LOWAn attack is highly unlikely.Reviewed October 2026

Zambia: Geopolitical Risk Assessment

A stable democracy facing debt strain and drought-driven power cuts.

Analyst assessment from public sources, written for practitioners. Threat levels describe the general environment for a civilian organisation; they are not a substitute for an organisation's own assessment of its own exposure.

Operating environment

Staff in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.

Threats

Crime in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.
Load-shedding from low hydropower output.
Political tension around elections.

Vulnerabilities

Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Zambia's main urban centres.
Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.

Operational considerations

Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
Basic briefings.
Backup power.

Country context

Structured operating picture

Open country dashboard →

Security environment

Crime in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.
Load-shedding from low hydropower output.
Political tension around elections.

Political environment

Staff in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.

Armed actors

Crime in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.
Load-shedding from low hydropower output.
Political tension around elections.

Conflict dynamics

Staff in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.

Humanitarian conditions

Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Crime and personal security

Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Zambia's main urban centres.
Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.

Maritime exposure

No direct maritime exposure; second-order supply and corridor effects remain relevant.

Infrastructure and access

Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.

Regional exposure

Staff in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.

Key drivers

See operating environment above.

Indicators

Review changes in threat, exposure and access.

Limitations

Open-source coverage varies and cannot establish every local condition.

If it happens

Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.

Rated risks

Ref	Risk	L	I	Rating	Mitigation
ZM-01	Crime	2	2	LOW	Basic briefings.
ZM-02	Power-cut disruption	4	2	MODERATE	Backup power.

Residual risk

LOW.

Reliability & Confidence

Reliability: Usually reliable public sources; individual incident reports may be single-source. · Confidence: High, stable environment.

Sources

· ACLED conflict event data
· UN OCHA situation reports and ReliefWeb country pages
· UN Security Council and panel-of-experts reporting
· UK FCDO and US State Department travel advice
· National and regional media monitoring