Published analysis
Research & Assessments
Inland, maritime and aviation security research across all 54 African countries, covering evidence, threats, indicators, confidence, limitations and operational implications across Africa.
Featured assessments
Egypt security risks mount following Italian conviction of state agents
An Italian court has convicted three Egyptian security agents in absentia over the 2016 abduction of researcher Giulio Regeni, imposing ten-year prison sentences. We assess the ruling will increase diplomatic friction between Rome and Cairo while heightening risks for foreign scholars operating in Egypt.
Nigeria inland security: South-east graduate rescue highlights persistent transit kidnap risk
According to reporting by MyJoyOnline (Ghana), police in Nigeria have rescued a group of 20 graduates who were abducted in the south-east region. The recovery highlights persistent inland transit risks across regional transport corridors despite successful police tactical interventions.
Mozambique abduction risk: Ransom signal traced to Maputo military headquarters
Security analysts investigating the abduction of more than 15 individuals from a Mozambican hunting camp traced an incoming ransom demand directly to military headquarters in Maputo. The link between criminal kidnappers and senior military infrastructure raises immediate concerns regarding state security collusion and institutional operational integrity.
Somalia airspace and counter-insurgency: US airstrikes escalate
According to reporting by news.antiwar.com on 28 September 2026, the United States executed fresh airstrikes in Somalia under an expanded aerial campaign. We assess with moderate confidence that sustained kinetic operations maintain high operational exposure for regional aviation and ground transport corridors.
Gulf of Guinea Maritime Security Outlook
Why suppressed piracy statistics understate residual risk, how kidnap economics work offshore, and what port-side theft and fraud cost operators in practice.
Q4 2026
114 reportsMozambique abduction risk: Ransom signal traced to Maputo military headquarters
Security analysts investigating the abduction of more than 15 individuals from a Mozambican hunting camp traced an incoming ransom demand directly to military headquarters in Maputo. The link between criminal kidnappers and senior military infrastructure raises immediate concerns regarding state security collusion and institutional operational integrity.
South Africa inland security: Wedela mass shooting leaves 17 dead
A mass shooting in Wedela township southwest of Johannesburg has resulted in 17 fatalities, prompting a police operation targeting eight fleeing suspects. Mazin Intel assesses the operational risks and security implications for transport corridors across Gauteng province.
Nigeria inland security: South-east graduate rescue highlights persistent transit kidnap risk
According to reporting by MyJoyOnline (Ghana), police in Nigeria have rescued a group of 20 graduates who were abducted in the south-east region. The recovery highlights persistent inland transit risks across regional transport corridors despite successful police tactical interventions.
Nigeria inland risk: Imo State NYSC release highlights operational secrecy
Following the rescue of abducted National Youth Service Corps members in Imo State, official explanations regarding information blackouts highlight persistent intelligence challenges in South-east Nigeria. We analyse how joint security responses and controlled communications shape transport and operational exposure for personnel across the region.
Nigeria aviation risk: NAF helicopter forced landing in Benue State
According to initial intelligence reporting, a Nigerian Air Force helicopter carried out a precautionary landing on agricultural land in Benue State following an anti-kidnapping mission. The incident highlights operational demands on military aviation assets supporting ground forces against armed gangs across North Central Nigeria.
Nigeria Oyo forest security: Army converts national park into training base
According to reporting by Punch (Nigeria), the Nigerian Army has established a training centre inside Old Oyo National Park to deny armed groups an operational hideout. The move follows a recent abduction in Oriire, illustrating how criminal syndicates exploit protected forest reserves across south-western Nigeria.
Nigeria inland security: Benue troop intervention highlights ongoing abduction risks
Troops operating under Operation Whirl Stroke rescued six kidnapped individuals near Gbise in Benue State, according to regional security monitoring. The successful intervention highlights persistent non-state violence and abduction risks along agricultural corridors in the Middle Belt.
South Africa township security: Wedela mass shooting exposes severe violent crime risk
South African police are searching for eight gunmen following a tavern shooting in Wedela, West Rand District, leaving 17 dead and 15 wounded. The incident highlights severe violent crime dynamics across Gauteng province, creating immediate operational risks for local duty of care.
