOpen source
- SudanBorder & Territorial Security5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Neighbor accuses Sudan of cross - border airstrikes
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: GDELT · nigeriasun.com · grade FOpen source
- SudanKidnapping & Abduction5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudan Christians Mark UN Day Amid Killings , Abductions In Nuba Mountains
Why it matters: The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Operational relevance: High — The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Source: GDELT · worthynews.com · grade FOpen source
- SudanMilitary & Defence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Chad accuses Sudanese army of targeting convoy in Chadian territory
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: Africanews · grade COpen source
- SudanKidnapping & Abduction5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Security Council LIVE: War, hunger, flooding escalates in Sudan
Why it matters: It may directly affect safe movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Operational relevance: High — The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Source: UN News Africa · grade FOpen source
18 August 2026
- SudanConflict & Political Violence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
On World Humanitarian Day, INEW warns that aid and health workers are being killed by explosive weapons in populated areas
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Low — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: ReliefWeb · grade AOpen source
17 August 2026
- SudanHumanitarian Security4/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
World: Aid workers pay the price as drone warfare reshapes conflict
Why it matters: The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Operational relevance: High — The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Source: ReliefWeb · grade AOpen source
12 August 2026
- SudanHumanitarian Security4/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
World: Attacks on humanitarian workers surge under new armed conflict tactics, leaving children without life‑saving aid
Why it matters: The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Operational relevance: High — The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Source: ReliefWeb · grade AOpen source
10 August 2026
- SudanBorder & Territorial Security3/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Refugees fleeing Sudan face months without shelter, water or healthcare in eastern Chad
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: ReliefWeb · grade AOpen source
3 August 2026
- SudanConflict & Political Violence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Drone strikes threaten civilians and aid operations in Sudan
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: UN News Africa · grade FOpen source
- SudanMilitary & Defence5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudan army drone strike on court session kills 35, rights group says
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Moderate — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: BBC News Africa · grade BOpen source
24 July 2026
- SudanRegional / Strategic Security5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
In El Obeid, Sudanese women face drones by day, rape by night, to reach water
Why it matters: The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Operational relevance: Low — The record requires contextual assessment of its effect on the operating environment.
Source: UN News Africa · grade FOpen source
8 July 2026
- SudanKidnapping & Abduction5/5 relevanceReportedlow confidenceAnalyst review
Sudan: ‘El Obeid must not become the next crime scene’ warn UN investigators
Why it matters: The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Operational relevance: High — The reporting indicates a direct potential effect on movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
Source: UN News Africa · grade FOpen source
Other country dashboards
Sudan intelligence reports
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