Africa risk intelligence, consolidated in one view
Threat map, country risk scores by domain, recent incident records, security alerts and analyst reports — maintained across all 54 African states by Mazin Intel's Africa desk.
Analyst-assigned levels per country and category.
Direction of travel across recorded incident tempo.
Escalation signals and forward risk outlook.
Record analytics — published analyst records
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By severity
By category — select a bar
Most-reported countries — select a bar
Records published, last 14 days
What the dashboard covers
Africa risk overview
Interactive map of overall risk across Africa. Focus the map and use the arrow keys to move between countries, Home and End for the first and last country, Enter or Space to open the focused country profile, and Escape to leave the map. Press the question mark key, or use the keyboard controls button, to show or hide the full list of shortcuts. A text list of every country and its rating follows the map.
- Algeria. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: terrorism moderate.
- Angola. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- Benin. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: maritime security severe.
- Botswana. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: cyber threats moderate.
- Burkina Faso. Overall risk: Critical, severity 4 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism critical, travel risk critical, violent & organised crime critical, and 9 further elevated factors. Analyst note: Junta rule; jihadist expansion.
- Burundi. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: political instability severe, civil unrest & protest severe, disinformation & influence ops severe.
- Cabo Verde. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: maritime security moderate.
- Cameroon. Overall risk: Severe, severity 3 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism severe, conflict zones severe, travel risk severe, and 5 further elevated factors. Analyst note: Anglophone crisis; northern insecurity.
- Central African Republic. Overall risk: Severe, severity 3 of 4. Key risk factors: political instability severe, conflict zones severe, travel risk severe, and 6 further elevated factors.
- Chad. Overall risk: Severe, severity 3 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism severe, political instability severe, conflict zones severe, and 9 further elevated factors.
- Comoros. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- Côte d'Ivoire. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: terrorism moderate.
- Djibouti. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: maritime security severe.
- DR Congo. Overall risk: Critical, severity 4 of 4. Key risk factors: conflict zones critical, travel risk critical, violent & organised crime critical, and 9 further elevated factors. Analyst note: M23/ADF in eastern provinces.
- Egypt. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: maritime security severe. Analyst note: Sinai insurgency contained.
- Equatorial Guinea. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: political instability severe, civil unrest & protest severe, disinformation & influence ops severe.
- Eritrea. Overall risk: Severe, severity 3 of 4. Key risk factors: political instability severe, travel risk severe, violent & organised crime severe, and 2 further elevated factors.
- Eswatini. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- Ethiopia. Overall risk: Severe, severity 3 of 4. Key risk factors: political instability severe, conflict zones severe, travel risk severe, and 8 further elevated factors. Analyst note: Tigray recovery, Amhara/Oromia unrest.
- Gabon. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- Gambia. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: maritime security moderate.
- Ghana. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: terrorism moderate.
- Guinea. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: political instability severe, civil unrest & protest severe, disinformation & influence ops severe.
- Guinea-Bissau. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: political instability severe, civil unrest & protest severe.
- Kenya. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism severe, cyber threats severe, disinformation & influence ops severe. Analyst note: Cross-border spillover; urban crime.
- Lesotho. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- Liberia. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- Libya. Overall risk: Severe, severity 3 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism severe, political instability severe, conflict zones severe, and 10 further elevated factors. Analyst note: Fragmented governance.
- Madagascar. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- Malawi. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- Mali. Overall risk: Critical, severity 4 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism critical, travel risk critical, violent & organised crime critical, and 9 further elevated factors. Analyst note: AQIM/JNIM activity in north.
- Mauritania. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: terrorism moderate.
- Mauritius. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: maritime security moderate.
- Morocco. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: maritime security moderate.
- Mozambique. Overall risk: Severe, severity 3 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism severe, conflict zones severe, travel risk severe, and 5 further elevated factors. Analyst note: ISCAP activity in Cabo Delgado.
- Namibia. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: maritime security moderate.
- Niger. Overall risk: Severe, severity 3 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism severe, political instability severe, conflict zones severe, and 9 further elevated factors. Analyst note: Post-coup security realignment.
- Nigeria. Overall risk: Severe, severity 3 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism severe, conflict zones severe, maritime security severe, and 9 further elevated factors. Analyst note: Banditry; Boko Haram; oil theft.
- Republic of the Congo. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- Rwanda. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- São Tomé and Príncipe. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: maritime security moderate.
- Senegal. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: terrorism moderate.
- Seychelles. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. Key risk factors: maritime security severe.