Nigeria security: Armed forces conduct nationwide anti-kidnap and oil theft sweeps
Nigerian military operations across multiple operational theatres have led to the liberation of 125 abducted individuals and the arrest of over 50 suspected insurgents and facilitators. Interventions in the Niger Delta region also halted illegal refining activities and secured over 260,000 litres of illicit crude oil.
South Africa urban security: Bar mass shootings highlight elevated violent crime risks
Mass shootings at liquor establishments in Johannesburg and Cape Town left 27 people dead, marking a grave surge in urban security threats. The incidents expose acute vulnerabilities across commercial nodes, forcing rapid police posture shifts.
Nigeria freight corridors face illicit trade risks as courier union demands state oversight
According to Vanguard (Nigeria) on 27 September 2026, the Courier and Logistics Staff Association of Nigeria has called for immediate sector regulation. The union warns that weak oversight allows criminal groups to exploit parcel networks for gun-running, narcotics, and kidnapping.
South Africa urban security: Dual mass shootings signal armed gang escalation
According to initial reports, coordinated mass shootings in South Africa's two largest cities left at least 27 people dead on 27 September 2026. We assess with moderate confidence that this violent surge will trigger localised police operations while increasing security exposure for transport networks in high-density urban areas.
Nigeria inland security: HURIWA flags rising attacks across Plateau, Zamfara and Niger
According to reporting by Vanguard (Nigeria), HURIWA has warned of escalating killings, armed attacks and mass abductions in Plateau, Zamfara and Niger states. Mazin Intel assesses these non-state security threats pose severe operational risks to regional transport corridors and local communities.
South Africa illicit mining violence: Armed gang rivalries kill 27
According to reporting by Premium Times (Nigeria), separate mass shootings in South Africa have claimed at least 27 lives amid escalating gang warfare over illicit gold mining routes. We assess with moderate confidence that turf wars between rival syndicates will continue to drive localized violence across vulnerable mining communities.
South Africa gun violence: spate of mass shootings claims 38 lives
According to reporting by ijpr.org, a series of mass shootings across South Africa killed 38 people over a single week in September 2026. This fatal escalation highlights severe firearms proliferation and systemic local vulnerabilities that pose immediate risks to civilian safety and operational continuity.
South Africa gun violence: Spate of mass shootings kills 38 in seven days
According to monitoring by krvs.org, South Africa experienced a violent week ending 27 September 2026 in which 38 individuals died across multiple mass shootings. The rapid accumulation of fatalities highlights severe inland security vulnerabilities and elevated firearm lethality across urban centres.
Nigeria: Benue air support marks tactical shift against inland kidnapping syndicates
Nigerian military aviation assets executed target strikes against a criminal hideout in Benue State's Ogbadigbo Local Government Area. The joint air-ground operation highlights growing reliance on military force to disrupt rural kidnapping networks across north-central corridors.
Nigeria highway kidnap risks prompt renewed calls to scrap NYSC graduate scheme
Activist Mahdi Shehu has publicly demanded the immediate abolition of Nigeria's National Youth Service Corps scheme following repeated highway abductions of prospective corps members. Speaking on national television, Shehu highlighted high-risk transit routes towards orientation camps in Akwa Ibom and Abuja.
South Africa gun violence: 38 fatalities reported in weekly mass shooting spike
South Africa recorded 38 fatalities in a spate of mass shootings over a single week in late September 2026. Intelligence monitored by Mazin Intel indicates this sharp rise in lethal violence increases operational risk for transport corridors, commercial operations, and local aid delivery.
Nigeria: Borno school abductions highlight ongoing security failure in north-east
Nigeria's Borno State faces renewed public pressure as religious leaders demand the release of 78 schoolchildren held captive for over 100 days. The persistent abduction risk demonstrates unresolved security vulnerabilities across north-eastern transit corridors.
Nigeria Kwara-Kogi corridor: Kidnapping highlights tri-state border vulnerabilities
An armed interception along the Kwara-Kogi border resulting in the abduction of six travellers highlights highway insecurity in North-Central Nigeria. Joint rescue operations across Kwara, Kogi and Ekiti reflect regional security coordination attempts.
South Africa urban firearm violence: Escalating mass shooting casualties surge in September 2026
According to reporting by News24 (South Africa), five days of mass shootings in September 2026 caused 44 deaths, making it the deadliest month for high-casualty attacks this year. We assess with moderate confidence that this surge signals acute volatility in local security conditions across affected urban areas.
