Threat actor analysis

Africa threat actors

The armed groups and maritime networks that drive most corporate, shipping and war-risk exposure across Africa and the Red Sea.

Analytical summaries based on public reporting (UN Security Council panels, ACLED, UKMTO, IMB, EU naval missions and regional media). Trends are Mazin Intel judgements, reviewed October 2026, not live data.

Al-Shabaab

Contested

Jihadist insurgency (al-Qaeda affiliate) · Somalia, Kenya border areas

Activity: Complex attacks in Mogadishu, IEDs on supply routes, taxation and extortion of commerce, cross-border raids into Kenya.
Commercial exposure: Hotels, government-linked sites, logistics convoys and port-adjacent business in Mogadishu; road freight in south-central Somalia.

Somalia dashboard →Kenya dashboard →

JNIM (Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin)

Rising

Jihadist coalition (al-Qaeda affiliate) · Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger; coastal West African borders

Activity: Blockades of towns and highways, attacks on security forces, kidnap for ransom, spread towards Benin and Togo.
Commercial exposure: Mining sites, fuel and freight corridors, foreign nationals at risk of kidnap.

Mali dashboard →Burkina Faso dashboard →Benin dashboard →

Islamic State Sahel Province

Stable

Jihadist insurgency (Islamic State) · Mali–Niger–Burkina Faso tri-border

Activity: Mass-casualty attacks on villages and military posts, competition with JNIM.
Commercial exposure: Remote extractive and infrastructure projects; overland travel in the Liptako-Gourma area.

Niger dashboard →Mali dashboard →

ISWAP and Boko Haram (JAS)

Stable

Jihadist insurgency · North-east Nigeria, Lake Chad Basin

Activity: Attacks on military bases and roads, abductions, extortion of fishing and farming economies.
Commercial exposure: Aid and logistics movements in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa; Cameroon Far North and Chad lake shore.

Nigeria dashboard →Cameroon dashboard →Chad dashboard →

Rapid Support Forces (RSF)

Contested

Paramilitary force in civil war with the Sudanese Armed Forces · Sudan, especially Darfur and Kordofan

Activity: Sieges of cities, drone and artillery strikes, looting, attacks on infrastructure.
Commercial exposure: Port Sudan logistics, Red Sea coast cargo, cross-border trade with Chad, South Sudan and Egypt.

Sudan dashboard →

Houthi movement (Ansar Allah)

Contested

Armed political movement with anti-ship missile and drone capability · Yemen; Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, Gulf of Aden

Activity: Missile, drone and boarding attacks on merchant shipping since late 2023, including sinkings and a hijacking.
Commercial exposure: War-risk premiums, route diversion via the Cape, Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan port calls.

Djibouti dashboard →Eritrea dashboard →

Somali piracy groups

Rising

Criminal maritime networks · Somali Basin, Gulf of Aden, Puntland and central Somali coast

Activity: Renewed hijacking of dhows and merchant vessels since late 2023, used as motherships.
Commercial exposure: Slow, low-freeboard vessels and fishing craft; crew kidnap and ransom; hull and K&R cover.

Somalia dashboard →

Gulf of Guinea piracy networks

Declining

Criminal maritime networks · Niger Delta, Gulf of Guinea

Activity: Crew kidnapping, oil theft, armed robbery at anchorages; lower than the 2020 peak.
Commercial exposure: Offshore supply vessels, tankers at anchor, crew welfare and K&R exposure.

Nigeria dashboard →

ADF / Islamic State Central Africa Province

Stable

Jihadist insurgency (Islamic State) · Eastern DR Congo, western Uganda

Activity: Massacres of civilians in North Kivu and Ituri, occasional attacks inside Uganda.
Commercial exposure: Road travel around Beni and Butembo, cross-border trade and humanitarian movements.

DR Congo dashboard →Uganda dashboard →

M23 / AFC

Contested

Rebel movement · North and South Kivu, DR Congo

Activity: Control of Goma and Bukavu areas, parallel administration, taxation of mineral trade.
Commercial exposure: Mineral supply chains (sanctions and due-diligence risk), airport and border closures.

DR Congo dashboard →Rwanda dashboard →

Islamic State Mozambique (Ahlu Sunnah wal-Jama'a)

Stable

Jihadist insurgency (Islamic State) · Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique

Activity: Raids on villages and roads, attacks near LNG project areas, coastal movement by boat.
Commercial exposure: LNG and mining projects, coastal shipping and supply routes, Mozambique Channel.

Mozambique dashboard →

Africa threat actors

Al-Shabaab

JNIM (Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin)

Islamic State Sahel Province

ISWAP and Boko Haram (JAS)

Rapid Support Forces (RSF)

Houthi movement (Ansar Allah)

Somali piracy groups

Gulf of Guinea piracy networks

ADF / Islamic State Central Africa Province

M23 / AFC

Islamic State Mozambique (Ahlu Sunnah wal-Jama'a)

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