Key judgement
A disputed territory under Moroccan administration where the 1991 ceasefire broke down in 2020; low-level exchanges continue along the berm.
Threat context
- Sporadic exchanges of fire and drone strikes near the berm between Moroccan forces and the Polisario Front.
- Landmines and unexploded ordnance near the berm.
- Restrictions on journalists, researchers and activists.
Vulnerabilities
- Movement planned on habit rather than a current route assessment, with no written abort criteria for travel outside Western Sahara's main urban centres.
- Premises, accommodation and meeting venues chosen for convenience, with limited stand-off, access control or a second exit.
- Single communications channel and check-in intervals long enough that a missing team would go unnoticed for hours.
- Local partners and drivers engaged without a shared security standard or a briefing on current threat indicators.
Exposure
- Travel to Laayoune and Dakhla, largely permissive.
- Any movement near the berm or into the buffer strip.
Operational implications
- Injury, detention or loss of life to staff, with lasting duty-of-care, family-liaison and legal obligations.
- Suspension of programmes or operations and loss of access that can take months to rebuild.
- Reputational and relationship damage with authorities, communities and partners if an incident is handled poorly.
Rated risks
- Landmine or ordnance incident, likelihood 2/5, impact 5/5. Stay on known roads; avoid the berm.
- Expulsion or detention linked to political activity, likelihood 3/5, impact 3/5. Brief staff on sensitivities.
- Exposure to cross-berm fire, likelihood 2/5, impact 5/5. Treat the berm area as no-go.
Mitigation
- Route and movement approval tied to a current written assessment, with defined no-go areas and abort criteria.
- Hibernation, relocation and evacuation plans tested at least once a year, with trigger points agreed in advance.
- Redundant communications (mobile, satellite, radio where licensed) and short, monitored check-in schedules.
- Pre-deployment briefings that cover the current threat picture, local law and cultural sensitivities.
- Stay on known roads; avoid the berm.
- Brief staff on sensitivities.
- Treat the berm area as no-go.
Residual risk
SUBSTANTIAL near the berm; lower in the main towns.
Confidence and sources
Confidence: Moderate, consistent open-source reporting, limited independent verification outside main cities.. Usually reliable public sources; individual incident reports may be single-source.
- ACLED conflict event data
- UN OCHA situation reports and ReliefWeb country pages
- UN Security Council and panel-of-experts reporting
- UK FCDO and US State Department travel advice
- National and regional media monitoring
Analyst assessment from public sources, Reviewed October 2026. Not a substitute for an organisation's own assessment.