Ghana urban risk: Teshie murder case exposes trader vulnerability
According to MyJoyOnline (Ghana), law enforcement officers in Teshie have detained three individuals following the abduction and murder of a local mobile phone merchant. The case highlights localized violent crime risks affecting informal commercial traders across urban districts in Greater Accra.
Ghana urban risk: Arrests follow Accra kidnapping and murder
Ghana Police Service officers arrested three suspects following the kidnapping, murder, and burning of 33-year-old electronics dealer Nana Yaw Kyere in Accra. The incident highlights heightened violent crime threats targeting commercial operators in urban hubs across the capital.
Ghana urban crime: Kwame Nkrumah Circle murder exposes violent robbery risk
Police in Ghana arrested three suspects following the reported kidnapping and murder of Accra phone trader Nana Yaw Kyere. The incident highlights violent crime risks for informal vendors around major commercial hubs in the capital.
Nigeria counter-insurgency: Military shifts posture to northern offensives
According to reporting by Vanguard (Nigeria), the Nigerian Armed Forces are transitioning towards sustained offensive operations against armed bandits and insurgent groups in the North-East and North-West. This posture shift reflects a legislative push for intelligence-led counter-insurgency across northern violence hotspots.
Nigeria forest kidnappings: Mass grave discoveries signal rising rural crime risks
According to BBC News Africa, Nigerian police have recovered the remains of at least 28 suspected kidnapping victims from forest areas. The discovery highlights the persistent threat posed by armed criminal gangs operating out of remote woodland sanctuaries across the country.
Nigeria inland security: Forest camp discovery highlights armed criminal node risks
According to reporting by MyJoyOnline (Ghana), security forces have discovered the remains of at least 28 suspected kidnap victims within remote forest hideouts in Nigeria. The recovery of human skulls and bones highlights the persistent control exercised by organized criminal networks over ungoverned rural spaces.
Nigeria inland security: Discovery of forest mass graves signals extreme kidnapping risk
Security forces in Nigeria uncovered the remains of dozens of kidnapping victims within remote forest enclaves during late September 2026. The discovery highlights extreme inland security risks for rural transport corridors and communities vulnerable to armed criminal syndicates operating across unpoliced hideouts.
Somalia airspace and counter-insurgency: US airstrikes escalate
According to reporting by news.antiwar.com on 28 September 2026, the United States executed fresh airstrikes in Somalia under an expanded aerial campaign. We assess with moderate confidence that sustained kinetic operations maintain high operational exposure for regional aviation and ground transport corridors.
Egypt security risks mount following Italian conviction of state agents
An Italian court has convicted three Egyptian security agents in absentia over the 2016 abduction of researcher Giulio Regeni, imposing ten-year prison sentences. We assess the ruling will increase diplomatic friction between Rome and Cairo while heightening risks for foreign scholars operating in Egypt.
Egypt state security risk: Conviction of three officials in Regeni case
According to reporting by BBC News Africa, a court convicted three Egyptian security officials over the kidnapping of Italian researcher Giulio Regeni. Regeni went missing during a 2016 academic trip to Egypt before his tortured body was recovered days later.
Nigeria inland security: Mass kidnappings reported in Niger and Zamfara
Armed groups abducted more than 80 people across Niger and Zamfara states in northern Nigeria while police discovered human remains at suspected gang camps. The twin events point to deteriorating control along key rural agricultural belts and logistics corridors.
Nigeria: Borno state kidnap risk strains rural community security
Recent reporting highlights how persistent kidnappings in Borno State erode household savings and disrupt local education. Mazin Intel assesses that these abductions undermine grassroots economic stability while creating severe operational friction for humanitarian agencies operating across north-eastern Nigeria.
Nigeria inland security: Zamfara transit attack targets cross-border pilgrimage convoy
Military forces under Operation FANSAN YAMMA intercepted an attempted mass abduction targeting 49 travellers returning through Zamfara State from a religious gathering in Senegal. The successful rescue highlights persistent criminal threats along regional transport routes.
Nigeria: Zamfara highway ambush on trans-Sahelian pilgrims highlights transit risks
Troops from Operation Fansan Yamma rescued 49 Kano State travellers in Zamfara State following an attempted kidnapping triggered by a vehicle mechanical failure. The group was returning from a Maulud programme in Senegal when suspected armed bandits targeted their stranded vehicle along the transit corridor.
