Executive summary
Generally permissive for civilian operations, with concentrated risk in the western border districts near the DRC, political and public-order friction around elections, and criminality in Kampala.
Sources · [11] IOM DTM · [2] UCDP
Full report
Key judgement
Generally permissive for civilian operations, with concentrated risk in the western border districts near the DRC, political and public-order friction around elections, and criminality in Kampala.
Sources · [8] Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa) · [11] IOM DTM
Threat context
- ADF-linked attacks and cross-border armed activity affecting western districts near the DRC border, including attacks on villages and roads. - Occasional attacks and attempted attacks in urban centres, with intent against soft targets. - Politically driven public-order events, particularly around election cycles, with the risk of force used against crowds and of restrictions on movement and communications. - Cattle-raiding and armed criminality in parts of Karamoja. - Urban crime in Kampala, including robbery targeting foreigners, and significant road traffic risk on inter-city routes.
Sources · [7] GDELT Project · [10] UKMTO
Vulnerabilities
- Field movement in western districts planned without reference to cross-border armed activity. - Assumption that a permissive country needs no incident procedure or movement thresholds. - Visible association with politically sensitive activity or partners without an assessment of the consequences for staff. - Motorcycle-taxi use and night road movement treated as normal practice.
Sources · [2] UCDP · [5] FEWS NET
Exposure
- Field operations and refugee-hosting districts in the west and south-west, and in Karamoja. - Kampala offices, accommodation and movement, and inter-city road travel. - Public gatherings, and any activity coinciding with electoral events.
Sources · [5] FEWS NET · [8] Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa)
Operational implications
- Casualties from armed attack or crossfire in western border districts. - Injury or death from road traffic collision, including motorcycle-taxi use. - Detention, deregistration or operational restriction following political friction.
Sources · [12] INSO · [3] UN OCHA / ReliefWeb
Rated risks
- Armed attack or crossfire affecting staff in western border districts, likelihood 3/5, impact 4/5. District movement rules; local early-warning indicators; daylight movement; suspension thresholds. - Road traffic collision, including motorcycle-taxi use, likelihood 4/5, impact 4/5. Driver standards; motorcycle-taxi prohibition for work travel; speed policy; night-travel ban; vehicle checks. - Staff caught in public-order events around an election cycle, likelihood 3/5, impact 3/5. Monitoring and notification; movement-pause thresholds; remote-working plan; avoid assembly points. - Administrative or legal restriction on operations, likelihood 3/5, impact 3/5. Keep registration and reporting current; retain legal advice; assess political exposure of activities and partners.
Sources · [12] INSO · [3] UN OCHA / ReliefWeb
Mitigation
- District-level movement rules for the western border and Karamoja, with approval, comms and timing standards. - Road safety controls including a prohibition on motorcycle-taxi use for work movement and a night-travel ban. - Election and public-order planning: monitoring, movement-pause thresholds, remote-working capability and stock buffer. - Registration, reporting and compliance kept current, with legal advice retained before politically sensitive activity. - Incident procedure and contact tree in place and rehearsed, in Kampala as much as in the field.
Residual risk
Low to medium nationally, medium to high in western border districts. Road traffic remains the dominant expected loss.
Sources · [2] UCDP · [5] FEWS NET
Confidence and sources
Confidence: Moderate to high. Reporting is reasonably open and consistent, with less detail on cross-border incidents.. B
- ACLED[1] conflict event data - UN OCHA[3] situation reports and ReliefWeb country pages - Insecurity Insight aid-security incident data - UK FCDO and US State Department travel advice - National and regional media monitoring - Ugandan national media monitoring - UNHCR refugee-response reporting
Analyst assessment from public sources, Reviewed September 2026. Not a substitute for an organisation's own assessment.
Sources · [7] GDELT Project · [10] UKMTO
Key findings
- ADF-linked attacks and cross-border armed activity affecting western districts near the DRC border, including attacks on villages and roads.
- Occasional attacks and attempted attacks in urban centres, with intent against soft targets.
- Politically driven public-order events, particularly around election cycles, with the risk of force used against crowds and of restrictions on movement and communications.
- Casualties from armed attack or crossfire in western border districts.
- Injury or death from road traffic collision, including motorcycle-taxi use.
Analyst assessment
Low to medium nationally, medium to high in western border districts. Road traffic remains the dominant expected loss.
Related reports
Footnotes & sources
- [1] ACLED: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, Africa event recordsL1 Conflict · reliability A
- [2] UCDP: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, organised violence datasetL1 Conflict · reliability A
- [3] UN OCHA / ReliefWeb: Situation reports, access snapshots and humanitarian updatesL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [4] GDACS: Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System alertsL2 Early warning · reliability B
- [5] FEWS NET: Food security outlooks and alertsL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [6] NASA FIRMS / Copernicus: Active fire detections and open satellite imagery for corroborationL3 GEOINT · reliability B
- [7] GDELT Project: Global media event and tone monitoringL5 Strategic · reliability C
- [8] Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa): Regional political and security analysisL5 Strategic · reliability B
- [9] Mazin Intel analyst desk: Practitioner interviews, field reporting and imagery verificationL6 Verification · reliability B
- [10] UKMTO: Maritime incident advisories, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea approachesL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [11] IOM DTM: Displacement Tracking Matrix, movement and displacement flowsL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [12] INSO: NGO safety incident reporting and access advisoriesL1 Conflict · reliability A
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