Content Pillar
Geopolitical Risk
Political trajectory, elections, governance and cross-border dynamics shaping the strategic outlook for governments, investors and NGOs.
43 articles
Bab el-Mandeb Threat Assessment
Threat, vulnerability, exposure, impact and mitigation at the narrow maritime gateway linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
AIS-Based Vessel Activity Analysis
How public AIS observations can support maritime security analysis without overstating vessel identity, intent, affiliation or causation.
Somalia Security Risk: What a Mogadishu VBIED Means for NGOs and Businesses
The methodology is not new; the timing is. Why proximity and predictability, not targeting, drive most staff exposure in Mogadishu, and what changes in the plan.
Horn of Africa Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
Sudan's war, Ethiopia's corridors and Somalia's electoral window are now interacting. A two-quarter planning view, country by country, with the indicators that would change it.
Puntland Security & Political Risk Outlook, 2026
Puntland is not south-central Somalia. Mountain operations, contested federal authority and inter-urban abduction risk, and why authorisation from Mogadishu may not travel.
Planning Around Africa's Election Calendar: The Fortnight Most Organisations Lose
Elections are the most predictable disruption on the continent and the most consistently under-planned. Where the risk window really sits, and how to schedule around it.
Dilemma 03, A Fragmenting International Order: What Weaker Multilateralism Means in Africa
When mediation, peacekeeping and sanctions enforcement weaken, coups, annexations and blockades carry lower cost. Contingency planning has to assume slower international response.
Dilemma 08, Sudan: The War That Is Rewriting the Map of North-East Africa
Parallel administrations, famine conditions and cross-border arms flows make Sudan the continent's most consequential conflict for access and logistics.
Dilemma 10, Somalia: The Transition Gap After External Force Drawdown
Drawdown has created a hold-and-build gap that Al-Shabaab is testing district by district. Movement discipline is the control that still works.
Dilemma 11, The Great Lakes: M23, Regional Forces and the Risk of Interstate War
Eastern DR Congo is now a theatre with regular forces on multiple sides. Corridor closures and airport suspensions arrive with little warning.
Dilemma 12, Shrinking Humanitarian Space: Bureaucratic Access Denial in Africa
Permits, registration reviews, visa refusals and import blocks now constrain access more often than violence does.
Dilemma 14, Climate Stress: Drought, Flood and the Conflict They Multiply
Failed rains, flash floods and cyclones move populations, break roads and sharpen competition over water and pasture.
Dilemma 15, Non-State Armed Actors: Governing Without the State
Taxation, permits and justice delivered by armed groups create compliance exposure that a security policy alone cannot manage.
South Sudan Country Risk Assessment: Politics, Conflict and Access
Subnational conflict, oil-revenue fragility and Sudan spillover, what organisations should plan for in South Sudan, and the controls that hold.
Sudan Country Risk Assessment: Two Authorities, One Emergency
Partitioned control, famine conditions and detention risk, how access, logistics and staff safety must be structured in Sudan's war economy.
Mali Country Risk Assessment: Insurgency, Fuel Interdiction and Regulatory Risk
JNIM pressure towards Bamako, IS Sahel in the Gao axis, and the reporting restrictions that can end an organisation's access overnight.
Burkina Faso Country Risk Assessment: Siege Warfare and Information Scarcity
Blockaded towns, airlift dependency and conscription of critics, planning for the most information-constrained environment in West Africa.
Eritrea Country Risk Assessment: Low Incident Rate, High State Risk
Movement permits, surveillance, national service and regional posture, where the real exposure sits for organisations engaging Eritrea.
Ethiopia Country Risk Assessment: One Country, Several Conflicts
Amhara, Oromia and Tigray on separate trajectories, plus currency reform and shutdown risk, why a single national policy always fails here.
Somalia Country Risk Assessment: Layered Threat, Disciplined Operations
Al-Shabaab targeting, informal taxation, federal-state friction and the transition gap, the assessment behind our Somalia movement rules.
DR Congo Country Risk Assessment: Two Countries, Two Risk Profiles
M23 and ADF in the east, logistics and health emergencies nationwide, and the conflict-financing exposure buried in supply chains.
