Africa / Middle East · Chokepoint assessment
Bab el-Mandeb
The narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti/Eritrea remains the single most dangerous commercial passage in the region. Houthi forces have used anti-ship missiles, drones, uncrewed surface vessels and a helicopter-borne boarding against merchant ships since late 2023.
Pre-2023 roughly a tenth of seaborne trade; transits fell by more than half after Houthi attacks began in November 2023.
Main threats
- Anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles
- One-way attack drones and explosive boats
- Boarding and seizure (Galaxy Leader precedent)
- GNSS interference and AIS spoofing
What this means for shipping
- Many operators still route via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days
- War-risk premiums remain elevated for vessels with Israeli, US or UK links
- Humanitarian cargo to Yemen, Sudan and Eritrea faces delay and cost
What to watch
- Houthi statements on targeting criteria
- Gaza ceasefire status
- UKMTO/JMIC advisory changes
- Suez Canal transit counts
Recent major incidents nearby
Asana — Hijack
17 Jul 2026 · Gulf of Aden
Tanzania-flagged tanker bound for Bosaso hijacked about 65 NM southwest of Mukalla; the fourth vessel held off northern Somalia at the time of reporting. EU NAVFOR Atalanta
Two merchant vessels (names not released) — Piracy / boarding
14 Jun 2026 · Gulf of Aden
Armed skiffs attacked a containership and a tanker in separate incidents, including an attempted boarding and an RPG launch. No casualties were immediately reported. gCaptain, citing UKMTO
Eureka — Hijack
2 May 2026 · Gulf of Aden
Togo-flagged tanker bound for Bosaso hijacked at anchor off Qana Port, Shabwa, Yemen, and sailed to the northern Somali coast. EU NAVFOR Atalanta
Minervagracht — Missile / drone
29 Sept 2025 · Gulf of Aden
Dutch cargo ship hit and set on fire; one crew member later died. EU NAVFOR Aspides
Eternity C — Sinking
7 Jul 2025 · Southern Red Sea
Bulk carrier sunk; several crew killed and others reported taken by Houthi forces. Reuters
Magic Seas — Sinking
6 Jul 2025 · Southern Red Sea
Bulk carrier sunk by Houthi attack, ending a months-long lull. UKMTO
Sounion — Missile / drone
21 Aug 2024 · Southern Red Sea
Loaded tanker attacked and set alight, creating a major oil-spill risk. EU NAVFOR Aspides
Tutor — Sinking
12 Jun 2024 · Southern Red Sea
Bulk carrier struck by an explosive boat; one crew member killed; ship later sank. UKMTO
True Confidence — Missile / drone
6 Mar 2024 · Gulf of Aden off Aden
Three crew killed — the first deaths from the Houthi campaign. UKMTO
Rubymar — Sinking
2 Mar 2024 · Bab el-Mandeb
Fertiliser carrier sank after a February missile strike — the first ship lost in the campaign. Reuters
Marlin Luanda — Missile / drone
26 Jan 2024 · Gulf of Aden
Tanker set on fire by a Houthi anti-ship missile. UKMTO
Galaxy Leader — Hijack
19 Nov 2023 · Southern Red Sea
Houthi forces seized the car carrier by helicopter; crew held until January 2025. Reuters
Ports on this route
Port Sudan, Sudan Severe
Sudan's main humanitarian gateway since the war began; drone strikes hit the city in May 2025.
Suakin, Sudan Substantial
Livestock and passenger port south of Port Sudan.
Massawa, Eritrea Substantial
Limited public reporting; access and transparency are poor.
Assab, Eritrea Substantial
Close to the strait; subject of Ethiopian sea-access rhetoric.
Djibouti / Doraleh, Djibouti Substantial
Ethiopia's main outlet and host to several foreign naval bases.
Safaga, Egypt Moderate
Egyptian Red Sea bulk and passenger port.
Zeila, Somaliland Substantial
Small port near the Djibouti border; smuggling routes.
Tadjourah, Djibouti Moderate
Potash and Ethiopian cargo terminal.
Obock, Djibouti Substantial
Departure point for migrant boats to Yemen.
Jeddah Islamic Port, Saudi Arabia Substantial
Red Sea's largest port; Houthi missiles have targeted Saudi coast in the past.
King Abdullah Port, Saudi Arabia Moderate
Modern terminal north of Jeddah.
Yanbu, Saudi Arabia Substantial
Oil export terminal; East–West pipeline outlet avoiding Hormuz.
Eilat, Israel Severe
Commercial activity collapsed after Houthi threats; the port authority reported insolvency in 2025.
Hodeidah, Yemen Critical
Houthi-controlled; struck repeatedly by Israeli and US aircraft. Key for Yemen's food imports.
Ras Isa, Yemen Critical
Houthi fuel terminal; heavy casualties in April 2025 US strike.
Sources
Threat level is an Mazin Intel analytical judgement from public sources, not a live feed or official rating.