Open-source intelligence · Africa
Africa OSINT Laboratory
A public-source research environment for collecting, verifying, corroborating and assessing Africa security information. Every result identifies its originating publisher, evidence status, source reliability and confidence so the reasoning can be traced and challenged.
Counts are computed from stored published records in the selected window, after removing duplicate reporting and future-dated entries. No record in this window has completed analyst review yet — results are machine-collected reporting.
Analyst read of this window
Computed from the records returned by your current query. Judgement, not measurement.
What the window shows
- Reporting in this window concentrates on Nigeria (144), Ghana (38), South Africa (29), Somalia (28). Concentration reflects where public sources are active, not necessarily where risk is highest.
- 53% of records are graded critical or high. Severity is an analyst grading of the reported event, not a measure of consequence for any particular organisation.
- 0% of the records on this page carry more than one corroborating source; 24 rest on a single report and should not move a rating on their own.
- No record on this page has completed analyst review, so treat the set as collected reporting rather than assessed intelligence.
What it cannot tell you
- Absence of reporting is not absence of incident — rural areas, closed states and communications blackouts produce quiet windows.
- Every record on this page carries a country attribution.
- Nothing here is live monitoring: records appear when a public source publishes and the desk collects, which can lag an event by hours or days.
- Counts describe stored source records, not people, casualties or incidents — one event can generate several records and several events can share one.
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Query the resolved network of actors, organisations and places behind these records.
348 matching records
- MODERATEL5 · Strategic & political riskSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Ethiopia launches drone strikes on Eritrean forces in Tigray
Addis Ababa and Asmara edge closer to open conflict as overnight bombardment near Adigrat hits military convoys and shatter a fragile regional order.
- What happened
- Addis Ababa and Asmara edge closer to open conflict as overnight bombardment near Adigrat hits military convoys and shatter a fragile regional order.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: drone strike.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Ethiopia · EthiopiaHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 08 OctLatest update: 08 Oct 2026, 12:21Source: The Africa ReportOriginal record - SEVEREL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Puntland operations and US airstrikes have crippled the revenue sources of ISIS in Somalia.
The ISIS group in Somalia is facing a significant decline in its financial strength after operations by Puntland and U.S. support crippled networks that were crucial for collecting and transferring the group’s funds. According to a new report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, ISIS-Somalia previously generated hundreds of thousands of dollars per month, […]
- What happened
- The ISIS group in Somalia is facing a significant decline in its financial strength after operations by Puntland and U.S. support crippled networks that were crucial for collecting and transferring the group’s funds. According to a new report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, ISIS-Somalia previously generated hundreds of thousands of dollars per month, […]
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: airstrike.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Somalia · SomaliaHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 08 OctLatest update: 08 Oct 2026, 11:35Source: Somaliland StandardOriginal record - MODERATEL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
France Halts Stun Grenade Use After Student Injured in Incident
France’s student protest movement escalated again this week — and the government has now put a controversial crowd-control weapon on hold — after a 15-year-old boy lost his hand during a confrontation with riot police, intensifying demonstrators’ claims of police brutality. There was little sign the unrest was fading. A day after protests surged nationwide, […]
- What happened
- France’s student protest movement escalated again this week — and the government has now put a controversial crowd-control weapon on hold — after a 15-year-old boy lost his hand during a confrontation with riot police, intensifying demonstrators’ claims of police brutality. There was little sign the unrest was fading. A day after protests surged nationwide, […]
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: riot.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Somalia · SomaliaHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 07 OctLatest update: 07 Oct 2026, 17:09Source: JowharOriginal record - SEVEREL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource CSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Sudan war: Four women killed in drone strikes on Ed Damazin, Blue Nile
Four women have died and civilian sites, including a mosque and a technical college, were... The post Sudan war: Four women killed in drone strikes on Ed Damazin, Blue Nile appeared first on Dabanga Radio TV Online.
- What happened
- Four women have died and civilian sites, including a mosque and a technical college, were... The post Sudan war: Four women killed in drone strikes on Ed Damazin, Blue Nile appeared first on Dabanga Radio TV Online.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: drone strike.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Sudan · SudanHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 07 OctLatest update: 07 Oct 2026, 13:38Source: Radio DabangaOriginal record - MODERATEL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
WARFARE: General Okiding calls for enhanced intelligence-led operations
Kampala, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | The Deputy Chief of Defence Forces of the Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces (UPDF), Lt Gen Sam Okiding, has called for stronger intelligence-led, coordinated and proactive approaches to military operations beyond conventional warfare. Lt Gen Okiding made the call during the opening session of the Chiefs of Defence Intelligence … The post WARFARE: General Okiding calls for enhanced intelligence-led operations appeared first on The Independent Uganda:.
