Africa / Middle East · Chokepoint assessment
Suez Canal
Threat: ModerateTrend: StableConfidence: High
The canal itself is secure; the risk is to the approaches further south. Revenue loss adds economic pressure on Egypt.
Egypt reported canal revenue falling by more than half in 2024 as ships diverted from the Red Sea.
Main threats
- Knock-on effect of Red Sea attacks
- Grounding and blockage (Ever Given, 2021)
What this means for shipping
- Transit volumes are a useful indicator of Red Sea confidence
What to watch
- Suez Canal Authority monthly figures
- Rebate schemes for returning carriers
Ports on this route
Port Said, Egypt Moderate
Northern canal entrance; transhipment volume fell with Red Sea diversions.
Sokhna, Egypt Moderate
Southern canal approach on the Gulf of Suez.
Aqaba, Jordan Moderate
Jordan's only port; humanitarian corridor role for Gaza aid.
Sources
Threat level is an Mazin Intel analytical judgement from public sources, not a live feed or official rating.