Nigeria inland security: Military interdicts highway kidnapping in Zamfara
According to reporting by Premium Times (Nigeria), military forces intercepted an attempted mass abduction of 41 transit passengers in Zamfara State on 29 September 2026. The rescued group comprised 24 men, 10 women and seven children, with defence officials confirming all individuals were recovered unharmed.
Egypt diplomatic strain: Rome sentences officials over 2016 researcher abduction
According to reporting by Africanews, a court in Rome sentenced three Egyptian security officials to ten years in prison over the 2016 abduction of an Italian researcher. This judicial outcome marks a major friction point in bilateral relations between Rome and Cairo, highlighting risks for foreign personnel in Egypt.
Nigeria: Zamfara cross-border highway abduction exposes regional transit risks
Nigerian military forces rescued 41 cross-border passengers abducted by armed bandits in Tsafe Local Government Area of Zamfara State following a commercial vehicle breakdown. The travellers were en route from Senegal to Kano when criminal groups targeted their disabled transport along a key regional corridor.
Nigeria inland security: Donald Duke calls for multi-tier police reform
According to reporting by Vanguard (Nigeria), Peoples Redemption Party presidential candidate Donald Duke has called for establishing state and local police forces to counter widespread violent crime. We assess that this push reflects growing political consensus around decentralising security governance across federal, state and municipal tiers.
Sudan South Kordofan corridor: Aid convoy airstrike elevates humanitarian transit risks
An aerial attack targeting two clearly marked World Food Programme trucks in South Kordofan killed a commercial driver over the weekend. Mazin Intel assesses this strike highlights the worsening operational environment for relief corridors operating across southern Sudan.
Sudan South Kordofan corridor: WFP aid convoy bombing elevates overland transport risks
According to reporting by Radio Dabanga on 6 October 2026, an aerial bombing targeted a World Food Programme convoy in South Kordofan, drawing widespread international condemnation. The incident highlights severe operational hazards across Sudan's inland transport corridors, where humanitarian logistics face persistent kinetic threats and unreliable safety guarantees.
Sudan: Drone strikes on Ed Damazin threaten Blue Nile security corridor
Drone strikes in Ed Damazin, Blue Nile State, killed four women and damaged civilian sites including a mosque and technical college. The aerial attack signals expanding security hazards for urban populations and humanitarian operations across south-eastern Sudan.
Nigeria South-East highway kidnapping risk highlighted by NYSC corps members release
Reporting by Premium Times confirms the release of prospective National Youth Service Corps members abducted along the Owerri-Onitsha Road in Imo State after one week in captivity. The incident highlights persistent violent interdiction risks facing interstate travel across South-East Nigeria.
Nigeria: Old Oyo National Park military takeover signals SW rural security shift
According to reporting by Vanguard (Nigeria), the Nigerian Army has taken control of Old Oyo National Park to establish a training ground following recent mass abductions in Oriire Local Government Area. We assess this deployment reflects a militarisation of forest reserves in south-western Nigeria to counter rural kidnapping networks.
Nigeria: Imo State NYSC abduction highlights security risks along Owerri transit route
According to reporting by Punch (Nigeria), police forces in Imo State rescued 20 prospective National Youth Service Corps members abducted in Owerri West local government area. The incident highlights persistent transit security risks along southern Nigerian transport routes where non-state armed groups and criminal gangs target road travel.
Nigeria inland security: Trade Union Congress warns of extended conflict risks
The Trade Union Congress of Nigeria has publicly declared that the country remains in a de facto state of war after more than a decade of persistent insecurity. Organized labour called on federal authorities to redouble anti-kidnapping campaigns as criminal abduction enterprises continue to expand across inland corridors.
Nigeria inland security: NAF strikes Benue kidnappers
According to Daily Post (Nigeria), the Nigerian Air Force provided close air support on 7 October 2026 during ground missions against kidnappers in Benue. We assess with moderate confidence that air-ground operations near the Enugu-Benue boundary indicate growing militarisation along key transport corridors.
Nigeria transit risk: 20 graduates rescued after mass highway kidnapping
According to reporting by BBC News Africa, Nigerian security services have rescued a group of 20 graduates abducted earlier this month during transit for a community service programme. The incident highlights persisting security exposure along overland transport routes across Nigeria for organised group movements.
