Content Pillar
Security & Conflict
Terrorism, insurgency and armed-conflict analysis across Africa's highest-risk theatres, tracking actors, tactics and their operational consequences.
31 articles
The Macro Fallacy: Why 'High Risk' Country Labels Are Failing Humanitarian Boards
Why national risk labels cannot explain operational exposure, and how humanitarian leaders can move towards activity-, location- and asset-specific decisions.
Case Study: Building a Defensible Security Decision System in the Horn of Africa
How an international NGO replaced inconsistent movement decisions with shared risk criteria, journey thresholds and accountable escalation, an anonymised practitioner case study.
Case Study: Negotiating Access Along a Contested Somali Corridor
A checkpoint-by-checkpoint map, a single agreed script and one named negotiator per segment, how a stalled distribution route reopened without paying for passage.
Case Study: Rebuilding Journey Management on a High-Exposure Urban Route
Fifty movements a week, no written approval rule. The fix was three questions, a check-in window and a named person who could say no.
Case Study: Fixing the First Hour of Incident Response
The information existed; it just reached the wrong people in the wrong order. A one-page first-hour card and a single reporting line closed the gap.
Mogadishu Operational Risk Assessment, 2026
Threat-by-threat assessment on the UK five-tier scale, the exposure that sits on the journey rather than the compound, and the controls that hold in the city.
Case Study: Partner Vetting That Survives an Audit
Proportionate due diligence on local partners, three tiers, documented reasoning, and a decision the organisation could defend two years later.
Case Study: Verifying Delivery Where Staff Cannot Travel
Third-party monitoring in an area international staff could not reach, sampling, unannounced visits, geotagged evidence and a rule against monitoring your own work.
Case Study: A Crisis Exercise That Found the Real Weaknesses
Three hours, one room, no scoring. The plan was fine, the phone tree, the delegation of authority and the family-liaison role were not.
Case Study: A Site Assessment That Cost Very Little to Act On
Most of the findings on a Horn of Africa compound review needed procedure and habit, not construction, and the cheapest fixes carried the most weight.
Case Study: Turning Early Warning Into a Decision Rather Than a Feeling
Eight named indicators, agreed thresholds and three pre-authorised responses, so a deteriorating environment triggered action instead of debate.
How We Build an Africa OSINT Collection Architecture, Six Layers, One Standard
Open-source coverage of Africa has improved sharply; the constraint is now structure. The six collection layers we run, and the failure mode each one prevents.
Dilemma 05, Drone Warfare: Armed UAV Proliferation Across African Conflicts
Cheap airframes have moved the threat from the frontline to the compound, the airstrip and the convoy. Static site security assumptions no longer hold.
Dilemma 09, The Sahel: Jihadist Expansion Towards Coastal West Africa
Fuel interdiction, blockaded towns and littoral spillover are changing the risk profile of markets previously treated as stable.
Al-Shabaab After the Troop Drawdown: Is Somalia Entering a New Security Phase?
What the drawdown of foreign forces changes about Al-Shabaab's freedom of movement, targeting and financing, and what it means for organisations in Somalia.
The $50 Million Ransom That Helped Fuel al-Qaeda's Sahel Offensive
How large ransom settlements convert hostage-taking into strategic capability for JNIM and its affiliates across the Sahel.
Africa's New Kidnap Economy: How Ransom Payments Are Financing Terrorism
Kidnap-for-ransom as a continental financing system, pricing, brokers, exposure profiles and the controls that actually work.
The Sahel's Security Collapse: What Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger Mean for West Africa
Junta consolidation, insurgent expansion and the transmission of Sahel violence into coastal West Africa.
Terrorist Financing in Africa: Gold, Kidnapping, Smuggling and Informal Economies
Artisanal gold, livestock taxation, fuel smuggling and ransom, how armed groups fund themselves and where compliance exposure sits.
Climate + Conflict + Displacement: Africa's Emerging Compound Security Threat
Where climate shocks, armed conflict and displacement compound each other, and why single-lens risk assessment keeps missing it.
Africa's Intelligence Gap: Why Early Warning Is Failing Before Crises Escalate
Warning exists; action does not. The structural reasons early warning fails in Africa and how to build a desk that works.
The Sahel's Security Crisis Is Changing, What It Means for Organisations Operating in West Africa
From the tri-border area to coastal West Africa: how Sahel violence transmits into road risk, kidnap, supply chains and insurance.
Africa's Borderlands: Why Ungoverned Spaces Drive the Continent's Fastest-Growing Risks
From the Sahel tri-border area to the Kenya–Somalia frontier, why cross-border zones generate Africa's sharpest risk trends.
Kidnapping for Ransom Is Becoming a Strategic Financing Threat in the Sahel
Ransom economics, exposure profiles, hotspots and the crisis-management controls that actually work.
How NGOs Should Build a Security Risk Assessment for Operations in Africa
A ten-step methodology from threat identification to residual-risk acceptance, review triggers and monitoring.
What Does "Critical Risk" Actually Mean? A Guide for Organisations Operating in Africa
How our Critical, High, Moderate and Low ratings are built, and what management action each level should trigger.
Al-Shabaab in 2026: Evolution of an Adaptive Insurgency
How Al-Shabaab has shifted tactics, financing and targeting, and what that means for NGO, corporate and government operations across the Horn.
Entering Africa: Five Security Questions Investors Must Answer First
The five questions every investor should answer before committing capital to an African market, and the risks of skipping them.
Why Country Risk Assessments Fail in African Markets
The methodological blind spots behind country risk products that don't survive contact with the operating environment.
Al-Shabaab's Operational Shift and What It Means for Business
A tactical and strategic review of Al-Shabaab operations and their implications for organisations across the Horn of Africa.
The Intelligence Cycle: A Primer for Security Leaders
How the classical intelligence cycle applies inside corporate security teams, and where it typically breaks down.