- Sierra Leone. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate.
- Somalia. Overall risk: Critical, severity 4 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism critical, travel risk critical, violent & organised crime critical, and 10 further elevated factors. Analyst note: Al-Shabaab activity; federal-state tensions.
- South Africa. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: cyber threats severe, disinformation & influence ops severe.
- South Sudan. Overall risk: Critical, severity 4 of 4. Key risk factors: political instability critical, conflict zones critical, travel risk critical, and 8 further elevated factors. Analyst note: Ongoing intercommunal violence.
- Sudan. Overall risk: Critical, severity 4 of 4. Key risk factors: political instability critical, conflict zones critical, travel risk critical, and 9 further elevated factors. Analyst note: Active civil war.
- Tanzania. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: terrorism moderate.
- Togo. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: maritime security severe.
- Tunisia. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: terrorism moderate.
- Uganda. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: terrorism severe.
- Western Sahara. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: political instability moderate. Analyst note: Disputed territory — status unresolved; not counted as a sovereign state.
- Zambia. Overall risk: Low, severity 1 of 4. No factors rated severe or critical. Highest factor: cyber threats moderate.
- Zimbabwe. Overall risk: Moderate, severity 2 of 4. Key risk factors: political instability severe, civil unrest & protest severe, disinformation & influence ops severe.
Rating distribution — Overall risk
How analyst-assigned indicators are spread across covered African states for the selected category, and which incident types appear most often in the records shown on this page. Indicators are judgements from public reporting, not measurements.
States by indicator level
Counted across every covered state for the selected category.
- Critical6
- Severe9
- Moderate26
- Low14
Incident records by type
Incident records currently held for this dashboard, grouped by category.
Incident timeline
View all- 12m ago·Red Sea·CriticalAnti-ship missile targets commercial tanker in Bab el-MandebBab el-Mandeb Strait · Red Sea corridor
- 47m ago·Piracy·HighAttempted boarding of bulk carrier off Eyl coast80nm east of Eyl · Somalia
- 96m ago·Terrorism·CriticalVBIED detonates near government complex in MogadishuKM4 junction, Mogadishu · Somalia
- 143m ago·Terrorism·HighJNIM ambush on military convoy in Sahel triangleTillabéri region · Niger
- 205m ago·Armed conflict·CriticalFresh RSF–SAF clashes reported in El FasherEl Fasher, North Darfur · Sudan
- 268m ago·Red Sea·HighUSV sighted transiting southern Red SeaSouthern Red Sea approaches · Red Sea corridor
- 312m ago·Cyber·HighRansomware campaign targeting regional banking sectorMultiple · Kenya
- 355m ago·Civil unrest·ModerateCost-of-living protests planned in Nairobi CBDNairobi CBD · Kenya
Security alerts
Client portal- CriticalSomalia·20735d agoVBIED detonation in Mogadishu — KM4 corridor
Client movement in Mogadishu paused pending route clearance. Journey management protocols reactivate only on written confirmation from the security manager. Threat level for the corridor is held at CRITICAL: an attack is highly likely in the near future.
- ModerateKenya·20735d agoCost-of-living protests — Nairobi CBD
Avoid the CBD between 10:00 and 17:00. Alternate routes briefed to drivers and office access moved to the secondary gate. Threat level MODERATE: disruption is possible but not likely outside the announced march routes.
- SevereMozambique·20735d agoCabo Delgado security posture raised
ISCAP activity reported in Macomia district. LNG project clients on heightened posture; non-essential movement outside camps discouraged. Threat level SUBSTANTIAL: an attack is likely in the affected districts.
- SevereKenya·20736d agoRansomware campaign targeting the financial sector
LockBit-derivative tooling observed against mid-tier banks. Advisory with indicators of compromise pushed to portfolio CISO contacts. Threat level SUBSTANTIAL for exposed sectors; verified against multiple reporting streams.
- CriticalMozambique·20736d agoCyclone landfall — Nampula
Category 4 landfall overnight with sustained damage to coastal infrastructure. Duty-of-care check-ins requested for all deployed staff by 09:00 CAT. Posture equivalent to CRITICAL: severe impact is highly likely to continue for 48 hours.
Client reports
Al-Shabaab operational tempo, federal-state politics, coastal security and business continuity outlook.
Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania and Somalia developments with duty-of-care implications.
Latest anti-ship activity, USV threats and BMP-aligned recommendations for transiting vessels.
JNIM and ISSP posture, junta trajectory and operating recommendations for extractive and NGO clients.