Egypt consular security: US visa curbs target Cairo over child abduction record
According to reporting by Tuko (Kenya), the United States has enacted visa restrictions against officials in 14 countries over unresolved parental child abduction cases. Egypt represents the sole African state included in the punitive list due to persistent non-compliance.
Cameroon-Chad trade corridor: Infrastructure decay and militancy choke regional routes
According to reporting by the Institute for Security Studies, the economic route linking Cameroon, Chad, and Nigeria is under severe strain from armed attacks and failing roads. Freight operations face heightened threat levels alongside rising transport costs across the regional corridor.
Nigeria inland risk: Death sentences in Edo target cultism and kidnapping networks
According to reporting by Vanguard (Nigeria), a specialised Edo State High Court in Benin City sentenced three men and one woman to death by hanging on 29 September 2026. The convictions for kidnapping and cult membership highlight severe judicial penalties aimed at deterring violent criminal syndicates across southern inland corridors.
Nigeria: Edo State court issues death sentences for kidnapping
According to reporting by Daily Post (Nigeria), a Special Criminal Court in Benin City, Edo State, has sentenced four individuals to death by hanging for kidnapping and secret cult involvement. The capital ruling highlights state judicial enforcement targeting violent criminality in southern Nigeria.
Nigeria inland security: Senate calls for federal action on abductions
According to reporting by Punch (Nigeria), the Nigerian Senate urged federal authorities on 29 September 2026 to rescue abduction victims and protect targeted communities. The motion highlights escalating legislative concern over persistent rural insecurity.
Guinea: Geopolitical Risk Assessment, October 2026
A junta-led transition with political demonstrations in Conakry and an active mining sector.
Ghana: Geopolitical Risk Assessment, October 2026
A traditionally stable democracy whose northern border regions face growing pressure from Sahel insecurity and local chieftaincy conflicts.
Egypt: Geopolitical Risk Assessment, October 2026
A broadly stable state with heavy security presence; the North Sinai insurgency is largely contained, while Red Sea shipping disruption and Sudan's war shape the external picture.
Senegal: Geopolitical Risk Assessment, October 2026
Historically one of the region's most stable democracies; political tension flares periodically in Dakar and Casamance remains largely quiet.
Algeria: Geopolitical Risk Assessment, October 2026
A strong internal security apparatus keeps the northern cities stable, while the long southern borders with Mali, Niger and Libya remain exposed to armed groups and smuggling.
Nigeria: Geopolitical Risk Assessment, October 2026
The continent's largest country faces several threats at once: Boko Haram and ISWAP in the north-east, banditry and mass kidnapping in the north-west, separatist violence in the south-east and crime in the Gulf of Guinea.
Algeria Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of political controls, hydrocarbon-linked fiscal pressure and exposure along the Mali and Libya borders, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Angola Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of oil-revenue dependence, cost-of-living pressure and uneven public-service capacity, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Benin Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of armed-group pressure in northern border departments and exposure around the W-Arly-Pendjari complex, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Botswana Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of institutional continuity, mineral-sector concentration and water-security constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Burkina Faso Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of armed-group violence, territorial fragmentation and severe constraints on road access outside principal urban centres, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Burundi Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of eastern DRC spillover, political controls and pressure on cross-border movement and supply chains, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Cabo Verde Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of low conflict exposure, maritime dependence and sensitivity to imported fuel, food and transport disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Cameroon Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of the Anglophone conflict, Lake Chad Basin militancy and disruption on peripheral transport corridors, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Central African Republic Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of armed-group activity, limited state reach outside Bangui and dependence on negotiated overland access, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Chad Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of Sudan conflict spillover, refugee pressure, Sahel militancy and political succession risk, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Comoros Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of institutional fragility, import dependence and exposure to cyclone and maritime disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Congo (Brazzaville) Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of political continuity, oil-linked fiscal exposure and constrained public-service delivery, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Congo (DRC) Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of armed conflict in the east, mass displacement, disease exposure and contested regional diplomacy, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Côte d'Ivoire Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of northern-border militant spillover, electoral sensitivity and concentration of commercial activity around Abidjan, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Djibouti Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of Red Sea disruption, strategic-base competition and dependence on Ethiopia-linked trade corridors, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Egypt Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of economic adjustment, regional spillover from Sudan and Libya, and pressure around strategic transport infrastructure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Equatorial Guinea Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of succession uncertainty, hydrocarbon dependence and restricted political space, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Eritrea Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of regional military tension, closed governance and limited independent visibility into domestic conditions, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Eswatini Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of political controls, periodic protest risk and economic dependence on South African corridors, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Ethiopia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of armed violence in multiple regions, centre–periphery political tension and Sudan–Eritrea spillover, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Gabon Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of post-transition institutional consolidation, extractive-sector dependence and governance reform expectations, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Gambia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of