- What happened
- Kampala, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | The Deputy Chief of Defence Forces of the Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces (UPDF), Lt Gen Sam Okiding, has called for stronger intelligence-led, coordinated and proactive approaches to military operations beyond conventional warfare. Lt Gen Okiding made the call during the opening session of the Chiefs of Defence Intelligence … The post WARFARE: General Okiding calls for enhanced intelligence-led operations appeared first on The Independent Uganda:.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: military operation.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Uganda · UgandaGreat LakesFirst reported: 07 OctLatest update: 07 Oct 2026, 11:00Source: The Independent (Uganda)Original record - SEVEREL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource CSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Sudan WFP aid convoy attack draws widespread condemnation
The deadly bombing of World Food Programme (WFP) trucks in South Kordofan, in which a... The post Sudan WFP aid convoy attack draws widespread condemnation appeared first on Dabanga Radio TV Online.
- What happened
- The deadly bombing of World Food Programme (WFP) trucks in South Kordofan, in which a... The post Sudan WFP aid convoy attack draws widespread condemnation appeared first on Dabanga Radio TV Online.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: bombing, aid convoy.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Sudan · SudanHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 07 OctLatest update: 06 Oct 2026, 07:27Source: Radio DabangaOriginal record - SEVEREL5 · Strategic & political riskSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Sudan: Driver killed in aerial attack on aid trucks in South Kordofan
The World Food Programme (WFP) has strongly condemned a deadly airstrike on two clearly marked aid trucks in South Kordofan, Sudan, this past weekend.
- What happened
- The World Food Programme (WFP) has strongly condemned a deadly airstrike on two clearly marked aid trucks in South Kordofan, Sudan, this past weekend.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: airstrike.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Sudan · SudanHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 07 OctLatest update: 05 Oct 2026, 12:00Source: UN News AfricaOriginal record - MODERATEL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource CSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Kayunga PLU Leaders Clash
A leadership dispute within the Patriotic League of Uganda in Kayunga has spilled into wider political tensions, with rival camps disagreeing over local coordination and support for Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
- What happened
- A leadership dispute within the Patriotic League of Uganda in Kayunga has spilled into wider political tensions, with rival camps disagreeing over local coordination and support for Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: riot.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Uganda · UgandaGreat LakesFirst reported: 07 OctLatest update: 04 Oct 2026, 05:51Source: Nile Post (Uganda)Original record - MODERATEL5 · Strategic & political riskSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Kenyan Banks Strengthen as South African Rivals Enter
Kenyan Banks Strengthen as South African Rivals Enter. Reported by riotimesonline.com and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- What happened
- Kenyan Banks Strengthen as South African Rivals Enter. Reported by riotimesonline.com and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: riot.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
KenyaEast AfricaFirst reported: 07 OctLatest update: 02 Oct 2026, 09:30Source: GDELT · riotimesonline.comOriginal record - MODERATEL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Pirates kill five Honour 25 crew before rescue by Puntland forces
Recovery of hijacked vessels Sibu 1 and Eureka leaves a single vessel under pirate control in Somalia.
- What happened
- Recovery of hijacked vessels Sibu 1 and Eureka leaves a single vessel under pirate control in Somalia.
- Why it matters
- It may directly affect safe movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: hijack.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Somalia · SomaliaHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 07 OctLatest update: 30 Sept 2026, 09:55Source: Seatrade MaritimeOriginal record - SEVEREL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource CSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
US names 14 countries in new visa restrictions, 1 African nation targeted
US visa restrictions target officials in 14 countries over parental child abduction cases; Egypt is the only African nation cited for repeated noncompliance.
- What happened
- US visa restrictions target officials in 14 countries over parental child abduction cases; Egypt is the only African nation cited for repeated noncompliance.
- Why it matters
- It may directly affect safe movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: abduct.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Egypt · EgyptNorth AfricaFirst reported: 29 SeptLatest update: 29 Sept 2026, 11:49Source: Tuko (Kenya)Original record - MODERATEL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource CSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Otema: PLU Is Not NRM Rival, It Is a Tributary That Feeds the Mother Party
Retired Lt Gen Charles Otema Awany has called for closer cooperation between the National Resistance Movement and the Patriotic League of Uganda in Acholi, describing PLU as a movement that complements rather than competes with the ruling party.
- What happened
- Retired Lt Gen Charles Otema Awany has called for closer cooperation between the National Resistance Movement and the Patriotic League of Uganda in Acholi, describing PLU as a movement that complements rather than competes with the ruling party.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: riot.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Uganda · UgandaGreat LakesFirst reported: 29 SeptLatest update: 29 Sept 2026, 10:44Source: Nile Post (Uganda)Original record - MODERATEL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Puntland secures the release of a ship hijacked by pirates within weeks.