Libya Country Risk Assessment: Where Due Diligence Is the Security Control
Rival administrations, contested facilities and sanctions exposure, why counterparty screening outranks movement planning in Libya.
Africa's 2026 Elections: The Countries Where Political Risk Could Escalate
Seventeen national and local votes, three risk tiers and the indicators that matter, where Africa's 2026 election calendar could turn into instability.
Sudan's War Is Becoming a Regional Conflict: The Actors Behind the Next Phase
External sponsors, proxy supply lines and border spillover, mapping who shapes Sudan's next phase and how risk transmits outward.
Humanitarian Access in Africa Is Shrinking, Where, Why and What It Means for Aid Operations
Bureaucratic denial, armed-actor taxation and rising attacks on aid workers, mapping the access crisis and what it means for programme delivery.
Somalia's Security Dilemma: Can the Government Hold Territory as Foreign Forces Draw Down?
Hold-and-build capacity, clan militia dependence and the districts most likely to change hands as external support recedes.
When Elections Turn Violent: Africa's 2026–2027 Election Calendar and Where Risk Concentrates
Entrenchment contests, fragile competitive polls and the operational playbook for a dense continental election calendar.
Kenya Political Risk: What the 2027 Election Could Mean for Businesses and NGOs
Coalition realignment, protest policing and fiscal strain ahead of Kenya's 2027 vote, political trajectory, security, business and NGO implications, and what to monitor next.
From Sudan to Somalia: How Gulf Rivalries Are Reshaping Africa's Security picture
Ports, bases and patronage, how Gulf competition is rewiring alignments across the Horn, Red Sea and Sahel.
Africa's Humanitarian Access Crisis: When Security Is No Longer the Main Barrier
Permits, registration reviews and armed-actor taxation are now bigger constraints than violence itself. What that changes for programming.
Critical Minerals, Critical Risk: Africa's Mining Corridors and the New Competition
Cobalt, lithium and copper competition, armed-group control of mineral corridors, and the due diligence questions investors keep skipping.
Africa's Next Migration Crisis May Be Building in the Horn
Drought, conflict displacement and closing routes, the indicators pointing to a larger Horn movement crisis.
Kenya 2027: The Early Warning Signs Security Teams Should Be Watching Now
Coalition churn, protest policing, cost-of-living pressure and the observable indicators that precede election unrest.
M23 and Eastern DRC: Why the Conflict Is Becoming a Regional Security Problem
Territorial control, mineral corridors and cross-border escalation risk between DR Congo, Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi.
Africa's Migration Routes: Smuggling Economies, Border Security and Operational Consequences
How Africa's major migration corridors intersect with armed-group financing, trafficking risk and humanitarian access.
Somalia's Security Environment: What Organisations Should Be Watching in 2026
Al-Shabaab adaptation, federal–state friction, Puntland operations, maritime re-emergence and access, a practitioner's read.
Sudan's War Is Becoming a Regional Security Problem
How Sudan exports risk to the Red Sea, Egypt, Ethiopia, Chad, South Sudan and Libya, and what that means operationally.
Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions: What Could Trigger the Next Regional Crisis?
Actors, triggers, early-warning indicators and three scenarios for escalation in the northern Horn.
Somalia Security Outlook 2027: Key Risks for Organisations Operating in the Country
Federal-state dynamics, Al-Shabaab pressure and coastal security, what international organisations should be planning for in Somalia through 2027.
Mogadishu Security Environment: What International Organisations Need to Know
A practitioner's read of Mogadishu, checkpoints, movement, accommodation, VBIED risk and mitigating measures for organisations with staff on the ground.
Kenya 2027 Elections: Political Risk Scenarios and Business Implications
Three scenarios for Kenya's 2027 election cycle and their implications for security, operations and business continuity.
Ethiopia After Conflict: Security and Investment Risk Assessment
Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, a structured read of the residual security and investment risks facing organisations in Ethiopia.
The Horn of Africa Security picture: 2027 Forecast
Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Sudan and South Sudan, a consolidated 2027 outlook for organisations operating in the Horn.