Africa · Chokepoint assessment
Cape of Good Hope route
The main alternative to Suez since the Red Sea attacks began. The threat is weather, port congestion and crime ashore rather than attacks at sea.
Europe–Asia traffic diverted from the Red Sea, plus Cape Town, Durban and Port Elizabeth calls.
Main threats
- Severe weather and heavy seas
- Port congestion and delays
- Cargo theft and crime at South African ports
- Bunker and supply shortages
What this means for shipping
- Plan 10–14 extra days on Europe–Asia voyages
- Check bunkering and crew-change options in advance
What to watch
- Transnet port performance
- Return of traffic to Suez
Ports on this route
Durban, South Africa Substantial
Africa's busiest container port; congestion and cargo theft, 2021 unrest.
Richards Bay, South Africa Moderate
Coal and bulk export port.
Ngqura / Port Elizabeth, South Africa Moderate
Container and bunkering anchorage on the Cape route.
Cape Town, South Africa Moderate
Key Cape-route call; strong winds cause delays.
Walvis Bay, Namibia Low
Well-run corridor port for Zambia and Botswana.
Sources
Threat level is an Mazin Intel analytical judgement from public sources, not a live feed or official rating.