Puntland’s maritime and ground forces (PMPF) conducted a planned operation off the coast of Dharin-baar in the Bandar-beyla district, successfully rescuing the vessel *MT HONOUR 25*, which had been held captive by pirates. During the operation, PMPF forces secured the vessel—which was sailing under the flag of Palau—and apprehended all the pirates accused of carrying […]
- What happened
- Puntland’s maritime and ground forces (PMPF) conducted a planned operation off the coast of Dharin-baar in the Bandar-beyla district, successfully rescuing the vessel *MT HONOUR 25*, which had been held captive by pirates. During the operation, PMPF forces secured the vessel—which was sailing under the flag of Palau—and apprehended all the pirates accused of carrying […]
- Why it matters
- It may directly affect safe movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: hijack.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Somalia · SomaliaHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 29 SeptLatest update: 29 Sept 2026, 08:25Source: Somaliland StandardOriginal record - SEVEREL5 · Strategic & political riskSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
US Launches More Airstrikes in Somalia as Trump Continues Record - Breaking Bombing Campaign
US Launches More Airstrikes in Somalia as Trump Continues Record - Breaking Bombing Campaign. Reported by news.antiwar.com and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- What happened
- US Launches More Airstrikes in Somalia as Trump Continues Record - Breaking Bombing Campaign. Reported by news.antiwar.com and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: bombing, airstrike.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
SomaliaHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 28 SeptLatest update: 28 Sept 2026, 18:45Source: GDELT · news.antiwar.comOriginal record - MODERATEL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource CSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Ntungamo leaders endorse Muhoozi ahead of PLU Baraza
PLU and NRM members in Ntungamo have endorsed Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba for the 2031 presidency as the Patriotic League of Uganda prepares for its October 17 Baraza in the district.
- What happened
- PLU and NRM members in Ntungamo have endorsed Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba for the 2031 presidency as the Patriotic League of Uganda prepares for its October 17 Baraza in the district.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: riot.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Uganda · UgandaGreat LakesFirst reported: 28 SeptLatest update: 28 Sept 2026, 18:00Source: Nile Post (Uganda)Original record - MODERATEL5 · Strategic & political riskSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Drone strike hits Tigray TV station as fighting escalates in northern Ethiopia
Drone strike hits Tigray TV station as fighting escalates in northern Ethiopia. Reported by albawaba.net and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- What happened
- Drone strike hits Tigray TV station as fighting escalates in northern Ethiopia. Reported by albawaba.net and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: drone strike.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
EthiopiaHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 28 SeptLatest update: 28 Sept 2026, 02:45Source: GDELT · albawaba.netOriginal record - MODERATEL5 · Strategic & political riskSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Rwanda Explained 2026 : Kagame , Tech Ambition , Economy
Rwanda Explained 2026 : Kagame , Tech Ambition , Economy. Reported by riotimesonline.com and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- What happened
- Rwanda Explained 2026 : Kagame , Tech Ambition , Economy. Reported by riotimesonline.com and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: riot.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
RwandaGreat LakesFirst reported: 27 SeptLatest update: 27 Sept 2026, 14:00Source: GDELT · riotimesonline.comOriginal record - MODERATEL5 · Strategic & political riskSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Uganda Explained 2026 : Museveni , Oil Delay and Economy
Uganda Explained 2026 : Museveni , Oil Delay and Economy. Reported by riotimesonline.com and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- What happened
- Uganda Explained 2026 : Museveni , Oil Delay and Economy. Reported by riotimesonline.com and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: riot.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
UgandaGreat LakesFirst reported: 27 SeptLatest update: 27 Sept 2026, 14:00Source: GDELT · riotimesonline.comOriginal record - MODERATEL5 · Strategic & political riskSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Drone strike hits strategic fuel depot in central Sudan
Drone strike hits strategic fuel depot in central Sudan. Reported by radiotamazuj.org and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- What happened
- Drone strike hits strategic fuel depot in central Sudan. Reported by radiotamazuj.org and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: drone strike.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
SudanHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 27 SeptLatest update: 27 Sept 2026, 13:45Source: GDELT · radiotamazuj.orgOriginal record - SEVEREL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource CSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
South Africa: At least 17 killed, 15 injured in mass shooting at entertainment joint
Gauteng police launched a hunt for eight armed suspects after 17 people were killed and 15 wounded in a deadly tavern shooting in Wedela, West Rand District.
- What happened
- Gauteng police launched a hunt for eight armed suspects after 17 people were killed and 15 wounded in a deadly tavern shooting in Wedela, West Rand District.