institutional consolidation, transitional-justice pressures and dependence on tourism and cross-border trade, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Ghana Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of northern-border militant infiltration risk, fiscal pressure and localised communal tensions, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Guinea Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of transition politics, uncertainty around constitutional timelines and mining-corridor disruption risk, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Guinea-Bissau Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of institutional fragility, contested political authority and exposure to illicit trafficking networks, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Kenya Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of protest volatility, al-Shabaab cross-border intent, flood exposure and transport-corridor disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Lesotho Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of political fragility, economic dependence on South Africa and climate pressure on rural livelihoods, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Liberia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of economic fragility, infrastructure constraints and consolidation of post-election governance, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Libya Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of fragmented authority, militia competition, migration-route exposure and intermittent infrastructure shutdowns, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Madagascar Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of cyclone and drought exposure, weak infrastructure and recurrent political and social tension, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Malawi Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of foreign-exchange constraints, food-security pressure and climate-related disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Mali Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of JNIM and Islamic State activity, contested state reach and acute road, aviation and supply-chain exposure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Mauritania Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of Sahel spillover, migration-route pressure and security exposure along remote borders, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Mauritius Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of low conflict risk, maritime and cyber exposure, and sensitivity to external trade disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Morocco Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of Western Sahara diplomacy, cost-of-living pressures and concentration of logistics through strategic ports, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Mozambique Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of Cabo Delgado insurgency, LNG-related security requirements and cyclone exposure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Namibia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of institutional continuity, extractive-sector dependence and drought-related water constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Niger Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of junta consolidation, militant pressure and severe constraints on border and overland operations, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Nigeria Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, communal violence and infrastructure disruption across distinct theatres, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Rwanda Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of eastern DRC tensions, diplomatic exposure and heightened scrutiny of cross-border activity, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
São Tomé & Príncipe Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of small-state capacity constraints, import dependence and maritime-domain exposure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Senegal Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of fiscal adjustment, protest sensitivity and security spillover risk in the wider western Sahel, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Seychelles Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of maritime security, cyber exposure and high dependence on tourism and imported goods, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Sierra Leone Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of economic pressure, infrastructure constraints and episodic political unrest, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Somalia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of al-Shabaab attack capability, federal–member state friction, clan conflict and severe humanitarian access constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
South Africa Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of coalition fragility, violent crime, service-delivery unrest and logistics and power-system constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
South Sudan Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of fragile political arrangements, localised violence, Sudan spillover, flooding and acute humanitarian pressure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Sudan Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of the SAF–RSF war, mass displacement, famine risk and fragmentation of access and supply routes, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Tanzania Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of political controls, localised protest risk and climate-related transport disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Togo Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of militant activity in the Savanes region, political pressure and northern access constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Tunisia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of economic fragility, political centralisation and migration-linked pressure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Uganda Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of election-cycle tension, ADF-linked regional exposure and involvement in eastern DRC security dynamics, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Zambia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of debt-restructuring implementation, mining dependence, electricity constraints and drought exposure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Zimbabwe Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of currency instability, political succession uncertainty and power and logistics constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Q3 2026
20 reportsSudan Country Risk Brief
Operating-level brief on Sudan's conflict geography, access architecture and duty-of-care exposure for organisations working in or around the country.
Kenya Political Risk Assessment
Assessment of Kenya's political trajectory, protest dynamics, governance environment and the practical consequences for investors, NGOs and regional headquarters.
Horn of Africa Regional Risk Outlook
Twelve-month regional outlook covering inter-state dynamics, insurgency, Red Sea maritime security, climate stress and their combined effect on operations across the Horn.
East Africa Executive Travel Risk Brief
Practical travel risk guidance for executives and delegations across East Africa, covering pre-travel approval, ground movement, accommodation, medical planning and crisis response.
