Africa / Middle East · Chokepoint assessment
Gulf of Aden
Two overlapping threats: Houthi strikes reaching well east of the strait, and a revival of Somali piracy since December 2023, with dhows and fishing vessels used as mother ships.
Main approach to Bab el-Mandeb from the Indian Ocean.
Main threats
- Houthi missile and drone attacks
- Somali pirate boarding and hijack
- Weapons smuggling by dhow
What this means for shipping
- Hardening per BMP Maritime Security and embarked security teams back in use
- Vessel reporting to UKMTO and MSCHOA strongly advised
What to watch
- EU NAVFOR Atalanta piracy alerts
- Dhow hijacks off Puntland
- Monsoon cycle (piracy drops June–August)
Recent major incidents nearby
Asana — Hijack
17 Jul 2026 · Gulf of Aden
Tanzania-flagged tanker bound for Bosaso hijacked about 65 NM southwest of Mukalla; the fourth vessel held off northern Somalia at the time of reporting. EU NAVFOR Atalanta
Two merchant vessels (names not released) — Piracy / boarding
14 Jun 2026 · Gulf of Aden
Armed skiffs attacked a containership and a tanker in separate incidents, including an attempted boarding and an RPG launch. No casualties were immediately reported. gCaptain, citing UKMTO
Eureka — Hijack
2 May 2026 · Gulf of Aden
Togo-flagged tanker bound for Bosaso hijacked at anchor off Qana Port, Shabwa, Yemen, and sailed to the northern Somali coast. EU NAVFOR Atalanta
Sward — Hijack
26 Apr 2026 · Off northern Somalia
Fertiliser cargo ship bound for Mombasa hijacked close to Honour 25; held inside Somali territorial waters. EU NAVFOR Atalanta
Honour 25 — Hijack
21 Apr 2026 · Off northern Somalia
Palau-flagged tanker carrying oil products to Mogadishu hijacked; held inside Somali territorial waters. EU NAVFOR Atalanta
Minervagracht — Missile / drone
29 Sept 2025 · Gulf of Aden
Dutch cargo ship hit and set on fire; one crew member later died. EU NAVFOR Aspides
True Confidence — Missile / drone
6 Mar 2024 · Gulf of Aden off Aden
Three crew killed — the first deaths from the Houthi campaign. UKMTO
Rubymar — Sinking
2 Mar 2024 · Bab el-Mandeb
Fertiliser carrier sank after a February missile strike — the first ship lost in the campaign. Reuters
Marlin Luanda — Missile / drone
26 Jan 2024 · Gulf of Aden
Tanker set on fire by a Houthi anti-ship missile. UKMTO
Ports on this route
Berbera, Somaliland Substantial
DP World-run terminal; the Ethiopia–Somaliland MoU raised political risk.
Bosaso, Somalia (Puntland) Severe
Close to pirate networks and ISIS-Somalia in the Cal Miskaad mountains.
Las Qoray, Somalia (Puntland) Substantial
Fishing port in an area with illegal fishing and piracy history.
Aden, Yemen Severe
Government-held; unstable politics and war-risk surcharges.
Mukalla, Yemen Substantial
Hadramawt coast; past AQAP presence.
Salalah, Oman Moderate
Transhipment hub that gained from Red Sea diversions.
Sources
Threat level is an Mazin Intel analytical judgement from public sources, not a live feed or official rating.