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: shooting.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
South Africa · South AfricaSouthern AfricaFirst reported: 27 SeptLatest update: 27 Sept 2026, 07:39Source: Tuko (Kenya)Original record - SEVEREL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource CSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Missing activist Collins Otieno found alive, dumped near Kasarani along Thika Road: "He can't speak"
Kenyan activist Collins Otieno was found injured near Kasarani after six days missing, as advocates demand answers over alleged abduction and defender safety.
- What happened
- Kenyan activist Collins Otieno was found injured near Kasarani after six days missing, as advocates demand answers over alleged abduction and defender safety.
- Why it matters
- It may directly affect safe movement, access, personnel, assets or a strategic route.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: abduct.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Kenya · KenyaEast AfricaFirst reported: 26 SeptLatest update: 26 Sept 2026, 14:13Source: Tuko (Kenya)Original record - SEVEREL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
NISA Announces to have killed 12 Al-Shabaab members in an airstrike in Middle Shabelle.
The National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) of Somalia announced that 12 Al-Shabaab members were killed during a planned operation in the Buur-Saruur area of the Middle Shabelle region. NISA stated that the operation took place in Buur-Saruur—located approximately two kilometers southeast of Ali-Gaduud—where the agency had identified the presence of Al-Shabaab members. According to […]
- What happened
- The National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) of Somalia announced that 12 Al-Shabaab members were killed during a planned operation in the Buur-Saruur area of the Middle Shabelle region. NISA stated that the operation took place in Buur-Saruur—located approximately two kilometers southeast of Ali-Gaduud—where the agency had identified the presence of Al-Shabaab members. According to […]
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: airstrike.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Somalia · SomaliaHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 26 SeptLatest update: 26 Sept 2026, 09:49Source: Somaliland StandardOriginal record - SEVEREL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource CSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Escalating Fights in Northern Ethiopia Risk Severe Human Rights Violations: EHRC
Rights Body Urges International Community to Pressure Warring Parties to Negotiation Table The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) warned that flared armed fighting across northern Ethiopia poses severe and compounding risks to human rights. In an official public statement on Friday September 23, 2026, the national rights body confirmed that active armed clashes have erupted […]
- What happened
- Rights Body Urges International Community to Pressure Warring Parties to Negotiation Table The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) warned that flared armed fighting across northern Ethiopia poses severe and compounding risks to human rights. In an official public statement on Friday September 23, 2026, the national rights body confirmed that active armed clashes have erupted […]
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: armed clash.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Ethiopia · EthiopiaHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 27 SeptLatest update: 26 Sept 2026, 07:40Source: The Reporter EthiopiaOriginal record - SEVEREL1 · Conflict & armed groupsSource FSecurity relevance 5/5ReportedAnalyst review required
Eight Dead After Wave of Russian Airstrikes Hit Cities Across Ukraine
Ukraine woke to another punishing wave of Russian drones and missiles, with strikes killing six agricultural workers in the east and two people in Kyiv as the long-range battle between the two sides accelerates. The barrage set off air raid sirens and forced residents to rush for shelter, coming as both Kyiv and Moscow appeared […]
- What happened
- Ukraine woke to another punishing wave of Russian drones and missiles, with strikes killing six agricultural workers in the east and two people in Kyiv as the long-range battle between the two sides accelerates. The barrage set off air raid sirens and forced residents to rush for shelter, coming as both Kyiv and Moscow appeared […]
- Why it matters
- It provides a credible signal of possible change in the operating environment.
- Security relevance
- Direct security event: airstrike.
- What to monitor
- Independent corroboration · Confirmed actor attribution · Operational effects
Somalia · SomaliaHorn of AfricaFirst reported: 25 SeptLatest update: 25 Sept 2026, 11:19Source: JowharOriginal record
Showing 1–24 of 348 matches · Last 30 days · 1 duplicate report collapsed
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Record the threats you are tracking, score likelihood and impact on the standard 5x5 scale, and set the analytical confidence behind each judgement. Entries are held in this browser only — nothing is uploaded — and can be exported as a matrix file for a risk register or briefing pack.
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5x5 matrix
| 5 Severe | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Major | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 20 |
| 3 Moderate | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| 2 Minor | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| 1 Negligible | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 1 Rare | 2 Unlikely | 3 Possible | 4 Likely | 5 Almost certain |
Vertical axis: impact. Horizontal axis: likelihood. Numbers in a cell show how many of your entries sit there.
How the six layers are collected
Records are collected from named public sources, filtered for an Africa nexus, de-duplicated across layers and graded for verification confidence. Read the methodology and source grading.