Ethiopia Country Risk Report
Regional-state read of Ethiopia's security environment, Amhara and Oromia insurgency, Tigray's unsettled transition, and what each means for staff movement and programme continuity.
Mozambique Country Risk Report
Cabo Delgado insurgency, post-election unrest and the security economics of the northern gas corridor, written for organisations with people and assets in-country.
Libya Country Risk Report
Militia balance in Tripoli, the eastern administration's consolidation and hydrocarbon use, an operating picture for organisations working across a divided state.
South Africa Country Risk Report
Crime-driven risk, service delivery unrest, extortion of construction and logistics, and infrastructure fragility, practical controls for corporate and NGO operations.
Mali Country Risk Report
JNIM's encirclement strategy, fuel and supply blockades, and the narrowing space for principled humanitarian operations in a transition-governed state.
Egypt Country Risk Report
A stable-but-strained environment: macroeconomic pressure, Sinai and border dynamics, Red Sea shipping effects and the regulatory conditions that shape NGO and corporate operations.
Sahel Regional Risk Outlook
One insurgent economy across five states: blockade tactics, the withdrawal of Western partners, and the measurable push towards Benin, Togo, Ghana and northern Côte d'Ivoire.
Gulf of Guinea Maritime Security Outlook
Why suppressed piracy statistics understate residual risk, how kidnap economics work offshore, and what port-side theft and fraud cost operators in practice.
Lake Chad Basin Regional Briefing
ISWAP and Boko Haram factional dynamics, the fragility of the multinational response, and access realities for humanitarian operations across four states.
Southern Africa Regional Risk Outlook
Election cycles, mining-sector politics, corridor logistics and the electricity and water constraints that increasingly define operational continuity across the region.
West Africa Executive Travel Brief
City-by-city travel guidance for Lagos, Abuja, Accra, Dakar and Abidjan, arrival risk, transport standards, accommodation criteria and the northern-belt lines that should not be crossed.
Southern Africa Executive Travel Brief
Practical travel controls for Johannesburg, Cape Town, Lusaka, Harare, Gaborone and Maputo, hijacking avoidance, route discipline, load-shedding effects and safe-arrival protocol.
North Africa Executive Travel Brief
Low-threat capitals with high-consequence rules: documentation, photography and drone restrictions, desert and border zones, and where the risk tier changes abruptly.
Cyber Threat Bulletin, Africa Q3
Quarterly read on ransomware pressure against African enterprises and public bodies, business email compromise economics, mobile money fraud and politically motivated intrusion.
Ransomware & Business Email Compromise in African Financial Services
How payment diversion and extortion actually work against banks, microfinance institutions, fintechs and mobile money operators, with the control set that measurably reduces loss.
NGO Cyber Duty of Care Brief
Protecting staff, beneficiaries and programme data in surveillance-exposed and conflict-affected environments, practical measures for organisations without a security engineering team.
Q2 2026
6 reportsSomalia Security Risk Assessment
In-depth review of the threat environment across Federal Somalia and Puntland, including clan dynamics, Al-Shabaab activity and coastal security.
East Africa Threat Briefing
Cross-border threat picture spanning Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Tanzania, with sectoral impact assessment.
Horn of Africa Intelligence Update
Political, security and humanitarian outlook covering Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti.
Nigeria Country Risk Report
Comprehensive assessment of security, political and operational risk for organisations operating across Nigeria.
Kenya Executive Travel Briefing
Nairobi and Mombasa travel security guidance including hotel, route and ground-support protocols.
Cyber Threat Bulletin, Africa Q2
Quarterly cyber threat picture across African markets with sector-specific mitigation guidance.
Q1 2026
2 reportsDRC Country Risk Report
Eastern DRC conflict dynamics and their impact on extractive and humanitarian operations.
Sahel Executive Travel Briefing
Executive travel guidance for Bamako, Niamey and Ouagadougou with journey management protocols.
Undated
2 reportsEast Africa Security & Humanitarian Operational Outlook
An evidence-led assessment of political violence, displacement pressure and continuity risks affecting operations across East Africa.
Horn of Africa Security & Humanitarian Operational Outlook
A sourced assessment of conflict trajectories, humanitarian access, Somalia's security transition and Red Sea operational exposure.